Category Archives: Articles

Couches, cat ladies, and J. D. Vance

Trump’s VP pick has had an inauspicious debut.

Let me say this right up front: In no part of Hillbilly Elegy did J. D. Vance confess to having sex with a couch. In fact, we have no reliable reports of Vance sexually abusing any piece of furniture. Ever. He has not been banned from Ikea. The clip of him singing a love song to a couch is fake; the lip movements don’t even match the audio. If you search on the #CouchHumper hashtag, all you’ll get is misinformation. Are we clear on that?

But somehow this week the mythical Vance/couch tryst became one of the funniest examples in the history of framing. It started on social media, with a tweet providing exact page numbers for the confessional excerpt. If you didn’t happen to have a copy of Hillbilly Elegy handy, how could you check? Surely nobody would just make something like that up, would they? [1]

Largely because of that specific referencing, the rumor began to take off — I even believed it myself at first — to the point that it needed to be debunked. So AP published a fact-check (since removed) which it headlined: “No, JD Vance did not have sex with a couch.”

As any fan of George Lakoff knows, the first law of debunking misinformation is: Don’t put the lie in the headline. The reasoning is simple: Directly negating a frame invokes the frame. In Lakoff’s famous example, “Don’t think of an elephant” invariably makes you think of an elephant. Until this week, the most famous real-life violation of Lakoff’s rule was Richard Nixon’s immortal denial “I’m not a crook.” If you had never before considered whether Nixon might be a crook, you did then.

Well, lots of people who don’t delve deeply into social media, and so hadn’t heard the rumor at all, do read AP headlines. And they immediately thought: J. D. Vance? A couch? What’s up with that? And then, even though they didn’t have time to read the article, they wondered what exactly was wrong about the rumor. Did Vance just flirt with the couch? Did the couch misinterpret his intentions? Maybe he was napping on the couch and had a wet dream. That’s embarrassing, but it’s innocent; it could happen to any young man.

A few people who made the early couch memes may have believed the claim was true, but before long everybody knew it was invented. And yet the jokes just kept rolling in a tone of OK-it’s-false-but-I’m-having-too-much-fun. [2]

I am still looking for a social psychologist who can explain why this has been so enjoyable. But in the meantime I’ll take a stab at it. I think the message here is: “See? We can lie too.”

Democrats are sick to death of Trump and his minions pushing lies that they know are lies, like that the 2020 election was stolen, or Kamala isn’t a citizen, or Democrats support murdering babies after they’re born, or other countries have sent their prison population to the US, and hundreds of others. Mike Johnson is a lawyer, so he has to know that his Harris-will-have-trouble-getting-on-the-ballot claims are bogus, but he makes them anyway.

We’re sick to death of answering stuff like that with facts, only to watch the lie propagate in spite of the facts. So you want to lie? Fine. Our lie is funnier and more viral than yours.

I’ll be interested to see whether people start consciously using it that way, responding to right-wing BS with Vance-and-the-couch claims, and, when challenged, saying, “Oh, I thought you had started a lying contest.”


Another reason we’re all being so merciless with the couch jokes is that other stuff emerged this week: stuff Vance really did say that personally insulted millions of us, and left us feeling like “I dare you to say that to my face, you couch-humper.”

In one, he disparaged women who decide not to have children (like my wife) as

childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too

In another, he proposed that people without children (like me) should have less voting power than parents, because we “don’t have as much of an investment in the future of this country”.

How does it make any sense that we’ve turned our country over to people who don’t really have a direct stake in it?

Wow. What a judgmental, clueless thing to say. J. D. Vance has never met me, but he’s sure that I don’t care about the future, that I couldn’t possibly care like he does, because my only connection to the future is through my sister’s kids and grandkids, the children of my close friends, the kids in my church community, the students I’ve taught, the coworkers I’ve mentored, and my membership in the human race. Kamala Harris is even a stepmother to her husband’s children, but she’s one of the childless cat ladies Vance called out by name. Apparently, step-parenting doesn’t count either.

Another childless person he called out by name was Pete Buttigieg, whose adopted twins are nearly three now. But at the time

Chasten and I had been through a fairly heartbreaking setback in our adoption journey. He couldn’t have known that, but maybe that’s why you shouldn’t be talking about other people’s children. [3]

In an interview Sunday with Jen Psaki, Pete offered a more abstract perspective on Vance’s attitude.

He seems to view everything in terms of the negative. … I think a lot of us who have had kids would certainly say that that experience opens you to a new way of thinking about the world. But he doesn’t talk about it in those terms. He talks about how anybody who doesn’t have kids is less than, that their perspectives have less value, which is a really strange take.

Precisely. If Vance wants to wax poetic about how parenthood has changed him for the better, I’m happy for him. But if he wants to project onto me the benighted mindset he had before becoming a father, or (based on that projection) assign me a correspondingly lesser role in the nation we share, I’ve got a problem with that.

And let’s be clear: Projection is the key concept here. Vance’s attack is actually a confession. He doesn’t care about the future beyond how it affects his own biological descendants. Caring about other people’s kids, or about your community more broadly, is so foreign to him that he can’t even imagine how people like me can do it.

Such a me-and-mine worldview perfectly explains his position on climate change. If he can leave his own children well fixed by selling out to fossil fuel companies, that sounds pretty good to him, even if it condemns everyone else’s kids to an apocalyptic hellscape.

His attempts to clean this up only doubled down.

I’ve got nothing against cats. I’ve got nothing against dogs. … People are focusing so much on the sarcasm and not on the substance of what I said, and the substance of what I said, Megyn, I’m sorry, it’s true.

But he wasn’t being “sarcastic”. He was being an asshole. He has ignorantly insulted me and millions of people like me, and when it was pointed out to him, he wouldn’t apologize. So the insult stands.

Do you want an asshole to be vice president of United States?


But OK, let’s put aside the insults and assholery and look at what Vance was proposing, which is — let’s face it — just a dumb unworkable idea: Children get votes, which their parents get to cast. So if Mom and Dad disagree — it is OK for a woman to disagree with her husband, isn’t it? — which one gets to cast the kids’ votes? If Mom and Dad separate with joint custody, where do the votes go? And think about those stereotypic welfare moms that Republicans love to scapegoat, the ones who keep having kids just to get more welfare. Do they get extra votes? If I’m an undocumented immigrant, but my “anchor baby” is an American citizen, can I cast her vote?

The whole idea is stupid. Clearly Vance just says stuff without thinking it through.


Minnesota Governor Tim Walz burnished his Harris-VP credentials by applying a term that has stuck: weird. If you want to say that Vance’s ideas are scary or stupid, I can’t argue with you. But the main thing they are is weird. Here’s an example of the far-out scenarios that hatch in Vance’s mind, and the kinds of things he justifies with these bizarre fantasies. [4]

Let’s say Roe v Wade is overruled. Ohio bans abortion … let’s say in 2024. And then every day, George Soros sends a 747 to Columbus to load up disproportionately Black women to get them to go have abortions in California. … And if that happens, do you need some federal response to prevent it from happening? … I’m pretty sympathetic to that actually.

Federal response like what exactly? Banning pregnant women from crossing state lines? Making women take pregnancy tests before getting on interstate flights? What? Suppose a pregnant Ohio State student flies home to California for Thanksgiving and miscarries while she’s there. How can she prove she didn’t get an abortion? What happens to her?

I’m sure Vance’s musings would sound perfectly normal in the Republic of Gilead. But not here. In America, they’re weird.


[1] Apparently, people have been making stuff like this up for a long time. In Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail, Hunter S. Thompson told this story about Lyndon Johnson.

The race was close and Johnson was getting worried.  Finally he told his campaign manager to start a massive rumor campaign about his opponent’s life-long habit of enjoying carnal knowledge of his own barnyard sows.

“Christ, we can’t get a way with calling him a pig-fucker,” the campaign manager protested.  “Nobody’s going to believe a thing like that.”

“I know,” Johnson replied.  “But let’s make the sonofabitch deny it.”

[2] Rep. Jack Kimble is often amusing, but he’s not a real congressman. California’s 54th district does not exist.

[3] Pete is being generous. Yes, Vance couldn’t have known at the time that Buttigieg and his husband were having trouble adopting. But he knows now, and hasn’t offered any kind of apology.

I haven’t found any direct statement of Vance’s views on same-sex marriage, or adoptions by same-sex couples, but he opposed the Respect for Marriage Act that would have codified marital rights for same-sex couples, and many of his “pro-family” statements use phrases that are also used by anti-gay hate groups. So it’s possible, even likely, that Vance not only thinks Pete should have second-class citizenship, but that he opposes any attempt by gays and lesbians to qualify for first-class citizenship by getting married and adopting children.

[4] Lots of Republican proposals are justified by similarly bizarre fantasies. We have to ban late-term abortions, for example, because of the possibility that some woman might carry a healthy fetus for nearly nine months, and then choose an abortion at the last minute on a whim. Who does that?

Or we need to ban trans athletes from high school and college sports, because women’s programs could be overrun by men pretending to be women. How many trans athletes do they think are out there? Are they dominating any sport? Is any women’s program in America being overrun by them? Can Republicans name even one trans athlete whose motivation is anything like what they’ve described?

The Two Kinds of Unity

Unity can arise in two very different ways: when a group of equals recognize their common interests and purposes, or through dominance and submission. Guess which kind of unity Trump called for Thursday night.


Shortly after Donald Trump’s ear was barely grazed by a bullet, piece of shrapnel, or whatever it was, he announced that he was rewriting his convention speech to call for Unity.

It is a chance to bring the country together. I was given that chance.

The media dutifully reported this intention, imagining, as they so often do, that Trump was about to mature and become presidential. Friday morning, some headlines around the country echoed Trump’s call for unity, as if he had actually made one. Parker Malloy collected the evidence:

She commented:

The notion of a Trump “pivot” is as old as his political career. Since 2015, the media has repeatedly predicted — and prematurely celebrated — moments when Trump supposedly transformed into a more measured, presidential figure. These predictions have consistently proven to be mirages, disappearing as quickly as they formed.

When the mainstream media realized the speech wasn’t what they had predicted, they started interpreting it as two speeches at war with each other (which at least would explain why it was twice as long as a typical acceptance speech).

The “new” Donald Trump soothed and silenced the nation for 28 minutes last night. Then the old Trump returned and bellowed, barked and bored America for 64 minutes more.

This interpretation is misguided. Trump gave one speech, with a single theme: unity, but not the kind of unity politicians in a democratic republic usually call for.

Pundits misinterpret Trump when they refuse to recognize what he is: a sociopath. As such, Trump has no concept of what we usually mean by national unity: A broad consensus of citizens coming to recognize their common interests and purposes, and using that recognition to put aside their previous conflicts and mutual distrust.

The most obvious examples of unity in our history come after shocking disasters like Pearl Harbor or 9-11. Republicans did not instantly find love in their hearts for FDR, and Democrats similarly did not love W. But they recognized that all Americans faced a common threat and needed to move with a common purpose.

Admittedly, moments like that are rare, and the attempted assassination of Trump didn’t rise to that level. But nonetheless there are common purposes Trump could have invoked and built on.

Hardly anyone likes the level of hostility that currently exists in American politics. We’ve fallen a long way from that moment in the 2008 campaign when John McCain corrected a questioner who said she couldn’t trust Barack Obama because “he’s an Arab”.

“No ma’am,” McCain politely but firmly replied, “He’s a decent family man, a citizen, who I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. And that’s what this campaign is all about.”

We’re also past the moment that same year when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former Speaker Newt Gingrich made an ad together about addressing climate change.

Nonetheless, there is still a lot to build common cause around. A substantial majority of Americans in each party want our children to get educated, and to be able to find productive places in a prosperous economy. We want our basic infrastructure — roads, electrical power, communications, etc. — to work flawlessly. We want clean water and breathable air. We want sick people to get care and old people to live their final years in dignity. We want to be safe from crime. We want to live in peace. We want our country to do well in international competition, and not to fall behind China (or anyone else) either economically or militarily. We want to help our fellow Americans when natural disasters strike. We want to be able to take pride in our country, and to believe that oppressed people around the world see us as a beacon of hope.

We often lose sight of these common intentions, but we shouldn’t. How to accomplish any of these goals leads to serious arguments — like whether the government or the market should take the lead — many of which are hard to resolve. So there would still be plenty of room in our politics for “disagreements on fundamental issues”. But there is a lot to build unity around, if we would choose to do so.

Donald Trump, however, doesn’t live in a world where that kind of unity is possible, or even makes sense. To a sociopath, all relationships are built around dominance and submission. In every interaction, somebody wins and somebody loses. Win/win is just not a thing.

This view runs far deeper than just his politics. The Art of Deal, for example, is about winning every negotiation, not about building mutually beneficial long-term relationships with clients, employees, or suppliers. He often refused to pay small contractors who worked on his casinos and clubs, or he bullied them into taking less than their contracts called for. (They will never deal with him again, but so what? He won.) The background for his recent fraud trial was that banks would no longer offer him competitive rates without special guarantees, which he verified through false documentation.

Or take a look at his cabinet picks from 2017: Mike Pence, Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, Steve Mnuchin, Jeff Sessions, Mike Pompeo, Ryan Zinke, Sonny Perdue, Wilbur Ross, Alexander Acosta, Tom Price, Ben Carson, Elain Chao, Betsy DeVos, Rick Perry, John Kelly, David Schulkin, Nikki Haley, Scott Pruitt, Mick Mulvaney, Robert Lighthizer, Linda McMahon, and Andrew Puzder. Forget about whether any of them will serve again should he be reelected; how many of them are even supporting him now? Why did he even need a new vice president?

Trump doesn’t do mutually beneficial relationships that build trust over time. He uses people until their usefulness is exhausted, then he discards them as “losers” or denies that he ever really knew them.

Similarly, NATO has never made sense to him, because it’s about countries banding together for mutual protection. In his mind, though, if we’re not taking advantage of them, they must be taking advantage of us. Many of the fantasy sir-stories he tells during his rallies are about him expressing dominance and other world leaders submitting. Here’s one in his convention speech:

For years and years when I first came in, they said President Obama tried to get [gang members we wanted to deport] to go back and [other countries] wouldn’t accept them. They’d put planes on the runway so you couldn’t land the plane. They’d close the roads so you couldn’t take the buses; they’d all have to turn back.

As soon as I said no more economic aid of any kind to any country that does that, they called back and they said, “Sir, it would be our great honor to take M.S. 13. We love them very much. We love them very much, sir. We’ll take them back.”

He reinterprets his greatest diplomatic blunder — tearing up the Obama agreement that would have kept Iran from getting nuclear weapons, then utterly failing to get the “better deal” he said was possible — as simply not having enough time for his attempted domination to take effect. (Because of course the country that was willing to lose hundreds of thousands of soldiers in its war with Iraq would crumble under his economic threats.)

I told China and other countries, “If you buy from Iran, we will not let you do any business in this country, and we will put tariffs on every product you do send in of 100 percent or more.” And they said to me, “Well, I think that’s about it.” They weren’t going to buy any oil. And they were ready to make a deal. Iran was going to make a deal with us.

And then we had that horrible, horrible result that we’ll never let happen again. The election result. We’re never going to let that happen again. They used Covid to cheat. We’re never going to let it happen again. And they took off all the sanctions, and they did everything possible for Iran and now Iran is very close to having a nuclear weapon, which would have never happened.

Because to Trump, that’s what relationship is all about: dominance and submission. If you’re not the predator, you’re the prey.

So it should have been immediately obvious what kind of national unity Trump would call for in his convention speech: If you’ve been resisting his dominance, it’s time for you to recognize that you’re beaten and submit.

The opening part of Trump’s speech, the 28 minutes Axios liked, sounded like common-purpose unity, if that’s what you were primed to hear.

I stand before you this evening with a message of confidence, strength and hope. Four months from now, we will have an incredible victory, and we will begin the four greatest years in the history of our country.

Together, we will launch a new era of safety, prosperity and freedom for citizens of every race, religion, color and creed.

The discord and division in our society must be healed. We must heal it quickly. As Americans, we are bound together by a single fate and a shared destiny. We rise together. Or we fall apart.

I am running to be president for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America.

But it is also consistent with the sociopathic unity of dominance and submission, as the second part of the speech made clear. He wasn’t reaching out to the other half of America, he was demanding its surrender.

And we must not criminalize dissent or demonize political disagreement, which is what’s been happening in our country lately, at a level that nobody has ever seen before. In that spirit, the Democrat party should immediately stop weaponizing the justice system and labeling their political opponent as an enemy of democracy. … If Democrats want to unify our country, they should drop these partisan witch hunts, which I’ve been going through for approximately eight years. And they should do that without delay and allow an election to proceed that is worthy of our people. We’re going to win it anyway.

He lamented what has been happening to his sons, who were fellow defendants in the fraud lawsuit that he lost (because a jury of ordinary Americans found that he and his sons committed fraud).

[Eric is] such a good young man. He went through a lot of trouble, and Don, last night, was incredible. They went through so much trouble. They got subpoenaed more than any people probably in the history of the United States. Every week they get another subpoena from the Democrats. Crazy Nancy Pelosi, the whole thing. Just boom, boom, boom.

They’ve got to stop that because they’re destroying our country. We have to work on making America great again, not on beating people. And we won. We beat them in all. We beat them on the impeachments. We beat them on the indictments. We beat them. But the time that you have to spend, the time that you have to spend. If they would devote that genius to helping our country, we’d have a much stronger and better country.

Got that? Everyone has to stop focusing on beating people, but I beat you. You don’t win; I win. So stop trying to make me obey laws or holding me accountable for my crimes. Submit. And then our country can move forward in unity.

If we do that, if we submit to Trump, he offers the vision that he can become powerful enough to dominate others on our behalf.

For too long, our nation has settled for too little. We settled for too little. We’ve given everything to other nations, to other people. You have been told to lower your expectations and to accept less for your families.

I am here tonight with the opposite message: Your expectations are not big enough. They’re not big enough. It is time to start expecting and demanding the best leadership in the world, leadership that is bold, dynamic, relentless and fearless. We can do that.

We are Americans. Ambition is our heritage. Greatness is our birthright.

But as long as our energies are spent fighting each other, our destiny will remain out of reach. And that’s not acceptable. We must instead take that energy and use it to realize our country’s true potential — and write our own thrilling chapter of the American story.

Trump closed by recalling past American glories.

Together, these patriots soldiered on and endured, and they prevailed. Because they had faith in each other, faith in their country, and above all, they had faith in their God.

Just like our ancestors, we must now come together, rise above past differences. Any disagreements have to be put aside, and go forward united as one people, one nation, pledging allegiance to one great, beautiful — I think it’s so beautiful — American flag.

But you will search this text in vain to find any indication that Trump himself is putting aside past differences. He’s still talking about “crazy Nancy Pelosi” and refusing to recognize any positive purpose (like mitigating climate change or trying to limit Covid deaths) that Biden might have been trying to achieve with his policies. And if you don’t share “faith in their God”, well, you just don’t count.

Even Sunday, after Biden withdrew from the race, Trump could not be gracious, and continued to lie about Biden and his record.

Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve – And never was! He only attained the position of President by lies, Fake News, and not leaving his Basement. All those around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t – And now, look what he’s done to our Country, with millions of people coming across our Border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly.

So no, putting aside differences is not for him, it’s on me and on you. We just need to get in line and submit. Only then will America have the kind of unity Trump wants.

There is a word for this kind of unity, but not an English word: gleichschaltung. It’s an old German engineering term, for when you wire a bunch of electrical circuits together under a common master switch. It got applied to German politics in 1933, for reasons that you may recall from history books.

Don’t Ignore the Republican Platform

Trump designed Project 2025 to be deniable. But the Republican platform isn’t deniable, and it’s bad enough.


Recently a lot of attention is being paid to Project 2025, which I warned you about last August. Project 2025 is a massive 900-page plan for the second Trump administration to hit the ground running next January, together with a database of loyal MAGA Republicans to staff it, and a process by which Trump acolytes can declare their fealty in hopes of landing a government job.

In essence, Project 2025 plays two familiar roles: The 900-page doorstop is a very detailed party platform, and the staffing database resembles what a presidential transition team might do — enlarged by Trump’s plan to “demolish the Deep State” by circumventing civil service requirements and appointing over 50K people, rather than the usual 4K or so.

What’s different about Project 2025 is that (by farming the effort out to a consortium of conservative groups headed by The Heritage Foundation), Trump has made the whole effort deniable. So if something in the 900 pages terrifies you, like that it will get rid of all the people in the Justice Department or the Pentagon who thwarted Trump’s post-2020-defeat coup, or that it reverses all the rules that protect LGBTQ people from discrimination, Trump can tell you not to worry. It’s not his platform or his transition team, it’s those guys.

I know nothing about Project 2025. I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.

Meanwhile, if you’re a MAGA cultist and you love the stuff in the 900 pages, Trump gives you a wink and a nod: Sure, that’s what we’re going to do, but I can’t say that just now.

In other words, Project 2025 is designed to be the mother of all dog whistles. Undecided voters are supposed to hear one thing, while MAGA cultists hear something else. If Trump has one superpower, it’s his ability to get people to believe that he’s telling them the truth and lying to the other guy.

Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts understands how the game is played:

No hard feelings from any of us at Project 2025 about the statement, because we understand Trump is the standard-bearer and he’s making a political and tactical decision here.

I’m not going to do an elaborate debunking of Trump’s Sargeant-Schultz-like I-know-nothing claim, because other people have done that. Suffice it to say that Trump knows a lot about Project 2025, he knows the people behind it, he has everything to do with them, and he agrees with what they’re saying, especially the parts that are ridiculous and abysmal.

But OK, Trump has his superpower and we’re being naive if we ignore it. Lots of people are going to believe his denials and accuse us of being afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome if we are skeptical. So let’s leave the details of Project 2025 for another day and consider the Trump plans that aren’t deniable: the draft platform for the Republican Party, whose national convention is meeting in Milwaukee at this very moment. I don’t think even Trump could get away with saying that he knows nothing about the Republican Party or who’s behind it, so let’s examine what’s in the party platform.

The platform is a 16-page document with a three-page preamble, ten pages of elaboration, and three pages of filler. The introduction culminates in “twenty promises that we will accomplish very quickly when we win the White House and Republican Majorities in the House and Senate”. The promises are in all-caps, as if they were Trump posts on Truth Social. Most of them probably were at some point.

Inflation. A number of the promises are deceptively simple, like #3 “End inflation and make America affordable again.” (I’ll spare you the all-caps.) I’m sure that when Democrats read this they immediately slapped their foreheads and said, “Why didn’t we think of that? We’ve been wondering what we should do about inflation. Why didn’t it occur to us to end it?”

So OK, how do Republicans plan to end inflation? That’s Chapter 1 of the elaboration.

We commit to unleashing American Energy, reining in wasteful spending, cutting excessive Regulations, securing our Borders, and restoring Peace through Strength. Together, we will restore Prosperity, ensure Economic Security, and build a brighter future for American Workers and their families. Our dedication to these Policies will make America stronger, more resilient, and more prosperous than ever before.

Most of this in code.

  • unleashing American Energy means (as the preamble says) “drill, baby, drill”. It’s not about unleashing American wind energy or solar energy. It means producing as much fossil fuel as we possibly can and ignoring what that means for climate change.
  • reining in wasteful spending is the same sleight-of-hand we’ve been seeing in Republican proposals since Reagan. It’s a fudge factor that makes their budget numbers work. In #14, they promise to “protect Social Security and Medicare with no cuts”. #12 will “strengthen and modernize our military, making it, without question, the strongest and most powerful in the world”. #2 envisions “the largest deportation operation in American history”, which sounds like it might be expensive to pull off. Ditto for #8, which will “build a great Iron Dome missile defense shield over our entire country” and #11 “rebuild out cities”. No specific examples of “wasteful spending” are given, and it’s hard to imagine cuts that could make up for all this increased spending. Spending rose in every budget of the first Trump administration (going from Obama’s last budget of just under $4 trillion to Trump’s last of $7.2 trillion), and would likely continue rising in a second. The platform also promises tax cuts (#6), so deficits should go up substantially, assuming Republicans haven’t ended arithmetic too.
  • cutting excessive regulations means two things: In general, abandoning efforts to protect Americans from whatever rapacious corporations may decide to do, and more specifically, eliminating rules aimed at fighting climate change by cutting fossil fuel use.
  • securing our borders appeals to the misperception (widespread among the MAGA base) that undocumented immigrants cost our government much more than they actually do. Trump’s plans to secure the border are an expense, not a savings.
  • restoring Peace through Strength means letting Russia take Ukraine, ending the “wasteful spending” of supporting Ukrainian sovereignty.

And then there’s stuff that would drastically increase prices, like tariffs.

Republicans will support baseline Tariffs on Foreign- made goods, pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, and respond to unfair Trading practices. As Tariffs on Foreign Producers go up, Taxes on American Workers, Families, and Businesses can come down.

Trump has long pushed the bizarre idea that foreigners pay our tariffs. In fact, importers pay tariffs, which they pass on to their customers as higher prices. Do you buy anything made in another country? It’s price will go up 10%. To the extent that the government relies on tariffs rather than income taxes, the tax burden shifts from rich people to ordinary consumers.

How will this plan end inflation? It won’t. Gas and cars might be a bit cheaper, at great cost to future generations. Corporate costs might go down, but Americans across-the-board would be less safe from pollution and dangerous products. (And would those lower corporate costs mean lower prices, or just larger profits?) Government spending and deficits would continue to increase, unless Republicans got clever with the “no cuts” promise on Social Security and Medicare. (They might decide that ending cost-of-living increases in Social Security isn’t a “cut”, or that freezing overall Medicare spending isn’t a “cut”, even though it would mean less care and higher costs for individuals. I know I wasn’t going to mention Project 2025, but it wants to raise the retirement age, which wouldn’t “cut benefits” for anybody who still received benefits. But the platform explicitly promises “no changes to the retirement age”, which you should totally believe because Trump is lying to the other guy, not you.)

Climate and the environment. The word “climate” does not appear in the platform, because an underlying principle of the document is that climate change is not a problem and nothing needs to be done about it. But refusing to combat climate change has a strong implied presence in the document.

The glorification of fossil fuels is everywhere.

Under President Trump, the U.S. became the Number One Producer of Oil and Natural Gas in the World — and we will soon be again by lifting restrictions on American Energy Production and terminating the Socialist Green New Deal.

Guess what? The US is still the world’s largest producer under Biden, and the Green New Deal never passed Congress. But carry on.

Republicans will increase Energy Production across the board, streamline permitting, and end market-distorting restrictions on Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal. The Republican Party will once again make America Energy Independent, and then Energy Dominant, lowering Energy prices even below the record lows achieved during President Trump’s first term.

Want to drill for oil in some environmentally sensitive area? No problem! And did I mention that the US is already energy independent, in that we’re a net exporter of oil and gas? And if you remember those low gas prices during the Trump administration, you might also remember that they happened during the Covid lockdown, when nobody was driving. And “market-distorting restrictions” means subsidizing sustainable fuels.

I didn’t mention one of the Republicans’ ideas for lowering housing prices:

open limited portions of Federal Lands to allow for new home construction

Look around your neighborhood and see if you can spot any federal lands you’d like to build on. None? But mining companies have their eyes on lots of federal lands.

Republicans will revive the U.S. Auto Industry by reversing harmful Regulations, canceling Biden’s Electric Vehicle and other Mandates, and preventing the importation of Chinese vehicles.

Those “harmful regulations” are things like CAFE standards to increase gas mileage. And of course Republicans don’t want you driving an EV, which Exxon doesn’t profit from. Cheap Chinese EVs should be a genuine debate, because while importing them would cost American jobs in the auto industry, it would also speed the transition away from fossil fuels. But it isn’t an issue in this campaign, because Biden also wants to keep them out.

Social Security and Medicare. We’ve already talked about how a Republican administration might get around its promises not to cut these programs. But something nobody talks about is how undocumented immigrants prop them up: Many immigrants work under fake SSNs, which means that they pay taxes but will never collect benefits. Legal immigrants tend to be much younger than the general population, so they pay taxes now but won’t collect benefits for many years. So Trump’s deportation plan will harm all our pension funds. But the platform makes it sound like money flows in the opposite direction.

Republicans will protect Medicare’s finances from being financially crushed by the Democrat plan to add tens of millions of new illegal immigrants to the rolls of Medicare.

I have no idea what plan they’re talking about, and I doubt they do either. Another bit of cluelessness is

corrupt politicians have robbed Social Security to fund their pet projects

I blame both parties for this bit of rhetoric, which goes back to Al Gore’s “lockbox” promise. The federal government has been running deficits, and the federal trust funds have been investing their money in government bonds, as many private pension plans do. Unless the US reneges on its debt (something Trump has hinted at from time to time), nobody is “robbing” Social Security.

Culture wars and education. The platform promises to end “political meddling” in our schools and “restore Parental Rights”, but we can see what this really means by looking at Ron DeSantis’ Florida. Florida education is full political meddling, including a law listing ideas that can’t be taught in Florida schools. And “Parental Rights” means rights for conservative Christian parents, which come at the expense of the rest of us.

So if you want your child to learn real American history rather than rah-rah propaganda, you don’t have that right. If you want a library stocked with books from a wide range of views, including books that help non-White or LGBTQ kids make sense of what they’re experiencing, tough luck. Moms For Liberty said no, and they have the final word.

The platform also calls for ending tenure for teachers and “allowing various publicly supported Educational models”, which means using public money to support conservative Christian schools.

Republicans will support overhauling standards on school discipline, advocate for immediate suspension of violent students, and support hardening schools to help keep violence away from our places of learning.

“Hardening schools” is a euphemism for making them more like prisons. Republicans refuse to do anything about our gun problem, so instead we’ll turn our schools into armed camps. (And of course no armed teacher or school guard will ever flip out and start killing students.)

Republicans will ensure children are taught fundamentals like Reading, History, Science, and Math, not Leftwing propaganda. We will defund schools that engage in inappropriate political indoctrination of our children using Federal Taxpayer Dollars.

“Leftwing propaganda” and “inappropriate political indoctrination” means recognizing that racism is still a problem in America, or that families take many different forms these days.

Republicans will champion the First Amendment Right to Pray and Read the Bible in school, and stand up to those who violate the Religious Freedoms of American students.

Conservative Christian teachers will be allowed to indoctrinate their students, but non-Christian teachers won’t have similar rights. Teachers who use the Bible to teach critical reasoning skills rather than Christian dogma will find themselves in deep trouble.

We are going to close the Department of Education in Washington, D.C. and send it back to the States, where it belongs, and let the States run our educational system as it should be run.

But of course they’re also going to cut federal spending on “Leftwing propaganda”, no matter what a liberal state might want its kids to learn. States rights are for red states, not blue states.

Our Great Teachers, who are so important to the future wellbeing of our Country, will be cherished and protected by the Republican Party

But we’re also getting rid of tenure.

All sorts of phrases in the platform advocate returning to the Dead White Guys tradition in education: “Western Civilization”, “Classic Liberal Arts Education”, and so on.

Immigration. In several places, the platform frames desperate families arriving at our borders as an “invasion”, which is to be met with force and fortification.

We will complete the Border Wall, shift massive portions of Federal Law Enforcement to Immigration Enforcement, and use advanced technology to monitor and secure the Border. We will use all resources needed to stop the Invasion— including moving thousands of Troops currently stationed overseas to our own Southern Border.

Nonviolent solutions — like funding more immigration courts and judges, so that people who arrive here with legitimate asylum claims under our laws and treaty obligations can have their cases handled promptly and won’t have to wait around here or elsewhere — are not mentioned. That was a big piece of the bipartisan immigration bill Trump had his allies in Congress torpedo a few months ago.

The platform also promotes the myth of “Migrant Crime”, as if crimes by migrants were somehow different or more virulent than crimes by American citizens. They aren’t.

And then there’s “the largest deportation program in American history” and “sending Illegal Aliens back home”. That’s millions of people working millions of jobs. Restaurant workers, crop pickers, teachers, nurses, programmers, and probably people you know whose paperwork you never thought about. Your mom or grandpa might have to go to a nursing home because home health aides will suddenly be in short supply. You or your spouse might have to quit working, because child care will be hard to find.

And how do you do an operation of this size without making its processes automatic and inflexible? Where do the millions of people go? To detention camps while we find countries to accept them? How do we keep those camps from turning into hellholes, staffed by people who get off on having power over helpless human beings?

But that’s one thing the platform doesn’t say.

Just Don’t Do It

I have violent fantasies and probably you do too.
But they need to stay in our heads.

The Trump shooting has led to Joe Biden and all the country’s other responsible leaders saying the things that responsible leaders always say: Violence has no place in our politics, and so on. That’s great; I completely agree.

But one thing needs to be said that I’m not seeing anywhere: I believe that just about everybody, at one time or another, fantasizes about doing violence to someone who symbolizes absolute evil to them. I know I do, and I try not to feel guilty about such fantasies. As long as they stay in our heads, they’re relatively harmless indulgences.

The problem comes when you start to think seriously about bringing those fantasies into reality. Where would I do it? What supplies would I need and where would I get them? Do I need an escape plan, or am I going out in a blaze of glory? Stuff like that.

If you ever find your thoughts drifting in those directions, I want to remind you of something: Violence seldom turns out the way you picture it, and History has a way of rolling right on even after you remove someone who seemed central to it. Killing Caesar didn’t stop the decline of the Roman Republic or delay the onset of Empire. Killing Lincoln didn’t improve the lot of the post-war Confederate states. I doubt killing Trump would stop MAGA either.

This individual or that one may (from some point of view at some point in History) personify the evil of that era. But the individual didn’t create all that evil. He or she simply channeled and focused it. If that individual dies, those forces will just find a new vessel, and History will keep rolling.

Trump didn’t conjure MAGA out of the void the way God created light in Genesis. He pulled together forces of resentment, entitlement, and bigotry that have been rattling around in American history for decades or even centuries. (Ask Rick Perlstein or Rachel Maddow.) They won’t go away just because something happens to Trump.

So if you ever find your violent fantasies starting to run away with you … I get it. I sympathize. Everybody wants to be the hero. Everybody longs to perform that one great feat that saves the World.

But don’t. Just don’t.

It won’t work. History doesn’t offer those kinds of short cuts. If the World is going to be saved, it will have to save itself through some much longer and more complicated process. Try to find a place for yourself in that process. Maybe a humble one, like most of the rest of us have.

The Biden Situation

Last week, I covered the Biden debate fiasco and discussed what the next steps should be. The gist of what I said was that as an aging person myself (67) and having watched a number of other people age, what I saw in Biden — stumbling over words, not remembering names, and getting unfocused when he’s sick or tired — did not necessarily bother me all that much. Those symptoms seemed (to me, at least) unrelated to dementia or more worrisome problems of aging.

But other people, I pointed out, are in a position to see much more, and we should pay attention to what they have to say. As of last week, they weren’t saying much, and those who were talking were standing by Biden.

This week, though, some of the reports I wasn’t seeing last week started to come in. Some elected Democrats — though none of the heavyweights (Jeffries, Schumer, Pelosi, Obama …) — called on Biden to withdraw from the race. And reports from insiders started to leak, saying that the symptoms we saw during the debate have happened often in the past. (Though they’re not reporting anything worse than we saw in the debate, and they’re not telling me what I really want to know: When Biden loses focus, how long does it take him to snap back? Does a five-minute break and a cup of coffee do the trick, or is he done for the day?)

Also, polls have come in measuring the post-debate slippage: Biden has gone from more-or-less even to about 3 points behind in the polling averages (though individual polls show better or worse results). Also, where early polls had shown other Democrats running far behind Trump, more recent ones show them in more-or-less the same position as Biden: behind, but close. Michelle Obama actually clobbers Trump 50%-39%, but she has shown no interest in running. (It’s common for candidates to look good when they show no interest, only to lose support when they eventually run.) Kamala Harris trails by only 1%, belying the claim that she can’t win. Other Democrats trail by 3-6%.

Friday, Biden did something critics were insisting he needed to do: Sit down for a one-on-one interview with an independent journalist. He talked to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos for 22 minutes, an interview that I found frustrating to watch because it told me so little. Basically, Biden was the guy we elected in 2020: He occasionally had to hunt for the words he wanted, and sometimes he started one sentence and finished another (something I’ve been known to do), but nothing seemed fundamentally wrong with his thinking processes.

But 22 minutes isn’t that impressive, and I was disappointed in Stephanopoulos. Yes, the point of the interview was to test Biden’s sharpness. But couldn’t that purpose have been better accomplished, and the public better served, by asking him difficult questions about inflation, immigration, climate change, and so on? Instead, Stephanopoulos spent 22 minutes asking different versions of the same question: What would have to happen for you to quit the race?

No one should expect any politician to answer that question forthrightly. Quitting a political campaign is like asking for a divorce: You don’t talk about it until you’re ready to do it. In every election cycle, primary candidates swear they’re “in it to win it” right up until the moment they tell their staffs to go home. If Biden were to admit he was thinking about quitting, that would freeze his campaign, stop donors in their tracks, and start a chain reaction that would inevitably lead to him leaving the race. If he’s not ready to do it, he shouldn’t talk about it. No politician would.

Weirdly, commentators seemed not to understand this basic fact of politics, so a common response was that Biden is “in denial” about his situation.

For what it’s worth: CNN offered Trump a similar interview, and he refused. Trump only does interviews on friendly venues like Fox News or Newsmax, and often those are edited before the public sees them. And although Trump complained constantly about how his Manhattan trial was keeping him off the campaign trail, he isn’t actually campaigning that hard now that he can. His schedule for this week shows only two events, one tomorrow and one Saturday. In short, far from showing the youthful vigor Biden is said to lack, Trump has a less rigorous campaign schedule than Biden does — and Biden has a day job.

On the question of whether Biden should be the candidate, I’m less certain than I was last week. I continue to think switching candidates is a messier process than many commentators — I’m looking at you, Ezra Klein — imagine. Switching to anybody but Harris would be suicidal if Harris wasn’t all-in on the plan. And why should she be? Josh Marshall raises an important point in that regard: Who are the convention delegates who would be making that decision, and what small-d democratic legitimacy do they have?

[T]his process [where Harris is skipped over] simply has no legitimacy. And what angers me about these columnists is just the lack of humility. What are they talking about? On what basis and with what legitimacy or authority are they coming up with this fantasy process? We’re way, way off the rails of democratic legitimacy here. In a case like this it behooves us, both politically and far more substantively, to search for sources of legitimacy where we can and make our choices accordingly. And the obvious and clear ones all point to Kamala Harris. The American people chose her as Biden’s replacement in 2020. And while she wasn’t technically nominated for VP during this year’s primary process, in effect she was since Democrats chose Biden again fully knowing she was part of the package. Her name is literally in the name of the campaign.

Finally, it’s hard to discuss what Biden and his party should do next without acknowledging the overwhelming media stampede trying to push him out of the race. I don’t know where this is coming from, but I can’t remember anything quite like it. Monday, the Supreme Court’s decision on presidential immunity — which (as I covered in the previous post) isn’t quite the End of the Republic by itself, but could be a significant step in that direction — barely got air time because speculation about Biden crowded it out. Tuesday, USA Today published a topsy-turvy article that framed the immunity decision as a distraction from Biden’s troubles.

So here’s where I am at the current moment, understanding that new information keeps coming in: I don’t yet see anything in Biden that would keep him from continuing to do the good job he’s been doing these last several years. Going forward, he may have to work less and rest more, but I suspect that even then he would be working far harder than Trump ever did when he was president.

Politically, the question is closer: Biden has something to prove now, and he may not be a skilled enough politician to prove it. At a minimum, he needs more exposure like the Stephanopoulos interview, and he needs to go without any public senior moments, even minor ones, for the rest of the campaign. Can he do that? I’m not sure.

I’m particularly unsure he can prove what he needs to prove in the face of intense opposition from the likes the the NYT, CNN, and other mainstream media outlets. Maybe Obama had the skills to turn something like this around, or maybe Bill Clinton in his prime. But Biden has never been in that class.

No one should minimize the risks in either direction.

I often hear the suggestion that if Biden would just do X, that would put the controversy to bed. So why doesn’t he? Isn’t he just admitting he can’t? (A few days before the Stephanopoulos interview, X was “sit down for a one-on-one interview”. During it, X was “undergo an independent medical evaluation that included neurological and cognitive tests and release the results to the American people.”) But when has such a strategy ever worked? Does anyone ever do X and get the response, “Thank you. We can move on now.”? I have never seen it. Doing X just leads to an explanation of why X wasn’t good enough, followed by a demand that you do Y.

Similarly, the Democratic Party is now hearing that we can move on to talk about the substantive issues of this campaign (democracy vs. authoritarianism, climate change, abortion, Gaza, Ukraine, competition with China, immigration, all the ways Trump will abuse the Supreme Court’s newly invented presidential immunity …) once we do X, namely, replace Biden as our candidate.

Is that true? I doubt it. So does Michelangelo Signorile:

Don’t fall for trap. If Democrats listen to the New York Times and try to replace Biden, NYT will have a new narrative: Democrats in chaos. And they will then have 347 stories a week about whoever is the candidate, all focused on how inexperienced and unprepared that person is.

David Roberts is even more blunt:

So, say Biden stepped aside in favor of Harris tomorrow. How long until the vapid gossips we call political reporters find something wrong with her, some alleged flaw they just have to write 192 stories about? How long until the hopped-up mediocrities we call pundits find some “counter-intuitive” reason that the new Dem ticket is flawed after all? How long until the irredentist left gets over the temporary thrill of its new Harris memes & remembers that she’s a cop & turns on her? How long before the ambient racism & misogyny in the US lead center-leftists to conclude that, sure, they’d support a black woman, just not *this* black woman? In other words: how long before everyone reverts to their comfortable, familiar identity & narratives? About 30 f’ing seconds, is my guess.

Is that take too pessimistic, too cynical? We may soon find out.

The Immunity Decision: End of the Republic or No Big Deal?

Should we “fear for our democracy”, or is that reaction
“wholly disproportionate to what the Court actually does”?


In their dissents in the Trump immunity case, Justice Sonya Sotomayor explicitly expresses “fear for our democracy” and Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson warns that “the seeds of absolute power for Presidents have been planted”. But in his majority opinion, Chief Justice John Roberts dismisses such concerns:

As for the dissents, they strike a tone of chilling doom that is wholly disproportionate to what the Court actually does today

So who is right? In granting Donald Trump nearly all the immunity he asked for, did the Court “reshape the institution of the Presidency” and “make a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution and system of Government, that no man is above the law”, as Sotomayor claims? Or did it simply make explicit principles that since the Founding have been implicit in the separation of powers and in Article II’s concise “The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America”?

I won’t leave you in suspense: Sotomayor and Jackson are right. Roberts and the conservative majority have embedded a time bomb in the Constitution. That bomb could sit peacefully for decades until it is disarmed by some future Court, or it could go off as soon as next January.

What is this case about? Trump v United States arises from the indictment being prosecuted against Donald Trump (now a private citizen) in regard to his attempt to hang onto power by fraud and force after being defeated in the 2020 presidential election. While it is often referred to as “the January 6 case”, the indictment presents the January 6 riot not as a one-day event, but in the context of Trump’s months-long attempt to delegitimize the election that he lost and monkeywrench the usual constitutional and procedural processes that lead to the peaceful transfer of power.

The first steps of that effort were lawful, as Trump and his allies filed many dozens of lawsuits to challenge the election results in various states. These suits were routinely swatted down by courts that demanded evidence commensurate with Trump’s outlandish claims of fraud and procedural malfeasance, as well as his calls for unprecedented responses to those claims. He had no such evidence to present, and no further evidence has emerged in the subsequent years.

From there, Trump pressured state and local election officials to refuse to certify the election results. Up to a point, this too might have been lawful, as any candidate for office might suggest that officials look into election procedures he found suspicious. But much of it seemed to cross a line, as when Trump pressured Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” the votes he needed to win Georgia, and suggested Raffensperger could be prosecuted if he didn’t.

Trump then tried to leverage the authority of the Justice Department, by having DoJ write letters to legislatures in states that Trump lost, falsely claiming that an investigation had found fraud in their elections and suggesting that they hold special sessions to replace the Biden electors the voters had chosen. Justice Department officials refused, and threatened to quit en masse if Trump appointed a puppet attorney general to send such letters.

The next step was to recruit fake electors who would present fraudulent papers to Congress claiming that their votes for Trump were the official Electoral College votes for their state, allowing either Vice President Pence or Congress as a whole to declare either that Trump had won or that the result of the election was unclear, initiating constitutional chaos that he hoped to turn in his favor.

As part of his pressure campaign on Vice President Pence and Congress, Trump assembled a mob on January 6 and sent them to the Capitol. They proceeded to battle police (injuring more than 100), invade the Capitol, and send members of Congress (and the vice president) running for their lives. While this was happening, Trump watched the riot on television, refusing for hours either to ask the rioters to go home or to call out the national guard to restore order.

The legal process. After many delays, this case was nearly ready to go to trial when Trump’s lawyers claimed the indictment was unlawful because the former president had “absolute immunity” from prosecution for any actions taken during his term in office. Special Prosecutor Jack Smith, recognizing the likelihood that the question would go to the Supreme Court eventually and hoping to get the trial done before the fall election, asked the Court to take the case on an expedited basis in December. They refused.

The case then went through the ordinary process, with every judge involved rejecting Trump’s immunity claim. For example, a unanimous three-judge panel from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals declared on February 6:

For the purpose of this criminal case, former President Trump has become citizen Trump, with all of the defenses of any other criminal defendant. But any executive immunity that may have protected him while he served as President no longer protects him against this prosecution.

Most court-watchers and legal scholars found the appellate court ruling compelling, and many expected the Supreme Court to let it stand without a further hearing. When the Court did take up the case two weeks later, even court-watchers skeptical of the conservative majority’s motives saw the move simply as an attempt to aid Trump by delaying his trial past the election. [1] The Court’s scheduling — hearing arguments in April on the last day for hearing arguments and announcing the results on the last day of the term in July — seemed to confirm that suspicion. Right up to the decision’s announcement on July 1, few anticipated that the Court might find in Trump’s favor.

But they did.

What did the Court decide? As far back as the oral arguments in April, it was clear that the Court was going far afield from the case the appellate court had considered. Both the appellate court and the district court had focused the case in front of them: Trump’s claim of immunity for the acts alleged in the grand jury’s indictment. But the conservative justices showed little interest in the details of what happened on January 6 or the events that led up to that riot. Instead, they discussed abstract theories about executive power and elaborate hypothetical situations bearing no resemblance to the case at hand. [2]

So instead of a decision on whether the case against Trump should move forward, the conservative justices (excluding Barrett on at least one key point we’ll get to) laid out the following theoretical framework.

  • There is absolute immunity “with respect to the President’s exercise of his core constitutional powers”.
  • Presidents also have “at least presumptive immunity” for all other official acts “unless the Government can show that applying a criminal prohibition to that act would pose no ‘dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch’.” [The internal quote is from Nixon v Fitzgerald, which will come up a lot]
  • There is no immunity for “unofficial acts”, but prosecuting even these acts might be difficult, given that “courts may not inquire into the President’s motives”, and official acts cannot even be presented “as evidence in a criminal prosecution of a President”. [3]

The Trump case will be sent back to the District Court so that Judge Chutkan can apply the Court’s principles to the indictment.

How does Roberts justify this ruling? Not very well, and not at all consistently with the conservative majority’s “originalist” or “textualist” philosophy. As Sotomayor points out:

It seems history matters to this Court only when it is convenient.

Criminal immunity for the president is mentioned nowhere in the Constitution, in spite of the fact that (as Sotomayor points out) at the time several state constitutions gave immunity to their governors. So it’s unlikely this significant provision just slipped the Founders’ minds. It also appears nowhere in American history, and some historical events make no sense if criminal immunity is assumed. (Why, for example, did President Ford offer Richard Nixon a pardon, and why did he accept it?) In justifying his vote not to impeach Trump for January 6, Mitch McConnell said:

President Trump is still liable for everything he did while he was in office as an ordinary citizen, unless the statute of limitations is run, still liable for everything he did while he’s in office. He didn’t get away with anything yet — yet. We have a criminal justice system in this country. We have civil litigation. And former presidents are not immune from being accountable by either one.

At the time, this point was not considered controversial. Trump’s own lawyer had told the Senate

If my colleagues on this side of the chamber actually think that President Trump committed a criminal offense, and let’s understand, a high crime is a felony, and a misdemeanor is a misdemeanor. The words haven’t changed that much over time. After he’s out of office, you go and arrest him.

Literally no one in America [4] believed in presidential criminal immunity until Trump raised the issue in his recent trials.

Roberts’ main argument is that if the the president is subject to future prosecution he might “be chilled from taking the ‘bold and unhesitating action’ required of an independent Executive”. He projects this opinion into the minds of the Founders by quoting Alexander Hamilton and George Washington lauding “vigor” and “energy in the executive” as an advantage the new Constitution offered over the old Articles of Confederation. However, he gives us no quotation in which this “energy” is connected to immunity from prosecution (because there is none).

Sotomayor writes:

In sum, the majority today endorses an expansive vision of Presidential immunity that was never recognized by the Founders, any sitting President, the Executive Branch, or even President Trump’s lawyers, until now. Settled understandings of the Constitution are of little use to the majority in this case, and so it ignores them.

Lacking any support in the text of the Constitution or American history, Roberts rests most of his argument on the precedent Nixon v Fitzgerald, the source of that “bold and unhesitating action” quote, in which the court ruled that presidents were immune from civil litigation based on their official acts. Roberts repeatedly quotes Fitzgerald, largely ignoring one substantial difference between civil suits and criminal indictments: Anyone can file a lawsuit, which (until a trial is held) is a “mere allegation” (as Fitzgerald puts it and Roberts quotes). But a criminal indictment comes from an impartial grand jury, and deserves considerably more respect. It easy to imagine an ex-president being peppered with thousands of frivolous lawsuits. But if multiple grand juries are finding probable cause that a president committed crimes, that seems like a more serious situation.

Nor may courts deem an action unofficial merely because it allegedly violates a generally applicable law. … Otherwise, Presidents would be subject to trial on “every allegation that an action was unlawful,” depriving immunity of its intended effect.

Again, the quote is from Fitzgerald, as if a grand jury indictment were simply an allegation.

The dissents’ positions in the end boil down to ignoring the Constitution’s separation of powers and the Court’s precedent and instead fear mongering on the basis of extreme hypotheticals about a future where the President “feels empowered to violate federal criminal law.” The dissents overlook the more likely prospect of an Executive Branch that cannibalizes itself, with each successive President free to prosecute his predecessors, yet unable to boldly and fearlessly carry out his duties for fear that he may be next.

But this problem never occurred before Trump, who both committed multiple crimes in office and now threatens to gin up sham prosecutions against President Biden, should he regain power. This is not a structural problem in American government; it’s the consequence of one man’s vices.

Sotomayor responds:

The majority seems to think that allowing former Presidents to escape accountability for breaking the law while disabling the current Executive from prosecuting such violations somehow respects the independence of the Executive. It does not. … [T]he majority believes that a President’s anxiety over prosecution overrides the public’s interest in accountability and negates the interests of the other branches in carrying out their constitutionally assigned functions. It is, in fact, the majority’s position that “boil[s] down to ignoring the Constitution’s separation of powers.”

Roberts three-part division. Roberts sketches out three zones: absolute immunity, presumptive immunity that can be overcome in certain situations, and no immunity. How much comfort should this system give us?

Not much, in my opinion. The need for a very small zone of protection appears in our history: Congress shouldn’t be able to make laws that restrict a president’s constitutional powers, and then try to prosecute him for violating those limits. This happened after the Civil War, when Congress made a law preventing President Andrew Johnson from firing cabinet officials, and then impeached him for breaking it. We can easily imagine Congress restricting the pardon power, say, by banning a president from pardoning members of his family or his administration. If he did so anyway, a subsequent administration might prosecute him. A court would be justified in tossing out such prosecutions before trial.

Sotomayor finds this kind of immunity irrelevant to the current case.

In this case, however, the question whether a former President enjoys a narrow immunity for the “exercise of his core constitutional powers,” has never been at issue, and for good reason: Trump was not criminally indicted for taking actions that the Constitution places in the unassailable core of Executive power. He was not charged, for example, with illegally wielding the Presidency’s pardon power or veto power or appointment power or even removal power. Instead, Trump was charged with a conspiracy to commit fraud to subvert the Presidential election

But Roberts’ zone of absolute immunity is much larger, and includes immunity for everything a president might do with his core powers. In the current case, this blows away the part of the indictment where Trump attempted to induce the Justice Department to send that false letter to the Georgia legislature.

The indictment’s allegations that the requested investigations were “sham[s]” or proposed for an improper purpose do not divest the President of exclusive authority over the investigative and prosecutorial functions of the Justice Department and its officials. And the President cannot be prosecuted for conduct within his exclusive constitutional authority. Trump is therefore absolutely immune from prosecution for the alleged conduct involving his discussions with Justice Department officials.

Testimony about such discussions cannot even be used to inform a jury’s evaluation of a president’s unofficial actions.

If official conduct for which the President is immune may be scrutinized to help secure his conviction, even on charges that purport to be based only on his unofficial conduct, the “intended effect” of immunity would be defeated.

Again, the quote is from Fitzgerald, who was talking about civil lawsuits, not criminal charges. Again, this removal of any “scrutiny” is where Barrett diverged from Roberts. [3]

In the zone of presumptive immunity, the presumption is almost impossible to overcome. The prosecution must “pose no ‘dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch’.” Sotomayor notes that this is a much higher bar than any precedent can justify.

No dangers, none at all. It is hard to imagine a criminal prosecution for a President’s official acts that would pose no dangers of intrusion on Presidential authority in the majority’s eyes. Nor should that be the standard. Surely some intrusions on the Executive may be “justified by an overriding need to promote objectives within the constitutional authority of Congress.” [Nixon v. Administrator of General Services]. Other intrusions may be justified by the “primary constitutional duty of the Judicial Branch to do justice in criminal prosecutions.” [United States v. Nixon] According to the majority, however, any incursion on Executive power is too much. When presumptive immunity is this conclusive, the majority’s indecision as to “whether [official-acts] immunity must be absolute” or whether, instead, “presumptive immunity is sufficient,” hardly matters.

And then we come to the “no immunity for unofficial acts zone”. If a president were to sexually assault a woman, maybe “grab her by the pussy”, say, that would presumably be an unofficial act for which he could be prosecuted.

But even here, we run into a president’s prerogative to use his official powers to obstruct justice. Recognizing his legal exposure, a president might order federal officers to destroy evidence, or even kill the woman before she could report the crime. He might then pardon the officers who carried out this order. These would be official acts, and so completely immune from prosecution.

Chilling doom. Justice Jackson’s dissent lays out how the fundamental structure of our government has changed: The executive and judicial branches gain power and Congress loses power. The very vagueness of the current decision empowers the Supreme Court to decide what presidential behavior is or isn’t permitted.

[T]he majority does not—and likely cannot—supply any useful or administrable definition of the scope of that “core.” For what it’s worth, the Constitution’s text is no help either; Article II does not contain a Core Powers Clause. So the actual metes and bounds of the “core” Presidential powers are really anyone’s guess. … [T]he Court today transfers from the political branches to itself the power to decide when the President can be held accountable. What is left in its wake is a greatly weakened Congress, which must stand idly by as the President disregards its criminal prohibitions and uses the powers of his office to push the envelope, while choosing to follow (or not) existing laws, as he sees fit. We also now have a greatly empowered Court, which can opt to allow Congress’s policy judgments criminalizing conduct to stand (or not) with respect to a former President, as a matter of its own prerogative.

She also hints at the likely partisan applications of this power.

Who will be responsible for drawing the crucial “ ‘line between [the President’s] personal and official affairs’ ”? To ask the question is to know the answer. A majority of this Court, applying an indeterminate test, will pick and choose which laws apply to which Presidents

And finally, Sotomayor takes the long view:

Looking beyond the fate of this particular prosecution, the long-term consequences of today’s decision are stark. The Court effectively creates a law-free zone around the President, upsetting the status quo that has existed since the Founding. This new official-acts immunity now “lies about like a loaded weapon” for any President that wishes to place his own interests, his own political survival, or his own financial gain, above the interests of the Nation. The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune. Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today.

With other safeguards stripped away, the only protection the people have is their own vote, for a long as that is allowed and recognized. We must elect only presidents of high character who will not use the “loaded weapon” this Court has provided. Because once presidents are in power, little can be done to constrain them.


[1] Here’s Slate’s Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern on February 6:

The question is not whether a majority will ultimately agree with Trump (it won’t) but whether a majority will abet Trump’s efforts to run out the clock (it might).

[2] The faux humility of Roberts’ opinion sometimes reads like a bad joke.

the current stage of the proceedings in this case does not require us to decide whether this immunity is presumptive or absolute. Because we need not decide that question today, we do not decide it.

In reality, the only thing the Court needed to decide is what should happen to the current indictment. Roberts’ whole opinion is a gratuitous exercise in judicial overreach. But no, after much theorizing about situations that may or may not ever occur, the specifics of this case are what get punted back to the lower courts for another yo-yo ride of decisions and appeals that can waste months or maybe years.

[3] This is where Justice Barrett leaves the conservative bloc, giving this example:

Consider a bribery prosecution—a charge not at issue here but one that provides a useful example. The federal bribery statute forbids any public official to seek or accept a thing of value “for or because of any official act.” The Constitution, of course, does not authorize a President to seek or accept bribes, so the Government may prosecute him if he does so. Yet excluding from trial any mention of the official act connected to the bribe would hamstring the prosecution. To make sense of charges alleging a quid pro quo, the jury must be allowed to hear about both the quid and the quo, even if the quo, standing alone, could not be a basis for the President’s criminal liability.

In other words, in this hypothetical bribery case, a jury could only hear about the bribe, and couldn’t be told what the president did to earn the bribe. Did he commute the last month of a dying man’s prison sentence, or did he give terrorists a nuclear weapon? Sorry, jurors, but we can’t tell you.

Barrett’s dissent has even more significance when you consider that both Thomas and Alito should have recused themselves from this case: Thomas because his wife could be a material witness, and Alito because the flags flying over his two houses raise legitimate concerns about his impartiality.

Do the math: Barrett should have been the swing vote in a 4-3 decision, and her dissent should have been the majority opinion.

[4] No one, perhaps, beyond Richard Nixon, who told David Frost “when the president does it … that means that it is not illegal.” Prior to the current case, this quote had widely been considered horrifying. Now, in most cases, it is the law.

Down to the Wire

Having admitted (in the previous article) to being wrong about the debate, I might as well confess something else: I had expected the Supreme Court to release their Trump immunity decision Friday, the second-to-last day of this term.

Obviously, the Court’s Republican majority wants to delay as long as possible, in order to make sure that their party’s presidential candidate doesn’t stand trial again before the election. (Such political considerations used to be beneath the Supreme Court, but little is beneath the Roberts court.) Jack Smith asked them to take the case back in December, and his prosecution of Trump’s post-2020-election conspiracy has been frozen ever since. (The trial should be over by now.) The Court actually took it in February, they heard oral arguments in April, and subsequently they have been sitting on their hands for more than two months. We can all see what they’re (not) doing.

But the Court pretends to be oblivious to politics, so delaying every possible second would make the game a little too obvious, or so I thought. Announcing their decision on the last day, I anticipated, would be too big a fuck-you to the American people.

Well, guess what, American people? I gave them too much credit. Today is when they will announce their last rulings of the term, and the immunity decision still hasn’t come out as of 10:30 EDT.

What they did announce this week was serious enough. The Court always procrastinates to a certain extent, so every year there’s a flurry of decisions in the last few days. But this year is extreme, and I (like several other observers) wonder whether that’s intentional: When you release hundreds and hundreds of pages of legal reasoning in a few days, who has time to process it all and inform the voters about it before the news cycle moves on to something else?

Not me, apparently. This week I haven’t done the kind of detailed analysis I’ve done the last two weeks. So while I’ve dipped into the text of the decisions, I’ve also had to rely on other people’s summaries. Here’s what the Court did this week.

They legalized bribery. Not in so many words, of course, but that’s the upshot. As Amy Howe delicately put it on SCOTUSblog, they “limited the scope of anti-bribery laws”.

The gist of Brett Kavanaugh’s opinion (supported by the entire conservative faction: Gorsuch, Barrett, Thomas, Alito, and Roberts) is that bribery is when a public official is paid off before making a decision. If he’s paid off afterwards, it’s a gratuity, which is fine. So going forward, paying officials to do you a favor will only be a crime if you do it stupidly. (“No, no, I’m tipping you for last week’s decision. Tomorrow’s decision is completely up to you. Do whatever you think is best.”)

There’s been a lot of conservative rhetoric lately about Trump’s prosecution making the US a “third-world country”. But (until now) one important feature has separated the US from the bad-example kind of small countries: Public officials don’t ordinarily expect gratuities for doing their jobs. For example, I’ve never tipped the people who process my driver’s license renewals at the DMV. In some countries, I’d be expected to. Maybe that’s the direction Kavanaugh pictures us going.

Typically, in order to illustrate just how bad a decision is, you have to make up some hypothetical example that takes the decision’s logic to an extreme, like “What if a president had Seal Team 6 assassinate his rivals?” Here, though, you just have to recount the facts of the case at hand (which Kavanaugh doesn’t do, but Justice Jackson’s dissent does): While he was mayor of Portage, Indiana, James Snyder oversaw the purchase of new garbage trucks at a cost of $1.1 million.

Snyder put one of his friends, Randy Reeder, in charge of the bidding process, despite Reeder’s lack of experience in administering public bids. Evidence presented at Snyder’s trial showed that Reeder tailored bid specifications for two different city contracts to favor Great Lakes Peterbilt, a truck dealership owned by brothers Robert Buha and Stephen Buha. Evidence also showed that during the bidding process, Snyder was in contact with the Buha brothers, but no other bidders. … Reeder testified that he crafted some specifications, including delivery within 150 days, knowing they would favor Great Lakes Peterbilt. The board of works voted to award Great Lakes Peterbilt the contract. Evidence at trial showed that the city could have saved about $60,000 had it not prioritized expedited delivery. …

Shortly after the second contract was awarded, Snyder paid the Buha brothers a visit at their dealership. “I need money,” he said. He asked for $15,000; the dealership gave him $13,000. When federal investigators heard about the payment and came calling, Snyder told them the check was for information technology and health insurance consulting services that he had provided to the dealership. He gave different explanations for the money to Reeder and a different city employee.

Employees at Great Lakes Peterbilt testified that Snyder never performed any consulting work for the dealership. And during the federal investigation, no written agreements, work product, evidence of meetings, invoices, or other documentation was ever produced relating to any consulting work performed by Snyder. All of this confirmed testimony from the dealership’s controller, who had cut the check to Snyder: Snyder had instead been paid for an “inside track.”

Kavanaugh doesn’t dispute those facts, he just chooses not to mention them, while ruling that this kind of thing is OK now. Any other interpretation of the law, he says, would criminalize harmless gratuities, such as “gift cards, lunches, plaques, books, framed photos, or the like”. But Jackson points to the word “corruptly” in the law. In order to convict an official, a jury has to believe that the gratuity was large enough that its anticipation corrupted the official’s judgment. A plaque probably wouldn’t do that, but $13,000 goes a long way in Portage.

Kavanaugh also reasons that he is only monkey-wrenching the federal anti-corruption law, so Snyder might still be prosecuted under local law. This entirely misses the point of federal anti-corruption laws. Local corruption needs to be subject to federal oversight, because local processes may have been corrupted. That’s why Eliot Ness’ Untouchables could take down Al Capone when the Chicago police had failed.

I think the cartoonist is on to something: Presumably, it would now be OK if James Snyder wrote Brett Kavanaugh a check in appreciation of his fine judicial wisdom and his grasp of political reality in towns like Portage. (Did I mention that corrupt Clarence Thomas signed on to Kavanaugh’s opinion?) The best summary of the situation comes from Elie Mystal:

According to Brett Kavanaugh and the conservatives, it’s only bribery if it comes from the Bribérie region of France. Everything else is just sparkling corruption.

They allowed local governments to criminalize homelessness. Again, that’s not said in so many words, at least not until you get to Justice Sotomayor’s dissent. The case centers on a law in Grants Pass, Oregon that “prohibits activities such as camping on public property or parking overnight in the city’s parks”. Here’s why Sotomayor thinks that’s a problem:

Sleep is a biological necessity, not a crime. For some people, sleeping outside is their only option. The City of Grants Pass jails and fines those people for sleeping anywhere in public at any time, including in their cars, if they use as little as a blanket to keep warm or a rolled-up shirt as a pillow. For people with no access to shelter, that punishes them for being homeless. That is unconscionable and unconstitutional. Punishing people for their status is “cruel and unusual” under the Eighth Amendment.

But Justice Gorsuch says the law doesn’t punish homelessness, because the law applies to everybody, not just the homeless.

Grants Pass’s public-camping ordinances do not criminalize status. The public-camping laws prohibit actions undertaken by any person, regardless of status. It makes no difference whether the charged defendant is currently a person experiencing homelessness, a backpacker on vacation, or a student who abandons his dorm room to camp out in protest on the lawn of a municipal building.

So if Elon Musk unrolled his Patagonia sleeping bag in a Grants Pass park, he’d be arrested too. What better illustration could there be of what Anatole France wrote in 1894?

In its majestic equality, the law forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets, and steal loaves of bread.

In his concurrence, Clarence Thomas wants to go further than Gorsuch and overturn the precedent this case is based on. In other words, you should be able to criminalize someone’s status.

Gorsuch and Sotomayor paint very different pictures of what Grants Pass is trying to accomplish. Gorsuch mostly ignores Grants Pass itself, but talks about other cities with similar laws. (Notice the pattern: The conservative justices want to discuss anything other than the specific facts of the cases at hand.) Cities like San Francisco, Gorsuch claims, are making a good-faith attempt to help the homeless by getting them into shelters, using anti-camping laws as the stick in a carrot-and-stick approach. But Sotomayor sees Grants Pass hoping the homeless will leave and become some other town’s problem:

For someone with no available shelter, the only way to comply with the Ordinances is to leave Grants Pass altogether. … The Grants Pass City Council held a public meeting in 2013 to “identify solutions to current vagrancy problems.” The council discussed the City’s previous efforts to banish homeless people by “buying the person a bus ticket to a specific destination,” or transporting them to a different jurisdiction and “leaving them there.”

That was unsuccessful, so the council discussed other ideas, including a “ ‘do not serve’ ” list or “a ‘most unwanted list’ made by taking pictures of the offenders . . . and then disseminating it to all the service agencies.” The council even contemplated denying basic services such as “food, clothing, bedding, hygiene, and those types of things.” … The council president summed up the goal succinctly: “[T]he point is to make it uncomfortable enough for [homeless people] in our city so they will want to move on down the road.”

They grabbed power away from federal agencies and claimed it for themselves. The Chevron doctrine is a legal principle that you will probably never run into in your personal life, but it has a bankshot effect on everything the government does. What’s at stake here is Congress’ ability to write open-ended laws whose details can be nailed down by the relevant federal agencies. Here’s an example I gave in January:

A typical example is the Clean Air Act. The CAA was first passed in 1963 and then overhauled in 1970. It established air quality standards (NAAQS) for a few well-known pollutants like carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and lead, but then it defined a general category of “hazardous air pollutants” (HAPs) made up of other gases and particulates that “threaten human health and welfare”. It tasked the EPA with making and maintaining a list of HAPs and creating emission regulations for controlling them.

Hold that in your mind for a minute: In passing the CAA, Congress banned or controlled substances that the members of Congress had never even heard of. That’s how the regulatory system works.

If the CAA didn’t work that way, Congress would have to pass a new law every time some company created a new pollutant. Corporations move faster than Congress does, so our lives would be constantly in danger. (Plus, corporations can now give “gratuities” to congressmen who procrastinate on new laws. See above.)

In 1984, the Supreme Court decided the Chevron case, establishing the principal that if a law Congress wrote is vague about something, and if an agency’s interpretation of that vagueness is reasonable, then courts should defer to the agency’s interpretation. This deference makes sense for two reasons:

  • Courts can’t match the expertise assembled in federal agencies like the EPA or the FDA.
  • Federal agencies are overseen by presidents, who can be voted out of office. Courts are overseen by judges appointed for life.

The Chevron precedent has stood for forty years. Friday the Court tossed it out, without identifying any significant problem they were solving.

I didn’t manage to read the whole opinion, so I refer you to Joyce Vance.

Want to know if you can use the abortion drug mifepristone? Despite studies confirming the drug is safer than Viagra and Tylenol, that decision is up to Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk in Amarillo, Texas. If he decides the FDA was wrong to approve it, well then, he can deny women access to medication abortion. What happens if a company that builds airplanes objects to an agency decision that requires them to use, say, six bolts to attach an engine to a plane? They can go to court and make their case to a federal judge. And then, that judge—a lawyer, not an engineer—gets to decide how it will work. The arbitrary action the court expresses concern agencies might take is replaced by arbitrary action from far less qualified federal judges—possibly shopped for in the infamous one-judge-divisions like the one that gave us the mifepristone case. Do you feel less safe suddenly?

Set up a future showdown on abortion — after the election. So Idaho law only allows abortions that save a woman’s life, while a federal law (EMTALA — the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act) mandates that hospitals receiving federal money (i.e. Medicare) stabilize any patient who shows up in their emergency rooms, including pregnant women who will suffer serious health consequences without an abortion.

But there’s a gray area, where a woman faces serious consequences but isn’t about to die. For women who fall into that gap, state law forbids what federal law mandates. A district court issued an injunction allowing the abortions, on the principle that federal law preempts state law. In January, the Supreme Court stayed that injunction, leaving the Idaho ban in place. Justice Kagan lays out the consequences of that move:

With that stay in effect, Idaho could enforce its abortion ban even when terminating a pregnancy was necessary to prevent grave harm to the woman. The on-the-ground impact was immediate. To ensure appropriate medical care, the State’s largest provider of emergency services had to airlift pregnant women out of Idaho roughly every other week, compared to once in the prior year (when the injunction was in effect). … Those transfers measure the difference between the life-threatening conditions Idaho will allow hospitals to treat and the health-threatening conditions it will not, despite EMTALA’s command.

So this week the Court’s three liberals (Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson) got together with three conservatives (Roberts, Barrett, and Kavanaugh) to lift the stay and rule that the Court should not have gotten involved in this case yet.

That’s good as far as it goes; for the next few months, Idaho hospitals can stop airlifting women to Oregon or wherever. But the case is likely to come back next term. And even if it doesn’t, other states’ abortion laws also conflict with EMTALA.

So both Jackson and Alito want to know why the case can’t be decided now: The Court has heard all the arguments and knows everything it’s going to know when the case comes back. (Both think the proper decision is obvious, but they disagree about what it is.)

But it looks like Roberts, Barrett, and Kavanaugh have made a political move: Denying health care to women with serious pregnancy-related health problems is really unpopular, so pushing such a decision to the other side of the election helps Trump and other Republicans. “It is so ordered.”

Let some January 6 rioters off the hook. This case, Fischer, looks more complicated than the others, because even though the margin (6-3) is familiar, two justices have switched sides: Barrett joined the liberals and Jackson joined the conservatives.

This fell off my stack, so here’s Amy Howe’s summary:

The Supreme Court on Friday threw out the charges against a former Pennsylvania police officer who entered the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks. By a vote of 6-3, the justices ruled that the law that Joseph Fischer was charged with violating, which bars obstruction of an official proceeding, applies only to evidence tampering, such as destruction of records or documents, in official proceedings.

Friday’s ruling could affect charges against more than 300 other Jan. 6 defendants. The same law is also at the center of two of the four charges brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith against former President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.

In other words, obstructing an official proceeding physically, by taking over the building, isn’t covered by this law.

I still don’t grasp the impact of this ruling. Several lawyers writing for MSNBC claim only a small number of January 6 defendants will be affected, and even the ones who are won’t go free, since they were convicted of other offenses as well. Many articles claim this interpretation will help Trump in his January 6 case, but the MSNBC article claims the opposite. It will take a while for me to sort this out.

They Both Lost. What Now?

Biden and Trump each needed to reassure the small flock of undecided voters that the country would be safe in his hands for the next four years. They failed in different ways, but they both failed.


The headlines Friday morning summed things up pretty well: Biden stumbled, while Trump lied. If you were worried that Joe Biden is too old to do the job, he did nothing to give you confidence in his vigor. But if you were worried that Donald Trump can’t be trusted to respond to the real problems America faces, rather than issues spawned by his dark imagination, he also did nothing to ease your mind.

The news coverage has tended to make more of Biden’s failings, stoking talk of replacing him on the Democratic ticket (which we’ll get to down the page), but it’s not clear that Trump’s were any less significant. It’s too soon to see much post-debate polling, but while most observers said Trump won the debate, the first post-debate head-to-head Morning Consult poll showed Biden gaining a point, leading Trump 45%-44% after being tied pre-debate. I wouldn’t count on that result holding up as more data comes in, but it does indicate that few minds were changed.

Overall, Biden was low energy and not sharp. His voice was raspy and he frequently had to clear his throat. (His people afterwards said he had a cold.) His lifelong trouble finding words was worse than usual, leading to occasional incoherent statements like this:

For example, we have a thousand trillionaires in America – I mean, billionaires in America. And what’s happening? They’re in a situation where they, in fact, pay 8.2 percent in taxes. If they just paid 24 percent or 25 percent, either one of those numbers, they’d raised $500 million – billion dollars, I should say, in a 10-year period.

We’d be able to right – wipe out his debt. We’d be able to help make sure that – all those things we need to do, childcare, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our healthcare system, making sure that we’re able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with the COVID – excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with.

Look, if – we finally beat Medicare. [time’s up]

Trump, meanwhile, seemed incapable of simply telling the truth. Here’s CNN’s post-debate fact checker:

Trump made more than 30 false claims at the Thursday debate. They included numerous claims that CNN and others have already debunked during the current presidential campaign or prior.

Trump’s repeat falsehoods included his assertions that some Democratic-led states allow babies to be executed after birth, that every legal scholar and everybody in general wanted Roe v. Wade overturned, that there were no terror attacks during his presidency, that Iran didn’t fund terror groups during his presidency, that the US has provided more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, that Biden for years referred to Black people as “super predators,” that Biden is planning to quadruple people’s taxes, that then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi turned down 10,000 National Guard troops for the US Capitol on January 6, 2021that Americans don’t pay the cost of his tariffs on China and other countries, that Europe accepts no American cars, that he is the president who got the Veterans Choice program through Congress, and that fraud marred the results of the 2020 election.

Trump also added some new false claims, such as his assertions that the US currently has its biggest budget deficit and its biggest trade deficit with China. Both records actually occurred under Trump.

Sadly, that kind of fact-checking was totally absent during the debate itself, as the moderators showed no interest in whether candidates answered their questions truthfully, or even answered them at all.

Democratic panic. Republicans seemed to worry not at all about Trump’s lies, just as they have not worried about his criminality. They long ago decided to nod their heads to whatever he says or does rather than worry about whether he’s talking about anything real. Some of them actually believe claims like the nonsense listed above. Those votes are not up for grabs, but I think it’s a mistake for Democrats to worry about them. They’re not a majority and Trump can’t win with the MAGA cultists alone.

Democrats, meanwhile, were shocked and saddened by Biden’s performance. Former Democratic Senator (and frequent MSNBC contributor) Claire McCaskill’s response was typical:

I have been a surrogate for some presidential candidates in my time, and I know what the job is after a debate for a surrogate. And I’ve never wanted to be a surrogate more than I do right now. Because when you’re a surrogate, you have to focus on the positives. But, as I have said very clearly and very plainly — and my job now is to be really honest — Joe Biden had one thing he had to do last night, and he didn’t do it.

The president had to reassure America that he was up to the job at his age. And he failed. … Based on what I’m hearing from a lot of people, some in high elected offices in this country, there is a lot more than hand-wringing going on. I do think people feel like we are confronting a crisis.

This debate felt like a gut punch to most people in this country, especially to those who are paying close attention and know how dangerous Trump is. And I think it’ll take a couple of days for people to recover from that punch.

From months now I’ve been chronicling the New York Times anti-Biden slant. So naturally they picked this moment to pile on. Their editorial board called on Biden to “leave the race“, and were echoed by NYT columnists Thomas Friedman, Frank Bruni, Nicholas Kristof, Maureen Dowd, and Lydia Polgreen. Jamelle Bouie, Michelle Goldberg, Bret Stephens, and Patrick Healey had a round-table discussion, with only Bouie expressing any doubt about the advisability of replacing Biden on the ticket. Ezra Klein, Michelle Cottle, and Ross Douthat had an even more one-sided conversation on Klein’s podcast. The NYT had to go to a guest essayist, Lincoln Project’s Stuart Stevens, to make the don’t-panic case.

The Times, of course, was not the only source of Biden-needs-to-quit thinking, which at times seemed to hit panic levels. I got up Friday morning feeling like something needed to happen right now. But then the voice of experience spoke up: For most of my life, decisions that I’ve made out of that sense of panic haven’t turned out very well.

We need to think about this.

Excuses for Biden. Hardly anybody is denying that the debate went badly for Biden. But the people who think it wasn’t that bad make a number of points.

  • The appearance was worse than the substance. Despite occasional moments like the one I quoted above, where words didn’t come together for Biden and he ran out of time, reading the transcript leaves me with a very different impression than watching the video. In the video, Biden’s voice is soft and raspy, he has to keep stopping to clear his throat, and he fails to deliver his lines with the proper force. In the transcript, he often does the things it seemed like he wasn’t doing: calling out Trump’s lies and countering with the appropriate examples. There was a problem, but it wasn’t with his mind.
  • He had a bad night. It happens. (In particular, it happened to Obama in his first debate with Romney in 2012.) But Biden did much better the next day at a rally in North Carolina, where (despite still needing to clear his throat) he forcefully delivered the sound bite I think his campaign needs to center on: “I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious. I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done.”
  • He had a cold. This sounds like a lame excuse, but it does match what we saw and heard: raspy voice, low energy, etc.
  • There’s time to fix this. Obama came back from his debate failure, which happened after the convention in early October.

But that last point raises an important question: Is Biden’s problem fixable? Did he indeed just have a bad night, or did the debate reveal who he really is now?

How I’m thinking about this. Three weeks ago, I wrote a piece called “To Stop Fascism, Unite Around the Old Guy” in which I argued against the view that Biden should withdraw from the race. Much of what I said then is still true: Biden has a good record to run on, there’s no obvious savior waiting in the wings to replace him, and an open convention would risk splintering the party. [1]

But the first point I made is now open to question: “Biden is fine.” Is he? I was basing my analysis on the idea that the Biden-is-losing-it theory was a right-wing construction equivalent to Hillary’s emails. I had been impressed by the State of the Union address, and believed that he would continue to rise to the occasion whenever he needed to. I urged people to watch the upcoming debate: “If you’re expecting Biden to be a doddering old man, I think you’ll be surprised.”

That prediction doesn’t look so good now. The debate was an occasion, and Biden didn’t rise to it. Going forward, is that the exception or the rule? If we can count on Biden having a good second debate, a good convention speech, and a bunch of rallies like Friday’s, then the first debate will be a distant memory by the time people vote in November. In short, we’re fine if this is the real Biden, and not the man we saw Thursday night.

But is that true?

And this is a point where I have to admit that I’m not in a position to know. Other people are. Jill is, obviously. The White House staff is, and probably most of the cabinet. So are major elected Democrats like Kamala Harris, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, and several others.

What I’m noticing is that, after reacting with uncertainty Friday morning, those people are circling the wagons around Biden. The Biden-should-quit voices are mainly coming from outside his circle, people who probably don’t know any more than I do.

You might say, “Of course the party leaders and his staff have to say that.” But (other than Harris, who would hurt her own prospects by appearing disloyal) they don’t, really. Party leaders could be non-committal, saying things like “I trust President Biden. I think he’ll make the right decision now the way he always does, and I’m going to support him either way.” [2] They could be converging on the White House to do an intervention, but that doesn’t seem to be happening.

Similarly, staffers can’t express their doubts in live interviews, but they could leak. We could be seeing Washington Post stories about “informed sources in the White House” getting increasingly worried about Biden. But we’re not.

You might suppose that the insiders have an affection for Biden and don’t want to hurt his feelings. And I might believe that about Jill (though I suspect even she would rather see him avoid humiliation, if that’s what’s coming). But picture Nancy Pelosi for a moment. Do you think she’d sacrifice an election because she didn’t want to hurt somebody’s feelings? That’s not the woman I’ve been watching all these years.

In short, I think I have to trust the insiders here. That’s not a comfortable position to be in. But it’s the one that makes sense to me.


[1] Replacing Biden with Harris could happen fairly cleanly: Biden endorses her and his convention delegates follow his lead. Done right, Biden’s exit could generate a wave of positive emotion that he could transfer to Harris, who would be stepping up to answer the call of History.

But Harris also has a low approval rating and didn’t run a great primary campaign in 2020, so many Democrats don’t feel confident in her beating Trump. Those people call for Biden to endorse no one and let an open convention choose among many candidates.

Jamelle Bouie spelled out the problem with that plan:

There is a real risk that the process of choosing a new nominee could tear open the visible seams in the Democratic Party. I have noticed that only a handful of calls for Biden to leave are followed by “and Vice President Harris should take his place.” More often, there is a call for a contested convention. But why, exactly, should Harris step aside? Why should Harris not be considered the presumptive nominee on account of her service as vice president and her presence on the 2020 ticket? And should Harris be muscled out, how does this affect a new nominee’s relationship with key parts of the Democratic base, specifically those Black voters for whom Harris’s presence on the ticket was an affirmation of Biden’s political commitment to their communities?

Elie Mystal put it more bluntly:

Listening to white folks blithely talk about pushing Biden off a cliff, skipping over Harris, and trotting out some white person like ain’t nobody gonna notice that is some *hilarious* shit. Some of y’all need to phone a friend. A black one.

The nominee is going to be Biden. And if he doesn’t want to run anymore (and I don’t think he thinks a bad 90 minutes is career altering, even if others do) it’s going to be Harris. And that is the sum total of viable options. Send your Aaron Sorkin script back for editing.

And race is only one issue. If multiple candidates ran, they would face pressure to differentiate themselves from each other. So, for example, we might have the pro-Israel candidate and the anti-Israel candidate. Picking either one would alienate a slice of the party the nominee would need in November.

[2] Friday morning, a few were making those non-committal statements. But by Saturday they had gotten behind Biden. Hakeem Jeffries, for example, made a classic non-commitment statement on Friday:

I’m looking forward to hearing from President Biden. And until he articulates a way forward in terms of his vision for America at this moment, I’m going to reserve comment about anything relative to where we are at this moment, other than to say I stand behind the ticket.

Yesterday, though, he described the debate as “a setback”, but

A setback is nothing more than a setup for a comeback. And the reality is, Joe Biden has confronted and had to come back from tragedy, trials, from tribulations throughout his entire life.

The Limits of Originalism

The Rahimi case isn’t getting a lot of coverage, because (as an 8-1 victory for common sense), it doesn’t make good clickbait. But the conservative judges are having an important discussion about the future of originalism.


Imagine you’re at a dinner party. On your way back from the bathroom, you happen to overhear a snatch of conversation from the kitchen: Your hosts have been discussing whether to poison your meal, and decide not to.

How should you feel about that? Relieved? Poisoning is a bad thing, and it’s not going to happen to you tonight. Angry? Why? Murder is wrong, and your hosts have decided not to do it. They’ve made the moral choice. Good for them.

Or maybe you focus on this question: Why were they having that conversation to begin with?

The Rahimi case. Now you can imagine how I feel about the outcome of United States v Rahimi, which the Supreme Court announced Friday. They decided that Congress does have the right to pass laws that take guns away from domestic abusers who are under restraining orders. Or, looking at it from the other side of the gun, men who have been judged by a court to pose a credible threat to their intimate partners do not have an absolute right to bear arms.

Good job, justices. With only one dissent (corrupt Clarence Thomas) they made the right call. Good for them. But why were they having that conversation to begin with? Why did anyone think that in one of the most obvious potential-murder situations imaginable [1], our legal system is banned from offering a woman even the simplest kind of protection?

In particular, why did anyone think it might be unconstitutional to disarm Zackey Rahimi, who perfectly exemplifies why domestic abuse laws exist? Rahimi didn’t just threaten the estranged mother of his child with a gun and then violate the restraining order she got for her own (and her child’s) protection, he also was involved in several other shooting incidents, some related to his personal anger-control issues and others stemming from his professional role as a drug dealer.

That guy. Even worse, Rahimi was making what is known as a facial challenge to the law disarming domestic abusers. In ordinary English, the law is unconstitutional on its face; there are no conceivable situations in which the law could be applied without violating the Second Amendment.

Why would anybody take that claim seriously enough that the Supreme Court should have to decide it?

Two reasons, really:

  • Two years ago, in the Bruen case (which was announced almost simultaneously with the Dobbs decision reversing Roe v Wade), the Court proclaimed a new test for Second Amendment constitutionality that called nearly all American gun laws into question.
  • And then in 2023, one of the few courts even more batshit crazy than the Supreme Court itself (the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals) applied the Bruen test to Zackey Rahimi and ordered the government to give him back his guns.

So that’s where we were as of Thursday: Unless the Court acted, Rahimi was getting his guns back, and the mother of his child had just better watch out. Not only wouldn’t the government help her, it was constitutionally barred from ever doing so, no matter what Congress or any other elected officials might think.

The Bruen test. You’ll never guess who wrote the majority opinion in Bruen. OK, maybe you will: corrupt Clarence Thomas, with the backing of the other five conservative justices, including all three of the Trump justices. The heart of that ruling is this:

[W]e hold that when the Second Amendment’s plain text covers an individual’s conduct, the Constitution presumptively protects that conduct. The government must then justify its regulation by demonstrating that it is consistent with the Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation. Only then may a court conclude that the individual’s conduct falls outside the Second Amendment’s “unqualified command.”

In a hearing before the Fifth Circuit, the government offered various colonial or founding-era analogues of the domestic abuse law in question, and the judges found none of them quite analogous enough. Justice Sotomayor’s concurrence with Friday’s decision explained why this might be:

Given the fact that the law at the founding was more likely to protect husbands who abused their spouses than offer some measure of accountability, see, e.g., R. Siegel, “The Rule of Love”: Wife Beating as Prerogative and Privacy, 105 Yale L. J. 2117, 2154–2170 (1996), it is no surprise that that generation did not have an equivalent to [the law Rahimi has challenged]. Under the dissent’s [i.e. Thomas’] approach, the legislatures of today would be limited not by a distant generation’s determination that such a law was unconstitutional, but by a distant generation’s failure to consider that such a law might be necessary. History has a role to play in Second Amendment analysis, but a rigid adherence to history, (particularly history predating the inclusion of women and people of color as full members of the polity), impoverishes constitutional interpretation and hamstrings our democracy.

Putting her point more bluntly: When the Second Amendment was ratified in 1791, women were not really people, and wives in particular were subject to the whims of their husbands in ways we no longer accept. So you’re not going to find much in the way of domestic-violence legislation from that era, much less laws disarming domestic abusers. But that’s because the founding generation just didn’t think domestic violence was a problem worthy of government action, not necessarily because they endorsed the right of dangerous people to be armed.

But the Fifth Circuit didn’t look at it that way: Nobody disarmed the Zackey Rahimis of 1791, so we shouldn’t be able to disarm Zackey Rahimi today.

Originalism. Like Justice Alito’s majority opinion in Dobbs, Thomas’ opinion in Bruen (and his dissent in Rahimi) is an example of a method of constitutional interpretation known as originalism. All six conservative justices claim to be originalists. In his Rahimi concurrence, Justice Kavanaugh restates the fundamental notion of originalism:

The first and most important rule in constitutional interpretation is to heed the text—that is, the actual words of the Constitution—and to interpret that text according to its ordinary meaning as originally understood.

Originalism was popularized by the late Justice Anton Scalia, who spent most of his career in the minority, writing rousing dissents. But in recent years, originalists have become the majority on the Court, raising a significant issue: How do you turn a critical theory into a governing theory? [2] Most of the time, Scalia didn’t have to worry about the practical implications of his views, because they weren’t going to be adopted anyway. Now, though, originalists have to be concerned with consequences, like arming the Zackey Rahinis of the world.

In arguing against originalist interpretations, it’s important to understand precisely where originalists are and aren’t coming from. The point isn’t that the Founders were divinely inspired lawgivers like Moses (though some conservatives do believe this). Originalism says something more fundamental about the basis of law in a constitutional democratic republic like the United States: For laws to be binding on the People, the People must at some point have accepted that burden. So any legitimate originalist analysis [3] revolves around the questions: When did the People accept this restriction or give the government this power?

So, for example, look back at another case in this term: Cargill, the bump-stock case. That case revolves around two questions: When did the American people give up their right to own machine guns? And what did they think a “machine gun” was at that time? The answer to the first question is that (through their elected representatives) they gave up that right in the National Firearms Act of 1938. The NFA contains a definition of machine gun, which the justices then argue about.

The blurring effects of time. The root problem with originalism is that a text’s “ordinary meaning as originally understood” is way more complicated than Kavanaugh makes it sound. Individual people living in the same era think at different levels of abstraction. So consider the “bear arms” phrase in the Second Amendment. To one American living in 1791, the Amendment might apply abstractly to all “bearable arms” — any weapon that can be carried by one person. [4] His neighbor might have a more specific way of thinking, and so picture “arms” as the weapons he has seen or handled personally: flintlocks, sabres, and bows. A third citizen might think about the effects of arms: To him, the Amendment applies to anything that does roughly the same amount of damage as flintlocks, sabres, and bows. He might not have been picturing African blowguns, but if you described them to him he would probably see them as “arms” as well.

At that one particular moment in 1791, those three ways of thinking were in alignment: The arms that could be borne were flintlocks, sabres, and bows, but not cannons. The three citizens have different mental notions, but they will agree on any specific case that comes up.

But as the world changes, notions that once agreed come out of alignment. Transport our three founding-era citizens to World War II and show them a bazooka. The first citizen sees a weapon bearable by one person, the second sees something totally unlike any weapon he has used, and the third sees something more analogous to a cannon than a flintlock. So what is the “original meaning” of Second Amendment “arms” as applied to a bazooka?

That’s why our jurisprudence is so inconsistent in its originalism. (My advice: Don’t try to buy a bazooka.) Take the NFA of 1938 for example. Our first citizen looks at a 1938 Thompson submachine gun (or our era’s combat-ready M-16) and sees a bearable weapon, so to him the NFA’s ban on such weapons is clearly unconstitutional. But none of our current “originalist” justices took that position in Cargill.

The blurring legal environment. Sometimes what changes isn’t technology, but the context of other laws that surround a given law. That’s what happened with same-sex marriage. The Obergefell decision that legalized same-sex marriage nationally in 2015 was based on the 14th Amendment, which was ratified in 1868. [5]

But did the people of 1868 or their elected representatives realize they were legalizing same-sex marriage? Of course not. In the legal environment of the time, same-sex marriage didn’t even make sense. At the time, husbands and wives had different rights and responsibilities under the law, so “Which one of you is the husband and which one is the wife?” was a legitimate question. Also, men had more legal rights than women — most obviously the right to vote, but many others as well. So all opposite-sex households had one vote, but a same-sex household had either zero votes or two. How could that be justified?

By 2015, though, all those legal problems had gone away, for reasons that had nothing to do with homosexuality. Under the law, there are two spouses with legal equality, and neither role requires any special rights only available to one gender or the other. So the only reason to write marriage laws restricted to opposite-sex couples is prejudice against same-sex couples — something “equal protection of the laws” doesn’t allow.

Americans of 1868 couldn’t have foreseen how “equal protection of the laws” would apply to marriage in 2015. But they understood what “equal protection” meant as a principle, and they agreed to it.

Back to Rahimi. Except for Thomas himself, all the justices — liberal and conservative alike — recognize that the originalist logic of Bruen has led the Court to the edge of an abyss: Rahimi should get his guns back. This obviously is a bad outcome, and who knows what worse monsters might also regain their arms and go on to murder their intimate partners or ex-intimate partners? This result is not only bad in itself, but — like Dobbs — will incite a voter backlash against the Court, and against the Republican Party that appointed this conservative majority.

That majority, above all, is partisan. Thomas and Alito clearly want to retire, but will only do so if a Republican president can replace them. The others (with the possible exception of Barrett, who hasn’t done enough yet to earn my negative judgment) enjoy being in the majority and don’t want a re-elected President Biden to shrink that majority by appointing liberals.

Possibly even worse is the effect Bruen has had on the lower courts. The standard of keeping the laws “consistent with the Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation” is not only impossibly vague, but the example Bruen sets — cherry-pick history until you get the result you want — invites the worst kind of judicial activism.

Justice Jackson (who hadn’t joined the Court yet when Bruen was decided) lays this out as politely as possible.

This case highlights the apparent difficulty faced by judges on the ground. Make no mistake: Today’s effort to clear up “misunderst[andings],” [from Roberts’ majority opinion] is a tacit admission that lower courts are struggling. In my view, the blame may lie with us, not with them.

The message that lower courts are sending now in Second Amendment cases could not be clearer. They say there is little method to Bruen’s madness. It isn’t just that Bruen’s history-and-tradition test is burdensome (though that is no small thing to courts with heavier caseloads and fewer resources than we have). The more worrisome concern is that lower courts appear to be diverging in both approach and outcome as they struggle to conduct the inquiry Bruen requires of them. Scholars [in an amicus brief on this case] report that lower courts applying Bruen’s approach have been unable to produce “consistent, principled results,” and, in fact, they “have come to conflicting conclusions on virtually every consequential Second Amendment issue to come before them”.

So Bruen needs to be fixed somehow, or at least reined in. But how?

Liberal interpretation. Everyone on the Court is an originalist up to a point: If the text of a law is clear, if its “ordinary meaning as originally understood” can be ascertained, and the varied understandings of people at the time are still more-or-less in alignment, then that well-understood text should be respected. If such a law needs to be fixed according to our current notions of justice, Congress should do it, not the Court.

Conservatives claim liberals don’t believe this [6], but we do.

On most issues controversial enough to reach the Supreme Court, though, liberals recognize that there is no “original understanding” that covers the contemporary situation. (See the examples above.) And yet there is a case that needs to be decided: Rahimi either gets his guns back or he doesn’t.

To state the liberal view more simplistically than probably any of the current liberal justices would: Liberals want to give the original lawmakers the benefit of the doubt. Maybe they couldn’t have foreseen the current situation, but they didn’t intend for us to do something stupid with their words. And while much has changed since the 1700s — women and the non-European races have become people, as Sotomayor points out — certain abstract notions of justice are closer to timeless, and are still more-or-less the same. So we can use those shared values to update our interpretation of the text.

Ideally, the most important texts come up fairly often, so that the record of judicial precedents represents a continuous updating rather than an abrupt break with the past (as Dobbs, Bruen, and Heller were). Like the laws themselves, precedents should be read generously, because the justices of the past also wouldn’t want us to do something stupid with their words.

Of course, this approach requires that current justices have some measure of wisdom and aren’t too humble to use it. That openly confident wisdom is anathema to originalists, who insist that any application of contemporary wisdom must happen covertly, by manipulating history and then claiming to follow it.

Originalism trying to fix itself. Every conservative justice but Alito wrote an opinion on this case. Thomas’ lonely dissent doubles down on Bruen: If the logic of Bruen sends us over a cliff, then here we go. But the other four aren’t willing to jump with him, and feel obligated to explain why not. All of them are sneaking some version of liberal interpretation into their thinking, while denying that they do so.

Roberts’ majority opinion claims that a law can be “consistent with the Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation” even if there is no exact parallel, as long as it is analogous to laws from the colonial or founding eras. How close does the analogy need to be? How many parallel regulations establish a “tradition” rather than an anomaly? He doesn’t precisely say. The point is to get enough wiggle room that we don’t have to give back Rahimi’s guns, an outcome that violates “common sense”.

Taken together, the surety and going armed laws confirm what common sense suggests: When an individual poses a clear threat of physical violence to another, the threatening individual may be disarmed.

Such an appeal to contemporary common sense clearly doesn’t sit well with the other conservative justices, who have to write concurrences to put their own spin on it. Kavanaugh’s opinion in particular is a long and fairly dull exposition of originalism that rarely mentions the current case. (As I read, I kept saying “Dude, write a textbook.”) To me, he seems to need to repledge his fealty to originalism precisely because he knows he’s violating it.

The only conservative concurrence that seems honest to me is Barrett’s. (I am developing a grudging affection for Barrett. She’ll probably disillusion me soon, but I have to give credit where it’s due.) Like Jackson, she recognizes that lower courts have had trouble applying Bruen, as well as the inherent limitations of the historical method Kavanaugh extols at such length.

[I]mposing a test that demands overly specific analogues has serious problems. To name two: It forces 21st-century regulations to follow late-18th-century policy choices, giving us “a law trapped in amber.” And it assumes that founding-era legislatures maximally exercised their power to regulate, thereby adopting a “use it or lose it” view of legislative authority. Such assumptions are flawed, and originalism does not require them.

“Analogical reasoning” under Bruen demands a wider lens: Historical regulations reveal a principle, not a mold.

Examining founding-era firearms regulations reveals the “contour” of the right the Founders thought they were recognizing, but doesn’t always lay down its precise terms. Barrett recognizes that being a judge requires applying a certain amount of wisdom to past examples, to draw out the abstract principles behind them. It’s not just “calling balls and strikes” as Roberts claimed at his confirmation hearing and Kavanaugh endorsed in his concurrence. She ends up deciding that the majority opinion in this case “settles on just the right level of generality”, and so she concurs.

I read that as a statement of confidence in her contemporary wisdom, not an effort to hide her judgment behind a fog of historicism.

Conclusion. The Rahimi case is not getting a lot of press coverage, largely because it came to a common-sense conclusion: Rahimi (and other malefactors like him) shouldn’t be armed. It is within the power of Congress and state legislatures to make such decisions.

But the conservative judges are subtly arguing about how to sneak contemporary wisdom (sometimes disguised as “common sense”) back into judicial reasoning. As a governing theory, originalism will have to recognize that the wisdom of the past does not solve all our problems. At some point, judges have be judicious.


[1] According to the Department of Justice:

Of the estimated 4,970 female victims of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter in 2021, data reported by law enforcement agencies indicate that 34% were killed by an intimate partner … Overall, 76% of female murders and 56% of male murders were perpetrated by someone known to the victim. About 16% of female murder victims were killed by a nonintimate family member—parent, grandparent, sibling, in-law, and other family member

[2] This problem parallels the one in the House of Representatives, where MAGA rebels suddenly have real power.

[3] I use the word legitimate because, as I’ve stated in other posts, I don’t believe that most originalist arguments are made in good faith. By cherry-picking historical examples and engaging in opportunistic reasoning no historian studying that era would vouch for, a judge can almost always find an “originalist” justification for whatever conclusion he wants to come to.

Justice Alito’s majority opinion in Dobbs, in my opinion, was an example of this kind of bad-faith historicism. And so was Justice Scalia’s opinion in 2008’s Heller case, which (as Justice Jackson puts it in her concurrence) “unearthed” a new individual right to bear arms, upsetting a consensus interpretation of the Second Amendment that Justice Breyer’s dissent in Heller claimed “ha[d] been considered settled by courts and legislatures for over two centuries”.

Justice Kavanaugh can’t admit that Scalia invented his Heller interpretation out of nothing, but does say: “Second Amendment jurisprudence is still in the relatively early innings, unlike the First, Fourth, and Sixth Amendments, for example. That is because the Court did not have occasion to recognize the Second Amendment’s individual right until recently.”

[4] This is the position Justice Scalia laid out in Heller:

the Second Amendment extends, prima facie, to all instruments that constitute bearable arms, even those that were not in existence at the time of the founding.

[5] Justice Kennedy’s majority opinion rooted his argument in the 14th Amendment’s Due Process clause, but (like some of the concurring justices) I think the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of “the equal protection of the laws” is a cleaner justification.

[6] Kavanaugh’s concurrence warns against “an approach where judges subtly (or not so subtly) impose their own policy views on the American people”, which he sees as the only alternative to originalism’s historical method of interpreting “vague” text.

This week’s legal decisions

A temporary victory for abortion pills, the effective legalization of machine guns, and lower court protection for families with trans children. Meanwhile, continued stalling to protect Donald Trump from prosecution.


We’re getting near the end of the Supreme Court’s term, so the rulings will come hot and heavy for the rest of the month. Several important cases are still pending, but a few decisions came in this week.

The abortion pill mifepristone got a reprieve. As I’ve explained in the past, there is a federal district around Amarillo where cases are wired to go in front of a Christian nationalist judge, Matthew Kacsmaryk, and go from there to the nation’s most conservative appeals court, the Fifth. In the spring of 2023, anti-abortion groups (established in Amarillo precisely to take advantage of this legal pipeline) targeted mifepristone, the drug used in more than half of abortions nationally.

Predictably, Kacsmaryk suspended the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, effectively banning it nationally. That decision was partially reversed by the Fifth Circuit, and then totally stayed by the Supreme Court, pending its own decision. (So far, no one has been prevented from using mifepristone in states where it would otherwise be permitted.)

There are many ways to reverse Kacsmaryk’s decision, because it is baseless both legally and scientifically. Vox described the scientific situation like this:

The case has virtually no scientific merit, and challenging the use of a drug that has been studied and safely used for over two decades is highly unusual. Jack Resneck Jr., the president of the American Medical Association, said in a statement Friday night that Kacsmaryk’s “disregard for well-established scientific facts in favor of speculative allegations and ideological assertions will cause harm to our patients and undermines the health of the nation.”

But the Court decided not to go there. Instead, it pointed to the legal ridiculousness of the lawsuit: The plaintiffs have no standing to sue. [1]

As was obvious from the beginning, these plaintiffs — primarily doctors who don’t prescribe mifepristone — have no standing. They made up, and two levels of federal courts accepted, a ridiculous explanation of how mifepristone harms them: On the rare occasions when mifepristone fails, a woman caught in the middle of a miscarriage might show up on their doorsteps or emergency rooms, and they might have to do a procedure they morally object to in order to save her life.

Putting aside the issue of how any principle requiring a doctor to do nothing while he watches a woman die can be considered “moral”, Justice Kavanaugh (writing for a rare 9-0 Court) noted that federal conscience protections already protect the doctors, so they are not injured. So the suit should never have been heard in the first place. Slate’s Dahlia Lithwich and Mark Joseph Stern comment:

A doctor who opposes abortion, the court affirmed, may stand by and watch a patient bleed out rather than treat her in contravention of his conscience. Ironically, then, an anti-abortion statute that protects anti-abortion doctors played a key role in defeating the plaintiffs’ claim. Their own lavish safeguards against terminating a pregnancy—or even just treating a patient who already terminated a pregnancy—helped defeat their attempt to pull mifepristone off the market.

They go on to observe:

Yet the decision was not a total defeat for anti-abortion activists. Among other things, Kavanaugh slipped language into his opinion that could expand protections for physicians who refuse to provide emergency abortions, potentially imperiling the lives of patients.

The Court’s ruling also left open the fundamental issue — whether the FDA was right (or within its legal authority) to approve mifepristone at all. The most likely course forward from here is that new plaintiffs with different explanations of why they are not busybodies will pick up the suit, and the whole circus will start again.

One path flows from a brief line near the end of the Alliance opinion: “[I]t is not clear that no one else would have standing to challenge FDA’s relaxed regulation of mifepristone.” Last January, Kacsmaryk ruled that three red states — Idaho, Missouri, and Kansas — could join this lawsuit and press the claim that mifepristone should be banned. 

It is far from clear how these states are injured by the mere fact that mifepristone is legal. But Kacsmaryk’s (and the Fifth Circuit’s) behavior in this case and others shows that he’s willing to bend the law into pretzels in order to rule against abortion rights. It is likely, in other words, that Kacsmaryk will simply make up some reason why the red states have standing to sue and then issue a new order attempting to ban mifepristone.

In other words, this isn’t over. Another path forward is that Trump could win the election and instruct the FDA to rescind its approval or impose new restrictions on mifepristone’s use, or reinterpret the Comstock Act of 1873 to prevent distribution of mifepristone by mail. Good luck getting a straight answer out of him on those questions.

It’s now legal to alter your AR-15 to function as a machine gun. If you’ve ever watched a gangster movie set in the Al Capone era, you’ve seen the destructive power of that era’s submachine guns, the weapon of choice in the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre of 1929.

Responding to that problem, Congress made tommy guns and other fully automatic weapons illegal for civilian use in the National Firearms Act of 1934. By 2002, though, a new technology had inserted a loophole in that ban: the bump stock. A bump stock is an add-on piece of equipment that uses a semiautomatic rifle’s recoil to release and pull the trigger over and over again, so that the shooter’s experience resembles firing a machine gun.

Most explanations of bump stocks available on the internet are by pro- or anti-gun activists, and so should be taken with a grain of salt. However, this one comes from a general how-things-work channel, Zack Nelson’s JerryRigEverything. The video was made while bump stocks were legal.

Zack refuses to state an opinion on whether bump stocks should be legal or not, saying ambiguously: “Personally, I think guns are a great hobby, but not everyone in the world is sane.”

Most people had never heard of bump stocks until the Las Vegas massacre of 2017, when a gunman used one to fire more than 1,000 rounds down on a crowd gathered for a music festival. He killed 60 and wounded over 400, with an almost equal number injured in the stampede of people trying to get to safety. (Like tommy guns, bump-stocked AR-15s aren’t very accurate, making them poor sniper weapons. But if you’re firing at thousands of people, accuracy isn’t that important.) To the untrained ear, audio from the massacre certainly sounds like somebody is firing a fully automatic weapon. (For what it’s worth, real gun people claim otherwise, that a fully automatic machine gun fires even faster.)

Responding to public outrage, the Trump administration Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) changed its interpretation of the NFA’s machine gun ban, ruling that a bump stock converted a semiautomatic weapon into an automatic weapon, and so was illegal. That ruling was challenged in court, and the case has taken six years to make it to the Supreme Court.

Friday, the Court struck down the bump stock ban in a ruling that split 6-3 along the usual ideological divide. The majority opinion was written by the corrupt Justice Clarence Thomas [2]. It centers on the exact definition of “machinegun” in the NFA:

any weapon which shoots, is designed to shoot, or can be readily restored to shoot, automatically more than one shot, without manual reloading, by a single function of the trigger.

Thomas goes on to focus on the “function of the trigger” in its mechanical sense: As far as the gun is concerned, its trigger is being pulled once for each shot. In her dissent, Justice Sonya Sotomayor focuses on the experience of the shooter, who pulls the trigger once and keeps his finger stationary as the gun bucks back and forth against it. The Congress of 1934, I suspect, intended to focus on the experience of the victims, but they didn’t phrase the law that way, so here we are.

In an ideal world, it’s obvious what would happen next: Congress would say “oops” and would amend the NFA based on some other criteria, like perhaps the rate of fire. That’s what President Biden wants [3], and what Justice Alito’s concurrence suggests, perhaps disingenuously.

There is a simple remedy for the disparate treatment of bump stocks and machineguns. Congress can amend the law—and perhaps would have done so already if ATF had stuck with its earlier interpretation. Now that the situation is clear, Congress can act.

The reason I suggest Alito’s recommendation might not be completely serious is that he knows his right-wing allies won’t allow this to happen. I would be amazed if Speaker Johnson allowed even the narrowest possible bump-stock ban to make it to the House floor for a vote, and Republicans would almost certainly filibuster such a bill in the Senate.

Sunday, possible Trump VP Senator Tim Scott dodged taking any position on a bump stock ban, while another Trump VP hopeful from the House, Byron Donalds went full gaslight:

A bump stock does not cause anybody to be shot in the United States. That is the shooter that does that.

Donalds might want to explain that to the families of the Las victims, many of whom would probably be alive if the shooter had not been able to use a bump stock. It’s also worth pointing out that Donalds’ logic justifies legalizing any weapon, no matter how destructive. After all, nuclear weapons don’t destroy cities, people destroy cities.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Republican Party’s lord and savior, convicted felon Donald Trump, for once expressed faith in our justice system.

The court has spoken and their decision should be respected.

This pattern is not a coincidence: If you make Congress dysfunctional and unresponsive to the people, and then interpret the laws and the powers of agencies like the ATF strictly, the result is that when technology changes, old regulations lapse and can’t be updated. That’s not some unfortunate bit of happenstance; it’s two sides of the same strategy. Today it results in the effective legalization of machine guns. Tomorrow the loophole will be in the Clean Air Act or the antitrust rules. When the laws stand still, malefactors adapt.

Gender-affirming care. In an important lower-court case, a judge found a Florida law banning gender-affirming care for minors to be unconstitutional. This ruling differs from the case of a similar Alabama law, which was upheld by the 11th Circuit appeals court (where this case is headed) in that Judge Robert Hinkle found malice on the part of the legislature. That issue wasn’t raised in the Alabama case.

The plaintiffs have shown that animus motivated a sufficient number of statutory decisionmakers.

Judge Hinkle found that “gender identity is real” and is distinct from an individual’s “external sexual characteristics and chromosomes”. He also noted that the treatments at issue — puberty blockers and hormones like estrogen and testosterone [4] — are legal in Florida for other purposes.

[C]onsider a child that a physician wishes to treat with GnRH agonists to delay the onset of puberty. Is the treatment legal or illegal? To know the answer, one must know whether the child is cisgender or transgender. The treatment is legal if the child is cisgender but illegal if the child is transgender, because the statute prohibits GnRH agonists only for transgender children, not for anyone else.

If these treatments have risks, parents of non-trans kids (in consultation with doctors) are allowed to judge those risks for themselves. But in trans cases, the state’s judgment prevails.

Susan Doe, Gavin Goe, and Mr. Hamel have obtained appropriate medical care. Qualified professionals have properly evaluated their medical conditions and needs in accordance with the well-established standards of care. The minors, to the extent of their limited ability, and their parents, and Mr. Hamel, all in consultation with the treating professionals, have determined that the benefits of their gender-affirming care will outweigh the risks. The parents’ and Mr. Hamel’s ability to evaluate the benefits and risks of this treatment in their individual circumstances far exceeds the ability of the State of Florida to do so.

Judge Hinkle found a motive for the State of Florida assuming the power to overrule parental and medical judgment:

The defendants [i.e., the State of Florida] have explicitly admitted that prohibiting or impeding individuals from pursuing their transgender identities is not a legitimate state interest. But the record shows beyond any doubt that a significant number of legislators and others involved in the adoption of the statute and rules at issue pursued this admittedly illegitimate interest.

The ruling quotes numerous statements by legislators or Governor DeSantis that show animus, such as referring to transgender witnesses at hearings as “mutants” and “demons”, denying the reality of gender identity, or exaggerating gender-affirming care by talking about “castrating” young boys. The fact that no one supporting the anti-care bill contested these statements, according to the judge, was evidence that such sentiments were widespread in the legislature.

Trump’s immunity. The Court continues to sit on the apparently simple issue of Donald Trump’s absolute-immunity claim, which has been rejected by every lower-court judge who heard it. By taking the case and refusing to rule promptly, the Court has made it all-but-certain that no trial can be held prior to the election on Trump’s plot to stay in power after losing in 2020. Without the Court’s interference, the public would already have heard testimony under oath from key witnesses like Mike Pence and Mark Meadows.

Particularly given the apparent bias of Justices Alito (whose home and vacation home were the site for pro-insurrection flags) and Thomas (whose wife traded texts with Mark Meadows to encourage resistance to accepting the will of the voters), it’s hard to see the Court’s actions as anything other than an attempt to put its thumb on the scale to Trump’s benefit.

My prediction is that the immunity ruling will come out on the second-to-last day of the term. Putting it last would underline the Court’s intent to delay justice, so the conservative majority will probably sacrifice a day or two of delay to avoid that poor appearance.


[1] Standing is one of the basic concepts of civil lawsuits: A court can only rule on a situation if a suit is brought by someone actually affected. For example, I can’t sue for divorce on behalf of one of my friends, no matter how convinced I am that she needs to be out of that marriage. Requiring that a plaintiff have standing is basically a no-busybodies rule.

[2] I am going to use the word corrupt whenever Thomas’ name comes up until he is either removed from the Court or is called to account in some other way. This week we found out that Thomas has received even more billionaire gifts than the $4 million that were previously known.

Thomas claims these gifts are not bribes, but fall into a loophole for gifts from “friends”. However, Thomas’ rich friends are right-wing donors he had never met before joining the Court.

So as far as this blog is concerned, “corrupt Justice Clarence Thomas” is his full name.

[3] Biden would also like to see an assault weapon ban in that amended bill, but is likely to sign a smaller reform if he gets the chance.

[4] Gender-affirming surgeries on minors, according to the judge, “are extraordinarily rare and are not involved in this litigation.”