Tag Archives: 2024 election

Can Trump Steal Georgia?

Once the election board picks a side, does it matter what the voters want?


The usual methods of stealing elections go back to Athens and Rome: Bring in unqualified voters of your own, or use force or trickery to prevent your opposition’s voters from showing up in the right place. If voters vote by dropping tokens in a box, miscount the tokens, or maybe lose boxes from precincts where you don’t expect to do well. There’s a long history of such tried-and-true methods being used in the United States, and voting systems are designed to avoid such shenanigans.

For the most part they’ve been designed pretty well, and by now actual election-day cheating is fairly rare (despite Donald Trump’s baseless claims about every election he’s ever lost, going back to the Iowa caucuses in 2016 and even the Emmys “The Apprentice” lost). That’s why most current cheating goes on before election day, by “purging” the voting roles of legitimate voters, or requiring IDs that your voters are more likely to have than your opposition’s voters.

2020. But in 2020, Trump came up with a novel scheme to cheat after all the votes had been cast and counted: At every level from county election boards to the counting of electoral votes in Congress on January 6, Trump did his best to delay certification of Biden’s victory. The goal of this delay was not just to declare himself the winner (as he hoped Mike Pence would do by counting the votes of his fake electors), but to delegitimize his loss by pushing certification past certain legal deadlines.

If January 6 had come and gone with no recognized winner, he might have been able to push the decision into the House, where each state has only one vote and Republican delegations outnumbered Democratic delegations. Or possibly the succession might have been decided in the Supreme Court, where the 6-3 Republican majority has shown its willingness to decide cases on a partisan basis. If January 20 had arrived and no new president could be inaugurated, then he might simply have stayed in power temporarily until … well, until never. If voters had taken to the streets to protest their disenfranchisement, right-wing militias could make sure that demonstrations turned into riots that required federal troops and temporary martial law.

At each stage, Trump would hold out the promise of a peaceful transfer of power … but not yet. Here’s what Ted Cruz was proposing on January 6:

And what I would urge of this body is that we do the same [as in the contested Hayes/Tilden election of 1876]. That we [appoint an] electoral commission to conduct a 10-day emergency audit, consider the evidence, and resolve the claims [of fraud]. For those on the Democratic aisle who says, say there is no evidence, they’ve been rejected, then you should rest [in] comfort if that’s the case.

From today’s perspective, when Trump is still making claims of fraud despite uncovering no evidence in nearly four years, it seems naive to imagine that any ten-day audit could have resolved the doubts Trump had falsely instilled in his followers. If the electoral commission didn’t decide in Trump’s favor, then it too would have been “rigged” and “fake”. So then it’s January 16, with four days to inauguration, and there’s still no president-elect. What then?

2024. Four years later, Trump has had time to refine this plan. In many ways, he’s in worse shape to pull it off: He isn’t president. So if Harris wins, but her victory can’t be certified by January 20, it’s Biden who might stay in power. (Biden might then resign and let Harris become president until her victory could be certified.) And as President of the Senate, it’s Kamala Harris who will preside over the joint session of Congress on January 6.

Also, one state where the election is likely to be close (Arizona) now has a Democratic governor, but another (Nevada) has flipped in the other direction.

But he has one advantage now that he didn’t have in 2020: Despite the lack of evidence, the myth of the 2020 stolen election has become dogma among Republicans, who have worked to make local election posts more partisan. Republican officials like Aaron van Langevelde, who voted to certify Biden’s victory in Michigan because that was his legal duty, have been replaced by people more loyal to Trump than to the law.

Across the country, county-level boards of canvassers have what is legally known as ministerial duties. They aren’t supposed to be investigators and they aren’t supposed to make judgment calls. The law assigns them the mundane job of receiving vote totals from the precincts, adding them up, and passing the information up to state officials by some set deadline. Recounts and challenges to the votes-as-first-counted are somebody else’s job.

But Republicans see county election boards as places to stand while they throw monkey wrenches into the system. If counties don’t certify totals and pass them up the line, then states also can’t certify elections. This has been tried out in various state and local elections since 2020, usually unsuccessfully. (Often the refusal to certify comes from rural Republican counties who are protesting election fraud that they imagine happens in urban Democratic counties.)

A few weeks ago, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) published a report Election Certification Under Threat. The report identifies 35 officials in eight states who have already refused to certify an election. Nearly all of them are either still in office or likely to be reappointed at any moment. The report lists, state by state, the actions that can be taken to overcome the threat.

Those steps usually begin with a mandamus lawsuit. Mandamus is Latin for “we command”, and is related to the English word mandate. In a mandamus case, a court has the power to force an official to do his or her job. If the official refuses, the court has options that vary by state. The court may appoint a new official, or fine or even jail the resisting official.

What gives a court this kind of power is the ministerial nature of the job. Typical state law says that election supervisors shall (not should or even may) certify an election within a certain time period. If they don’t, they’re violating the law. Even if the officials are correct in thinking that vote totals are tainted, dealing with that is somebody else’s job. They’re just supposed to collect numbers from the precincts, total them up, and pass the results on.

Mandamus suits should work just about everywhere. Local officials can call attention to their cause by initially refusing the certify an election, but ultimately they’ll have to.

Georgia. But “just about anywhere” may not include Georgia, which Biden carried by less than 12,000 votes in 2020, and where Harris/Trump polls are very close.

In a series of meetings in July and August, the Georgia State Election Board voted 3-2 to change the rules governing local election boards. (The three members voting to change the rules all deny that Joe Biden won Georgia in 2020, despite the complete lack of evidence for that view. Trump has given them a shout-out at a political rally. When was the last time a national candidate paid any attention to a state election board?) Lawrence Tribe and Dennis Aftergut summarize the new rules and their apparent purpose:

The first rule requires local election officials to conduct “reasonable inquiry” into election results before certifying them. The term “reasonable inquiry” is dangerously elastic, creating an opening for authoritarians to do whatever they want. No sensible court would ever approve such a system, by which unelected appointees could issue open-ended election rules making certification discretionary, especially without any such directive from the legislature of Georgia to end democracy.

The second rule permits individual county board members “to examine all election related documentation created during the conduct of elections prior to certification of results”. The opportunities are unlimited to delay certification by demanding that documents great and small be produced before certification.

One apparent goal is to bypass federal and state law requiring states’ votes certified in time for Congress, on 6 January 2025, to bless the election results. If enough states’ certifications are stalled so that too few electors are actually appointed as of 6 January, under the 12th amendment, the presidential election goes to the House. There, per the constitution, the election is determined by one vote per state delegation. Given gerrymandering and how the House is structured, Republicans have held a majority of the state delegations for years. In November, by their votes, Trump would become president, regardless of whether he has won the electoral college vote or a popular vote majority.

Who are those guys? One unintended benefit of Trump’s relentless assault on democratic processes is that we all get a rolling civics lesson. Here’s some stuff I never knew before about the Georgia State Elections Board:

The board has five members: one appointed by the state House, one chosen by the state Senate, one each from the Republican and Democratic parties, and a nonpartisan chair selected by the General Assembly or by the governor if the General Assembly is not in session when there is a vacancy.

The three Trumpists trying to monkey-wrench Georgia elections are the House, Senate, and Republican Party appointees. The Democratic appointee and the chair appointed by Republican Governor Kemp voted against the new rules.

You may notice from that description that none are elected by the People of Georgia, and so they really shouldn’t (and almost certainly don’t) have the power to circumvent laws passed by the legislature. If state law says that the local election officials have until 5 p.m. the next Monday to certify Tuesday’s election (as it does say), the GSEB can’t authorize further delay.

Remedies. With that in mind, some Georgia voters and the Georgia Democratic Party are suing the GSEB in state court

To remedy these harms and prevent chaos in November, this Court should follow decades of binding precedent and declare both that the statutes mean exactly what they say and that SEB’s rules must be construed consistent with those statutes in order to be a valid exercise of SEB’s authority. …

Such relief is needed now, before the November 5 election and the start of the six-day clock the election code sets for certification. Election officials are already setting procedures and staffing for canvassing. Similarly, candidates and political organizations are already allocating resources and making efforts to ensure that every vote is counted. Withholding relief until a county board or other superintendent relies on the rules to delay certification or not certify at all risks disorder, including extremely rushed emergency judicial proceedings across multiple courts; imposes additional burdens on Georgia’s courts, election officials, and political organizations; and could lead to the discarding of valid votes cast by qualified electors

Democrats may have some allies in this effort: Georgia’s Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Governor Brian Kemp. Both have denounced the new rules, and Kemp reportedly has asked the state attorney general to determine whether he can remove the GSEB’s three Trumpist members.

At a rally in Atlanta on August 5, Trump denounced Governor Kemp, who has consistently denied Trump’s claim that the 2020 Georgia election was rigged against him. But they have since patched up their differences and Kemp is supporting Trump. If Kemp removes board members Trump picked out for praise, though, the feud may start up again.

Harris’ best strategy: Win big, win everywhere. Of course, this disruption will only occur if Trump loses Georgia, and is only one of the tricks he can be expected to play in any state where the election is close. The best way to avoid another tense November, December, and early January is if Harris wins by margins large enough to dwarf Trump’s complaints, and to win in enough states that no single one is necessary for an Electoral College majority.

The most direct path for Harris to get 270 electoral votes (exactly) is to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, along with the 2nd congressional district in Nebraska. (Nebraska and Maine give separate electoral votes to each of their districts. Nebraska’s lone Democratic electoral vote should cancel the lone Republican vote from Maine.) Also in play are Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Winning two or three of those would protect the election from a lot of shenanigans.

A Week in Trump’s Declining Spiral

Trump has always done offensive things, and said ignorant, incoherent, or insane things. But I don’t think he used to say or do them every day.


One thing I’ve heard about aging, which I can verify from my own life, is that it doesn’t change your character so much as magnify it. Whatever you’ve always been, you’ll be moreso as you get old.

This week revealed that pattern in 78-year-old Donald Trump, who did something stereotypically Trumpy every day from Monday to Saturday.

Monday. He started the week with a bang, by desecrating the hallowed grounds of Arlington National Cemetery to film a campaign TikTok video. You can dive into the long explanation of what ANC’s rules are, why those rules exist, and how Trump violated them. Or you can take another long dive into the flim-flam he, Vance, and his campaign spread to excuse his inexcusable behavior. But all you really need to do is look at this photo:

You know this is wrong.

Trump giving an inappropriate thumbs-up is becoming a meme, like this image of Thumbs-Up Trump at Jesus’ crucifixion. I’m hoping Thumbs-Up Trump becomes as ubiquitous as Bernie in his mittens.

Tuesday. Trump announced a new line of NFT trading cards showing him in fantastically heroic settings — in superhero armor, wielding a lightning bolt — and looking slimmer and more muscular than he has in many years, if ever. For a mere $99 you get one digital file of a card-image. If you buy 250 of them ($24,750), you get one physical card, two tickets to a Trump-attended dinner at his golf club (I assume the one in New Jersey), and a piece of the true cross suit he wore when he debated Biden.

But MAGA isn’t a cult and Trump isn’t a grifter. It’s totally unfair to say that the man who made these cards or the people who spend money on them are weird.

Wednesday. Trump unleashed a series of Truth Social posts that were extreme even by his standards. He reposted memes that

  • called for “public military tribunals” to try Barack Obama,
  • suggested indicting the House January 6 Committee for sedition,
  • commented on a photo of Harris and Hillary Clinton together that “blowjobs impacted both their careers differently”,
  • pictured Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton, Anthony Fauci, Nancy Pelosi, and Bill Gates in orange prison jumpsuits with the caption “How to Actually Fix the System”.

When he’s called on stuff like this, the usual excuse is that he didn’t create the memes, he just reposted them. But reposting without criticism is endorsement. It says, “I think more people should see this.”

Thursday. At a rally in La Crosse, Wisconsin, he blamed wind energy for people eating less bacon.

Look at bacon and some of these products and some people don’t eat bacon any more. And we are going to get the energy prices down. You know, this was caused by their horrible energy. Wind. They want wind all over the place. But when it doesn’t blow we have a little problem.

Also Thursday, he began a two-day flip-flop on abortion, an issue that he insists voters don’t really care about. Currently, Florida bans almost all abortions of fetuses more than six weeks old. (Embryos, actually. They’re not considered fetuses until eight weeks.) NBC News asked Trump how he (a Florida resident) planned to vote on an upcoming Florida referendum to guarantee abortion rights “before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider”.

He replied: “I am going to be voting that we need more than six weeks.” That sounded like a Yes vote on the referendum, which would repeal the six-week ban. A No vote would leave it in place.

In that same interview, he said that in his next administration, the government would pay for all IVF treatments (which are very expensive) but didn’t say what program would cover them or where the money would come from.

Friday. A busy day. After a freakout from Evangelical “Christians”, he walked back the previous day’s statement on the Florida referendum, announcing that he would vote No. The anti-abortion faction hates his IVF proposal too, but so far he hasn’t walked it back.

(Naturally, though, it’s Harris who gets bad press for changing the position she held on fracking five years ago, and for not providing details of her proposals. It would be completely unacceptable for Harris to change her position on some major issue from one day to the next, or to announce an expensive new program with no supporting details.)

Also Friday, he shared this insane dark fantasy with a Moms For “Liberty” gathering:

The transgender thing is incredible. Your kid goes to school and comes home a few days later with an operation. The school decides what’s going to happen with your child. And then many of these childs [sic] 15 years later look back and say “What the hell. Who did this to me?”

This kind of stuff deserves to be judged by the Greyhound standard: If you were sitting next to a stranger on a cross-country bus, and he said something this detached from reality, you’d get up and move, wouldn’t you?

Friday night in Jonestown, Pennsylvania, Trump was introduced by Florida Congressman Byron Donalds, who (like Kamala) is Black. When Trump got on stage, he said:

That one is smart! You have smart ones and you have some that aren’t quite so good.

When I was growing up in the 1960s, I heard lots of people say things like this. But usually those statements explicitly included the N-word rather than just implying it. So I guess there has been progress.

Saturday and Sunday. His interview with Mark Levin aired on Fox News.

He confessed to “interfering” in the certification of the 2020 election, but claimed

Whoever heard, you get indicted for interfering in a presidential election when you had every right to do it?

As MSNBC’s Joyce Vance noted, “There’s no right to interfere in a presidential election.” And former prosecutor Elizabeth de Vega added: “Keep talking, moron.”

On the trade deficit with China, he claimed “I had them down much smaller”, which is a fantasy. Here are the actual year-by-year US trade deficits with China. Note the peak in 2018, a Trump year, and the low in 2023, a Biden year.

He also claimed “China paid me hundreds of billions of dollars.” That might be a reference to tariffs, which Trump imagines are paid by foreign exporters rather than American importers. Ultimately, of course, tariffs are passed on to US consumers the same way that sales taxes are.

In the same interview, Trump called Kamala Harris “nasty” for the way she treated Mike Pence, presumably during their vice presidential debate in 2020. However, Harris supporters have never called for Pence to be hanged, as Trump supporters did on January 6.


But today begins a new week. Who knows what marvels it will reveal?

The Convention That Ate Republicans’ Lunch

With a near-perfect convention in Chicago, Democrats stole themes Republicans have been running on for decades: freedom, opportunity, tradition, patriotism, family, manliness, small-town values, and who the “real Americans” are.


When they left Milwaukee, Republicans were happy with their convention. True, Trump’s acceptance speech had failed to stick the landing, and many were still uncertain that J. D. Vance had been the best (or even a good) choice for VP, but those seemed like quibbles. For four days — right up to the last hour of Trump’s 90-minute speech — the party had been united, put on a good show, and looked poised to do well in November against a Democratic ticket headed by Joe Biden.

And then Biden did something beyond Donald Trump’s imagination: He sacrificed his own ambitions for the sake of his party and the country. Republicans still resist grasping what Biden did: With occasional help from the NYT, they describe his voluntary withdrawal as a “coup” (as if January 6 hadn’t shown us what a coup really looks like) and keep portraying Biden as bitter and angry. Weeks later, Trump was still fantasizing that Biden would make a scene at the convention.

What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kamabla, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE. He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!!

But Monday night, as in all his public appearances, Biden was gracious and generous towards Kamala Harris and the entire Democratic Party. If this was all an act, it was an act far beyond Trump’s abilities. Under no circumstances could Trump have contained his disappointments and resentments in front of a national audience for 50 minutes. And yet somehow, he imagined that “senile” Joe Biden could be such a brilliant performer. But Trump can hold those two thoughts together in his mind — Biden is senile and Biden can make an Oscar-worthy presentation — more easily than he can imagine the truth:

It’s been the honor of my lifetime to serve as your president. I love the job, but I love my country more.

Biden’s speech was just the beginning of a four-day master class in how to run a convention. All week, I felt like the Democrats were teaching Republicans how it’s done: You had Kid Rock and Jason Aldean? OK, we’ve got Stevie Wonder, John Legend, and Pink. We see your celebrity Hulk Hogan and raise you Oprah Winfrey. Your people waved signs saying “Mass Deportation Now!”, but we prefer “Freedom” and “USA”. Your rising talent was Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz, but we could showcase people who are authentically gifted speakers: Pete Buttigieg, Josh Shapiro, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, and Wes Moore.

Unsurprisingly, the DNC ratings were consistently higher, night by night, than the RNC’s. And that included Kamala Harris’ acceptance speech out-doing Donald Trump’s, despite him being only days past an assassination attempt and the (unfounded) media hype about how it had changed him.

And then there was the roll call that put the “party” back in political party.

And one-liners? Beat this one: Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett said,

Kamala Harris has a resume. Donald Trump has a rap sheet.

Michigan’s Attorney General Dana Nessel had a line that turned an age-old NRA slogan upside-down:

I’ve got a message for the Republicans and the justices of the US Supreme Court: You can pry this wedding band from my cold, dead, gay hand.

Turning old Republican tropes upside-down became a repeating motif of the Democratic Convention. Republicans used to be the party that wanted to “defend marriage”, but now it is Republicans like the corrupt Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas who threaten marriage, and Democrats like Nessel who pledge to defend it to the death.

But marriage was just one of the concepts that Democrats took back from a Republican Party that had owned them for too long.

Freedom. Republicans used to style themselves as the party of freedom, but Tim Walz yanked that word away from them:

When Republicans use the word “freedom”, they mean that the government should be free to invade your doctor’s office. Corporations, free to pollute your air and water. And banks, free to take advantage of customers. But when we Democrats talk about freedom, we mean the freedom to make a better life for yourself and the people that you love. Freedom to make your own health care decisions. And yeah, your kids’ freedom to go to school without worrying about being shot dead in the hall.

Josh Shapiro tied it to Trump’s efforts to stay in power through fraud and force after losing the 2020 election:

It’s not freedom to tell our children what books they’re allowed to read. And it’s not freedom to tell women what they can do with their bodies. It sure as hell isn’t freedom to say, “You can go vote, but he gets to pick the winner.” That’s not freedom.

Freedom has become a central theme of Harris’ campaign, with Beyoncé’s “Freedom” as its theme song.

Family. When Ronald Reagan ran on “family values” with the support of Jerry Falwell’s Moral Majority, Republicans meant the (implicitly White and Christian) Mom-Dad-and-2.1-perfect-children families of 1950s sit-coms. But this week the DNC showcased and celebrated American families as they actually are.

It started with the candidates. On the surface, no family’s story could be more Reagan-era normal than the Walzes: Two White Midwestern high school teachers fall in love and are still together decades later, having raised a boy and a girl. But they are open about relying on fertility treatments to accomplish that feat, and they don’t keep their neuro-divergent son hidden at home. (More about him later.)

And then there’s the blended Emhoff-Harris family: A Jewish lawyer was married for 16 years and had two children (again, a boy and a girl). But then he got divorced, and five years later he went on a blind date with the Afro-Asian-American attorney general of California, who was herself the child of divorced parents. They got married and remain on good terms with his first wife (who produced a video for the convention). Doug Emhoff has always supported Kamala’s ambitions, and Ella Emhoff had tears in her eyes as the convention cheered for her apparently-not-wicked stepmother.

Family was everywhere in the convention speeches, with speaker after speaker quoting wisdom instilled in them by a parent, mentor, teacher, or coach. (You will search Donald Trump’s speeches in vain to find a comparable passage. In his stories, he has always known everything.) Harris presented her own it-takes-a-village childhood like this:

My mother worked long hours. And, like many working parents, she leaned on a trusted circle to help raise us. Mrs. Shelton, who ran the daycare below us and became a second mother. Uncle Sherman. Aunt Mary. Uncle Freddy. And Auntie Chris. None of them, family by blood. And all of them, family by love.

Family who taught us how to make gumbo. How to play chess. And sometimes even let us win. Family who loved us. Believed in us. And told us we could be anything. Do anything. They instilled in us the values they personified. Community. Faith. And the importance of treating others as you would want to be treated. With kindness. Respect. And compassion.

In the Democratic world, as in America, family is defined by love rather than blood. Your family is made up of the people you can count on when you need them, and not just the people who share your DNA.

Masculinity. The Republican Convention was nothing if not masculine. Trump entered the hall on Day 3 to James Brown’s “It’s a Man’s Man’s Man’s World“. And prior to the candidate’s acceptance speech the next night, Hulk Hogan tore off his shirt and lumped together Trump’s fraud convictions, his lost civil trials, and his assassination attempt as the work of a mysterious “they” who need to be punished.

When I look out and I see all the real Americans, I think about how Donald Trump, his family was compromised. When I look out there and I see Donald Trump, I think about how his business was compromised. But what happened last week when they took a shot at my hero and they tried to kill the next President of the United States, enough was enough. I said, “Let Trump-a-mania run wild, brother! Let Trump-a-mania rule again. Let Trump-a-mania, make America great again.” …

You know, guys, over my career, I’ve been in the ring with some of the biggest, some of the baddest dudes on the planet, and I’ve squared off against warriors, ooh, yeah, savages, and I’ve even, like I said, body slammed giants in the middle of the ring. I know tough guys but let me tell you something, brother, Donald Trump is the toughest of them all. …

This November, guys, we can save the American dream for everyone, and Donald Trump is the president who will get the job done. All you criminals, all you lowlifes, all you scumbags, all you drug dealers, and all you crooked politicians need to answer one question, brother. Whatchya gonna do when Donald Trump and all the Trump-a-maniacs run wild on you, brother?

But the DNC presented a different model of masculinity, whose manliness is unlikely to “run wild” on anyone: Tim Walz — coach, teacher, soldier, mentor, neighbor, father. I’ve heard a new phrase used to describe Walz: tonic masculinity rather than the toxic masculinity of dominance and violence. Ben Ingman, who remembered Walz as his geography teacher and 7th-grade track coach, started his speech with this:

Tim Walz is the kind of guy you can count on to push you out of a snowbank. I know this because Tim Walz has pushed me out of a snowbank.

Ingman invited members of Walz’ state-championship-winning football team up onto the stage, and they cheered for their former coach.

He described Walz’ coaching style, which also took the track team to a state championship:

Coach Walz got us excited about what we might achieve together. He believed in us, and he helped us believe in each other.

Walz stepped up to be the first faculty advisor of the high school’s gay/straight alliance. The gay student who came out of the closet to start the club recently said:

It was important to have a person who was so well-liked on campus, a football coach who had served in the military. Having Tim Walz as the adviser of the gay-straight alliance made me feel safe coming to school.

Walz’ masculinity fits with Harris’ vision of strength.

Over the last several years there’s been this kind of perversion that has taken place, which is to suggest that the measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you beat down, when what we know is the real and true measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up.

To the best of my knowledge, Tim Walz has never body-slammed anybody in the style of Hulk Hogan. But he has consistently lifted people up. And occasionally he has pushed them out of snowbanks.

Walz was only one of many examples of tonic masculinity at the DNC. Another was Astronaut/Senator Mark Kelly, who wordlessly walked his wife Gabby Giffords onto the stage and literally served as her right hand, managing the iPad that contained her speech so that she could gesture with her left hand, the one that still functions. He filled his role so egolessly that I did not even realize what he was doing until I watched the video a second time. (You can bet that if Melania ever needs that kind of help, Trump will move on to Wife #4.)

And then there was Biden himself, sacrificing personal ambitions so that the country he loves will not slide into autocracy. I was reminded of the ending of Lev Grossman’s The Magician King (the middle book of his Magicians trilogy). After plans have succeeded and the day has been saved, the god Ember appears to enforce the rules that have been broken along the way: Quentin (the trilogy’s main character) is to be banished from Fillory, the magical realm he has loved since childhood, when he thought it was fictional.

Quentin protests that he deserves better, because he has been the hero of this story, and “the hero gets the reward.” “No Quentin,” the god replies. “The hero pays the price.”

If American democracy is saved again in 2024, it will be because Joe Biden was willing to pay the price. That’s what a real man does.

One moment from the convention brought the two parties’ divergent views of masculinity into sharp focus: When Walz told the cheering crowd about the importance of his family — “Hope, Gus and Gwen, you are my entire world, and I love you.” — Gus burst into tears, saying “That’s my Dad.”

That video went viral, but drew ridicule from Trumpists. Former conservative talk-show host Charlie Sykes described it as “the definitive Rorschach Test for the world’s worst human beings”. One of those human beings, Ann Coulter, posted a picture of Gus crying with the comment “Talk about weird …” Former congressman Mike Crispi called Gus “Tim Walz’s stupid crying son” and a “puffy beta male”. He also tweeted “Barron Trump is the future. Tim Walz’s children are nobody’s going nowhere.” And conservative radio host Jay Weber tweeted:

Sorry, but this is embarrassing for both father and son. If the Walzs represent today’s American man, this country is screwed: “Meet my son Gus. He’s a blubbering bitch boy. His mother and I are very proud.”

But Tim Walz is man enough to endure disdain from the Jay Webers of this world, if that’s what it takes for his son to share important moments with him. Personally, I have two reactions: First, you can fake almost anything in politics, but you can’t fake a reaction like Gus had. And second, I imagine most fathers saw Gus and thought: “I wonder if my children feel that way about me.” Pete Buttigieg’s husband Chasten tweeted:

I hope to inspire my kids so much that when they see me speak of the dreams and passion I have for my country they are moved to tears like Gus Walz was. @Tim_Walz has dedicated his life to service and has clearly exceeded in being an excellent, supportive, and loving father every step of the way. We should all be so lucky to know a love like that.

Religious writer John Pavolitz traced the roots of the Republican urge to bully those who don’t fit their cookie-cutter view of the world:

This week has reminded us how morally poisoned our collective bloodstream is.

And the sad part of all of this is, we all know how we got here.

We are witnessing in real-time, the cost of elevating someone like Donald Trump to power: of normalizing his ignorant name-calling, his exploiting of differences, his bullying of those who are vulnerable or different, his hatred of expressions of love that he is incapable of.

This pattern was on display nine years ago when he mocked a disabled reporter and what should have been a campaign-killing moment became the first in an expansive and still-growing resume of filth.

Tradition. Republican rhetoric is full of respect for tradition, from “originalist” legal theory to “that old time religion”. But the current Republican Party is trapped in the present by its worship of Trump. The Republican Convention honored no pre-Trump Republican tradition, and at times gave the impression that the GOP had not existed until Trump came down his escalator in 2015.

By contrast, some of the finest and most emotional moments in the Democratic Convention centered on what the Party owes to the heroes of its recent past. Joe Biden, of course, is not past yet, since he is still president. But he has stood for his last election, so the long ovation he got Monday night and the chants of “Thank you, Joe” that could erupt at any moment constituted a profoundly sentimental send-off.

The Obamas gave a pair of top-flight speeches, with many observers suggesting history will remember Michelle’s as one of the best convention speeches ever. No one could fail to note the appropriateness of Hillary Clinton addressing a convention trying once again to elect the first woman president. (In one reaction shot during Hillary’s speech, Gwen Walz was in tears.) Her mention of Trump’s felony convictions inspired a “Lock him up” chant, which Hillary handled perfectly: She neither encouraged it nor cut it off as she tried to suppress a smile.

But any Republican legacy had vanished down the memory hole: Mitt Romney? The Bushes? Dick Cheney? Paul Ryan? Kevin McCarthy? John Boehner? Mike Pence? They have all become unpeople, because there is no room for them in the Trump personality cult.

Who is really American? I’m not sure which politician coined the phrase real Americans, which I just quoted Hulk Hogan using. I first registered it in 2008, when Sarah Palin kept identifying the rural White counties where she was popular as “real America”. The phrase almost never gets defined, but we all know generally who it points to: White straight native-born Christians who speak English at home and have no obvious mental or physical dysfunctions.

A lot of the legitimacy of Trump’s claim to have won the 2020 election rests on this vague sense that some Americans are more real than others. Even people who understand the absurdity of Trump’s fantasies that vote totals were changed overseas or large numbers of non-citizens voted or mail-in votes were faked or some other less specific claim — even many of them feel in their hearts that Trump should have won, because so many of Biden’s votes came from Blacks, or naturalized Hispanic or Asian citizens, or gays, or Jews, or others whose American-ness is questionable. Real Americans, the people whose votes should count, overwhelmingly supported Trump.

A related question is what an immigrant has to do, beyond the formal naturalization process, to really be American. Melania Trump is a White Christian immigrant, and Usha Vance is a Hindu born in America to Indian immigrants. Presumably they are both OK, so it must be possible.

In a column for The Washington Post, Matt Bai examined how the two VP candidates articulated conflicting visions of what makes someone an American. Vance denied that “America is an idea” and postulated instead that “a group of people with a shared history and a common future”.

Of course there’s room for immigration and racial diversity in Vance’s worldview; his own wife is of Indian descent. But in his view of America, the outsider becomes American by adopting a set of cultural norms — living here “on our terms,” as he put it in his speech. In this way, he sees America as no different, really, from France or Russia or any other country with common ethnic heritage. The price of admission is cultural conformity.

But Walz presented a different view.

In the America Walz described in his convention speech, it doesn’t matter what language you speak at home or what god (if any) you worship, or whether you have kids (naturally or otherwise). Because as long as you believe in the American promise of liberty and adhere to its laws, you’re just as American as anyone else, and anybody who doesn’t like it should “mind their own damn business.”

Community, in Walz’s telling, isn’t defined by somebody’s idea of cultural norms, but rather by your connection to your neighbors. If you’re willing to help out with a stranded car or a bake sale, then he doesn’t care if you’re an atheist or a cat-owner (or, God forbid, both).

Walz’ view, to me, seems very appropriate for a high school teacher: America is neither an abstract idea nor an ethno-cultural nation like France. America is a project. If you pitch in, you belong.

How was this possible? Democrats were able to take these themes (and several others) away from Republicans because the GOP has spent years giving them little more than lip service. When Ron DeSantis began banning books and threatening teachers who taught inconvenient facts about American history, those actions raised no debate about freedom within the Republican Party. There has been no controversy about nominating a philandering, twice-divorced, pussy grabber to lead the party of family values. When one jury of ordinary Americans found Trump responsible for sexual assault, another ruled beyond a reasonable doubt that he had committed fraud, and he avoided his other felony indictments through delaying tactics rather than by challenging the evidence against him, members of the law-and-order party attacked the justice system rather than question their allegiance to a criminal.

The convention speech that brought this all home was by former Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger:

I’ve learned something about my party too, something I couldn’t ignore: The Republican Party is no longer conservative. It has switched its allegiance from the principles that gave it purpose to a man whose only purpose is himself. 

Donald Trump is a weak man pretending to be strong. He is a small man pretending to be big. He’s a faithless man pretending to be righteous. He’s a perpetrator who can’t stop playing the victim. He puts on—listen—he puts on quite a show, but there is no real strength there. 

As a conservative and a veteran, I believe true strength lies in defending the vulnerable. It’s in protecting your family. It’s in standing up for our Constitution and our democracy. That—that is the soul of being a conservative. It used to be the soul of being a Republican. But Donald Trump has suffocated the soul of the Republican Party. His fundamental weakness has coursed through my party like an illness, sapping our strength, softening our spine, whipping us into a fever that has untethered us from our values.

Whatever they may have meant to past generations, in 2024 Republican values have become a “show” with “no real strength” behind them. That’s why Democrats were able to take them back this week.

Harris, Trump, and Our Broken News Media

In recent weeks, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have taken opposite approaches to dealing with the media. Harris has taken few on-the-record questions from reporters, and has focused instead on talking to the voters directly in rallies. She and her running mate Tim Walz are drawing large, raucous crowds that cheer their every word, much the way Trump’s crowds did in past elections, when he was more energetic and his act wasn’t quite so stale.

Trump, meanwhile, seems reluctant to leave home. He has settled into a schedule of two rallies a week, appearing only eight times in the month since the Republican Convention. Harris, by contrast, recently spoke to seven rallies in five days, and has made her way towards the Democratic convention on a bus that stopped in numerous small towns in Pennsylvania. Instead, Trump held news conferences at his Mar-a-Lago home and his Bedminster golf club, as well as an online interview with centibillionaire Elon Musk.

For obvious reasons, the media prefers Trump’s approach, even though it seems to be working badly for him. Harris has been surging in the polls, and now leads Trump in all the national polling averages (RCP, 538, NYT, Economist), as well as in recent polls of most swing states. While Biden’s hopes for Electoral-College victory followed only one shaky path (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania — where he was behind, but usually within the margin of error), Harris is also ahead or very close in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and even North Carolina. She is unlikely to carry Ohio or Florida, but is running strong enough that Republicans will have to actively defend those once-safe states.

Nonetheless, the media holds that it is Harris who needs to change her strategy. She “must speak to the press” and “needs to present her ideas” by answering press questions. Otherwise she’s running a “no-substance campaign“. She needs an Issues page on her campaign website, filled with white papers proposing specific policies that can be analyzed and critiqued in the media (because that worked so well for Hillary Clinton).

All this lines up with a vision of democracy I grew up believing: The press represents the People. Reporters use their access to ask the questions that voters want answered. When they demand answers, it is because the People need those answers. Ignoring the press means ignoring the voters, which the voters will resent.

And sometimes, the press is an older, wiser aunt or uncle to the voters. Reporters have the time to study issues and become experts in them, so they ask questions that the voters would ask, if they knew more. While voters may get distracted by the flash and gimmickry of a campaign, the press will stay focused on what’s truly at stake.

Quite likely you are laughing now, or at least smiling, at my younger self’s naivety. Because if the press ever filled such a role, it hasn’t for a very long time. James Fallows was already diagnosing the problem in his 1996 book Breaking the News: How the Media Undermine American Democracy. Rather than raise the questions the voters are or should be asking, the press covers elections like sporting events: Who’s ahead? What is each team’s strategy? How likely is that strategy to work? Or (like trouble-making junior high gossips) they try to get one candidate to say something nasty about the other, which they can take to the other candidate and (hopefully) get something nasty in response.

None of that is what wavering voters want or need to know. None of it helps the electorate imagine how a future Smith or Jones administration will affect their lives.

For example, look at what reporters asked about when they did get access to Harris: her plans to debate Trump, and what she thought of Trump’s criticisms of herself or Tim Walz. Not a word about taxes or inflation or competing with China or climate change or abortion.

And why would Harris sit down for an extended interview with a “neutral” journalist, when she has just seen how un-neutrally journalists treated President Biden? After his disastrous debate with Trump, Biden tried to prove his mental competence by meeting with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. Stephanopoulos could have simultaneously tested Biden’s mind and served the public interest by asking a wide range of questions that would force the President to jump from one serious issue to the next: Ukraine, the economy, voting rights. Instead, he spent 22 minutes badgering Biden with different versions of the same question: What would have to happen for Biden to drop out of the race?

When Biden held a press conference after the NATO summit, and demonstrated his deep and detailed knowledge of problem areas around the world, headlines the next day focused on moments when he said the wrong name, and on his “defiant” insistence on staying in the presidential race. (Who was he defying, exactly?)

Trump, meanwhile, has the media tamed. After years of insults and abuse, the “fake news media” doesn’t even try to ask follow-up questions that challenge his false claims. Whatever he says is just “Trump being Trump”.

Saturday, for example, Trump appeared not to know what state he was in. At a rally in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania, he asked the crowd: “Would that be OK, North Carolina?” If Biden had done that a few weeks ago, it would have been a banner headline. But CNN , the NYT, and the WaPo didn’t find Trump’s confusion worth mentioning. (Robert Reich claims to have asked reporters why they don’t cover “Trump’s malfunctioning brain”. They reply that it’s old news.)

Post-event fact-checking has its place, but the checks never catch up to the lies, because far fewer people see them. NPR fact-checked Monday’s Mar-a-Lago press conference and found 162 lies and distortions delivered in 64 minutes — approximately one every 24 seconds. But the news networks had given Trump free air time to spew those lies with no real-time corrections. He took full advantage by telling the millions of viewers these howlers:

  • Willie Brown told him “terrible things” about Kamala Harris, which Brown would do because Trump knows him “very well” after they “went down in a helicopter” together. (This entire story is a fantasy. Three decades ago, Trump shared an emergency helicopter landing with a different Black politician who has not discussed Harris with him.)
  • “Millions” of people are coming to America from other countries’ “prisons, from jails, from mental institutions”.
  • Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic candidate is “unconstitutional”.
  • His January 6 crowd was larger than the crowd that heard Martin Luther King’s Dream speech.
  • Reversing Roe v Wade is what “everybody” wanted: “That’s Democrats, Republicans and Independents and everybody, liberals, conservatives, everybody wanted it back in the States, and I did that. … I’ve done what every Democrat and every every Republican wanted to have done.”
  • An electric truck is “two-and-a- half times heavier” than a gas-powered truck.
  • Democrats want to allow abortions after birth.
  • He was “very protective” of Hillary Clinton. “They used to say, lock her up, lock her up. And I’d say, just relax, please.” (You remember that, don’t you?)

Check NPR’s article for why none of that is even close to being true.

But in fact Trump’s Potemkin press conferences are even worse than just the specific lies, in ways you can only appreciate if you watch the whole video or read the whole transcript. Because in the entire 64 minutes, there was not a single speck of useful information.

When he wasn’t lying outright, he was making claims about the parallel universe where he was reelected in 2020. Everything is perfect there: There was no post-Covid inflation. Putin didn’t invade Ukraine. Hamas didn’t attack on October 7. Iran folded under the pressure of his sanctions and ended its nuclear program. That’s why he doesn’t need to tell us how he would deal with these situations, because none of them ever would have happened if he were still president.

Or he was predicting disaster without offering any explanations: We’re on the verge of “a depression of the 1929 variety”. Simultaneously, “we’re very close to a world war”. If Harris becomes president “It’s going to be a failure the likes of which this world has never seen.”

Or he was testifying to things that (even if they were true) he couldn’t possibly know: President Biden “is a very angry man right now. He’s not happy with Obama and he’s not happy with Nancy Pelosi.” (Does Biden call him late at night and confide his deepest thoughts?)

Or he was throwing around value judgments unmoored from any standards: Biden is the worst president in US history. Harris is the worst vice president, and also “the most unpopular” (though she’s kicking his butt in the polls). She is “a radical left person” and also “the worst Border Czar” (a position that has never existed). Nancy Pelosi is “crazy”. Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom “destroyed San Francisco” and “destroyed the state of California”. “We have a very sick country right now.” Josh Shapiro (whose approval/disapproval rating is at +18) “is a terrible guy and he’s not very popular with anybody.” Tim Walz is “heavy into the transgender world”.

In short, he said nothing of any news value, and nothing that would help a voter picture his life in a second Trump administration. The “press conference” was a string of take-it-or-leave-it assertions, a naked attempt to overpower voters’ thought processes rather than convince them of anything.

But you would not grasp any of that from the news stories written about the event. The Hill described it as “long and characteristically rambling”, i.e., Trump being Trump.

After the Mar-a-Lago press conference, Lawrence O’Donnell called out his colleagues in a rant that is well worth watching in its entirety. He began by questioning why a network (especially his own MSNBC) would put Trump on the air to say whatever he wanted without live fact-checking. But then he unloaded on the whole Trump/Harris comparison:

There are rumblings now in the news media about Kamala Harris as a presidential candidate not doing what Donald Trump did: stand in front of reporters today and take their questions. And some of the tiny minds in the news media continue to give credit to Donald Trump for standing up and lying in response to every single question they ask. A lie is not an answer. Donald Trump never answers reporters’ questions. Anyone in the news media that tells you Donald Trump has answered reporters’ questions and Kamala Harris hasn’t is lying to you. And they are too stupid to know they are lying to you because they don’t know what an answer is.

Trump has no policy proposals worth mentioning. The RNC platform promises that he will end inflation “very quickly”, but gives no hint as to how. He has said he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, but again, that sound bite is the whole of his stated policy on the topic.

Or at least, he has no proposals he will admit to. Project 2025 is full of detailed policy for a second Trump administration, but its proposals are unpopular, so Trump denies it, despite a recently-revealed undercover video in which Project 2025’s Russell Vought gave his pitch to British journalists that he thought were prospective donors. Vought dismissed Trump’s denials as “graduate-level politics”, and noted that Trump is “not even opposing himself to a particular policy”.

But Project 2025 never came up during the Mar-a-Lago press conference, and Trump faces no general demand from the press for policy details. Only Harris does.

The liberal blogosphere is having none of this. Jeff Tiedrich imagines what Harris will be asked when she finally does hold a press conference:

let’s imagine that Kamala agreed to hold a presser tomorrow. we all know what would happen: it would devolve into a shit-show. the press would waste everyone’s time — and drop our collective IQ by three points — by asking worthless questions.

“Madam Vice President, Donald Trump says you only recently became Black. what is your response?”

who fucking cares? what fresh insight could possibly be gained by asking these kinds of questions? what’s Kamala going to say, that Donny’s a racist lunatic? we already know this. what would be the point of bringing up the toxic sludge that oozes out of Donny’s rancid anus-mouth?

He predicts further questions of similar heft, all based on Republican talking points that have nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with what voters want to know.

Justin Rosario adds:

I want to be super clear: The press is demanding Harris give them access so they can:

A. Badger her with stupid questions

B. Generate soundbites they can take out of context

C. Try to catch her with gotcha questions

D. Use A-C to undermine her campaign because Donald Trump is imploding at light speed and their precious horse race is threatened.

The only useful suggestion I’ve heard from the mainstream press comes from the WaPo’s Perry Bacon. He begins by invoking the old-time religion of the press’ role in democracy:

Harris is making a mistake. She should be doing interviews and other engagements with journalists, in recognition of their important role in democracy.

But after more-or-less acknowledging that reporters haven’t been playing that role and probably can’t be trusted to do so in the future, he does contribute one good idea: Continue ignoring mainstream political reporters (like Bacon himself), but do interviews with “wonky” journalists who specialize in particular areas, like foreign policy, economics, or the environment.

This makes sense to me. CNN or the Wall Street Journal may be eager to ask Harris inside-baseball questions about polls or her response to ridiculous Trump accusations (like what she’ll do about his mythical “migrant crime wave” or whether she supports abortion-after-birth), but Grist would undoubtedly want to know substantive things about her approach to climate change, while Foreign Policy would be curious about how her approach to Iran or Israel might differ from Biden’s. A reporter who specialized in immigration policy — even one from the NYT or the WaPo — would already know that she was never “Border Czar”, understand the details of the bipartisan border bill Trump had his allies block in Congress, and ask meaningful questions about how to help local governments whose resources are being stretched by the inflow of migrants.

Unlike general press conferences or one-on-ones with the likes of Stephanopoulos, those interviews actually could serve democracy. It might be worth a try.

Where Did Inflation Come From?

Worldwide inflation has been a lingering symptom of the Covid pandemic. Trump and Biden share blame for the US inflation, and reelecting Trump won’t fix it.


Polls show that voters trust Trump more than Biden (and probably Harris) on economic issues, and the main reason for that is the inflation we’ve seen since Biden took office. The Republican platform and Trump’s convention speech both appealed to that issue, claiming that Trump will “end inflation … very quickly”.

A few things get lost in this promise, like:

  • Inflation is already ending, just as the Great Recession had already ended when Trump took office in 2017. So all a reelected President Trump will have to do to “end inflation” is to announce that it’s over. That can happen “very quickly”.
  • The low gas prices Trump’s supporters point to weren’t due to his energy policy. They came from the fact that the economy was shut down for Covid and nobody was driving.
  • Post-Covid inflation has been a worldwide phenomenon. Any explanation that pins the blame on Biden alone is simplistic.
  • Many of Trump’s policy proposals will increase prices, not lower them.

But rather than point fingers about inflation, let’s see if we can tell its story in a way that makes sense.

The roots of the recent inflation stretch back to the Covid pandemic, which reached the US in 2020, the final year of Trump’s term. That seems like a weird claim to make, because in 2020 itself, the threat was deflation. Gas prices, for example, dropped to an average of $1.84 in April, 2020, because the economy was largely shut down. If you had gas to sell, few people were buying. As the economy contracted and more and more people lost their jobs, the economic threat was a Depression-style cascade of bankruptcies: My business is closed, so I can’t pay my suppliers or landlord, so they go bankrupt and can’t pay the people who were counting on them. And so on.

But let’s tell the story from the beginning. Today, after a vaccine and treatments like Paxlovid have been developed, and after the virus itself has evolved into less lethal forms, many of us have repressed our memories of just how terrifying the early months of the Covid crisis were. At the time, the only treatment to speak of was to keep patients’ blood oxygen up in any way possible, and hope that if they didn’t die their immune systems would eventually win out.

In the early places where the infection got loose, such as Italy and New York City, it overwhelmed the health-care system. Sick people languished on cots in hallways, and refrigerator trucks supplemented the morgues. A lack of good data made it hard to determine just how lethal the virus was. Nobody knew how many asymptomatic cases hadn’t been noticed, and the number of Covid deaths might be either higher or lower than death certificates indicated. But the early estimates of lethality were around 3%; about 3% of infected people died. (That later got revised downward to 1.4%.)

So governments faced a lose/lose choice: If the virus were allowed to run wild, probably everyone would get it eventually, so about 3% of the population would die. In the US, that would mean over 10 million people. (The 1.4% rate implies around 5 million American deaths.) The alternative was to shut down non-essential activities where crowds of people might gather and spread the infection: sports events, political rallies, churches, concerts, and so on. Additionally, bars and restaurants, schools, movie theaters, factories, and offices were likely to spread the virus. When social interactions were unavoidable, governments could encourage masking and social distancing.

The point of all this wasn’t to defeat the virus, but to slow it down. The hope was that a slower-spreading virus wouldn’t overwhelm the healthcare system (“flatten the curve”, we were told), and that extra time might allow discovery of better treatments or a vaccine. That more-or-less worked out: In the US, “only” 1.2 million died, rather than 5-10 million. (If we had handled the virus as well as Canada, perhaps fewer than half a million Americans would have died.)

But there was a cost. The unemployment rate went over 14%, and that was an undercount. Millions of other Americans continued to receive a paycheck, but weren’t really working. (A government loan program allowed small-business loans to be forgiven if a business maintained its payroll.) What was going to happen to those unemployed through no fault of their own? What good did it do to keep them from getting sick if they were going to lose their homes and starve?

Again, a lose/lose choice: In order to avoid mass poverty, cascading bankruptcies, and economic destruction that might take years to recover from, governments propped up people’s incomes. In the US, I already mentioned the loan program. Unemployment benefits were repeatedly extended beyond their ordinary expiration dates. State and local governments got federal money that allowed them not to fire their employees. Landlords weren’t allowed to evict non-paying tenants. Occasionally, the government would just send everyone a check, whether they were covered by some income-protection program or not. Other countries took similar steps.

Because tax revenues were collapsing at the same time that governments were taking on these additional expenses, deficits skyrocketed. The largest US federal budget deficit ever came in FY2020 (October 2019 through September 2020), the last year of the Trump administration: $3.13 trillion. The next year (1/3 Trump, 2/3 Biden) was nearly as bad: $2.78 trillion.

What that money was doing was even more inflationary than the deficit itself: People were being paid not to produce anything. So: more money, but fewer goods and services to spend it on. This was inevitably going to increase prices.

But inflation didn’t hit right away, because people confined to their homes didn’t spend much. There was no point buying a new car, for example, when your current car was sitting unused in the garage. The cruise lines and theme parks were shut down, and no one wanted to risk spending hours sitting elbow-to-elbow in an airliner, so vacation spending collapsed. You had to keep buying food, but beyond that, the richer half of households worked from home, cashed their government checks, and let their money sit in the bank.

But when the economy opened up again, all that money was bound to come out and drive prices upward. In addition, not everything restarted at the same rate, so the economy developed bottlenecks that increased prices further. The Ukraine War disrupted the world’s grain and oil markets, adding additional inflationary pressure.

Post-Covid inflation was a worldwide phenomenon that peaked in 2022, when US inflation was 8%. Bad as that was, things were even worse in comparable economies like the UK (9.1%) and European Union (8.8%), while some smaller countries saw catastrophic levels, like Turkey at 72.3% and Argentina at 72.4%.

The final lose/lose choice was how fast to restart the economy. Unemployment was still over 6% when Joe Biden became president, and he had learned a hard lesson from the aftermath of the Great Recession. The stimulus spending President Obama had managed to secure during the two years when he had congressional majorities wasn’t sufficient, and after 2010 he battled Republican leaders in Congress for every penny. The result was an economic recovery so slow that many Americans barely noticed it. Not until 2016 did economic indicators return to the normal range. They continued upward from there, allowing Trump to take credit for “the greatest economy ever” when the trends Obama established continued into his term. (Look at the GDP and unemployment graphs below and see if you can pick out when the “Trump boom” started.)

Given Obama’s experience, Biden opted for a faster restart. To his credit, he invested the stimulus money wisely: building infrastructure and laying the groundwork for a post-fossil-fuel economy.

But the main thing he bought with that spending was job creation. By early 2022, the unemployment rate was back at pre-Covid (“greatest economy ever”) lows, and went slightly lower still. But Biden’s stimulus exacerbated the inflation that was already due to arrive.

The Federal Reserve responded to that inflation by increasing interest rates, which has brought its own hardships. The US economy has been surprisingly resilient under those interest rates, but it remains to be seen whether inflation can be beaten without starting a recession. (As I write, data from a slowing economy is sending the stock market plunging.)

So the impact of the Covid pandemic continues to be felt.

Conclusions. Nostalgia for the pre-Covid 2019 economy is understandable, but thinking of it as “the Trump economy” is a seductive illusion. Trump’s main economic achievement was that he didn’t screw up the recovery that began under Obama.

When Covid hit, the effect was going to be felt somewhere: as millions of deaths, as depression, or as inflation. Trump and Biden made similar policy choices, taking on massive deficits to lessen deaths and avoid depression. The bill for those choices was inflation, which in many ways was the lesser evil. Even in retrospect, I can’t wish the US government had taken a different path.

That bill came due under Biden, but the responsibility for it falls on Trump and Biden alike. That’s not because either of them performed badly, but because the pandemic’s toll had to be paid somehow. Governments got to choose the form of payment (and most made similar choices), but not paying wasn’t an option.

Trump’s primary talent is salesmanship, so he excels at taking credit for anything good that happens and avoiding blame for anything bad. His 2024 campaign has done an impressive job of selling 2019 as the typical “Trump economy”; if things got drastically worse in 2020, that wasn’t his fault. So if we just reelect him, he often implies, it will be as if Covid never happened. 2019 will magically return.

It won’t. Presidents do not wave magic wands, or move economies with their personal charisma. Presidents affect economies through their policies of taxing, spending, and regulation. So far, the policies Trump has put forward are vague and his numbers don’t add up. (The Republican platform promises to cut taxes, increase defense spending, rebuild our cities, maintain Social Security and Medicare at current levels, and yet reduce deficits by cutting “wasteful spending” that it never identifies. We’ve heard such promises before, and they never work out.) Some of his proposals, like a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports or deporting millions of low-wage workers, would increase inflation, not decrease it.

Whoever we elect in November, I can promise you one thing: 2025 will be its own year. It won’t be 2019 again.

The Unfathomable Mystery of Biracial Americans

Thanks, Donald. Without your help, I never would have found a truly endearing Kamala video.


It all started with Donald Trump saying something that made even less sense than he usually does. Wednesday in Chicago, during his half-hour interview at a convention of the National Association of Black Journalists, he called attention to the great conundrum of Kamala Harris’ biracial identity.

She was always of Indian heritage, and she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago, when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black. So I don’t know, is she Indian or is she Black?

The first thing to note about this comment, which I’ll forget if I don’t mention it right away, is that it’s a lie. Not just that Harris has been open about her blackness all along, but that Trump himself knew.

Trump donated to Harris twice in 2011 and 2014, during her campaign for attorney general of California, around the time she was being touted as “the female Obama” precisely because she is Black. In 2020, a Trump campaign spokesperson pointed to those donations as proof that Trump was not racist, saying, “I’ll note that Kamala Harris is a Black woman and he donated to her campaign, so I hope we can squash this racism argument now.”

Now on to the “Is she Indian or is she Black?” part. I plan to say some serious things in this article, but I won’t be able to get through it without mixing in some humor, because I just can’t pretend that I’m taking this question seriously. I mean, we’re not talking about the wave/particle duality of light here. Harris was born in Oakland to a mother from India and a Black Jamaican father. That really shouldn’t be hard to understand, even if you’re a 78-year-old ex-president whose Secretary of State once called him “a fucking moron” and whose top economic adviser judged him to be “dumb as shit“. According to the 2020 census, multiracial people make up over 1/10th of the US population, so you might expect Trump to have met such a person at some time or another.

Knowing that Harris likes to use Venn diagrams, The F*cking News made one to help her explain the situation.

And Trump’s notion that Kamala at some point “turned Black” evoked memories of a 2016 SNL cold open..

But enough levity: What is going on here?

Unfortunately, I can’t start discussing that question without getting into the ways Trump has dug himself in deeper. I mean, we all say really, really dumb things from time to time, especially under pressure. But after the fact, most of us try to compensate in one of two ways: We either apologize, or we just shut up and hope everybody forgets about it. (That’s the great virtue of the current era: No matter how badly you embarrass yourself, the 24-hour news cycle rolls on, and your blunders will soon scroll off everybody’s news feeds.)

But not Donald Trump. After having time to listen to advisers and think it through, he has spent the last several days continuing to make some kind of a controversy out of Harris simultaneously identifying both with her mother’s family and her father’s family, like that’s just impossible without some kind of betrayal or duplicity.

Remember Trump’s birther days, when he claimed that the detectives he had sent to Hawaii to investigate Obama’s birth certificate “cannot believe what they’re finding”? (Michael Cohen has since verified what I long suspected: “He never sent anybody anywhere, he just said it and everybody sort of bought into it.”) Well, birtherism is back: On TruthSocial, Trump reposted Laura Loomer’s image of Kamala’s birth certificate, which lists her father as coming from Jamaica, not Africa (which no one ever claimed).

He also posted a photo of Harris with her mother’s Indian family, as if that proved something. See: She’s been claiming all along to be Indian, so she can’t possibly have been Black.

But the crowning piece of Trump’s evidence is a video where Kamala herself says “I am Indian.” It’s a 36-second clip from a longer video of Kamala cooking with another Indian-American woman.

Crazy Kamala is saying she’s Indian, not Black. This is a big deal. Stone cold phony.

But he couldn’t even edit the video well enough to make his point: The two women agree that they both have South Indian roots, and Kamala says, “You look like the entire one-half of my family.” The host is not at all confused about Harris’ family having another half, because why would she be? It’s perfectly simple, as everyone but Trump understands.

But here I got curious: I myself have been experimenting with cooking Indian food lately, so I couldn’t help wondering what they made. It wasn’t hard to find out that the other woman was the actress Mindy Kaling, and from there a little googling led to a 9-minute video on Kamala’s own YouTube channel. It was made in 2019, the first time Kamala ran for president. They’re cooking masala dosa.

You should absolutely watch this; I wish I could get every voter to watch it. It’s most endearing, humanizing view of Kamala Harris I’ve ever seen. (Thank you, Donald, for helping me find it.) It’s two women cooking together, laughing a lot, and bonding over memories of how their mothers cooked. (Both families stored their spices in re-purposed Taster’s Choice Coffee jars.)

If you get charmed by it, watch the follow-up of other Indian-American women’s reactions.

I find it impossible to imagine a comparable Trump video. I know cooking is typically a female bonding thing, so I wouldn’t expect to see Trump cook with anybody. But translate this into male stereotypes any way you want: fishing, outdoor grilling, carpentry, going to the big game. Trump could never make a video like this, because Trump doesn’t bond; he either dominates or submits. He’s either the Big Dog, or the runt who trails after the Big Dog (as Trump did with Putin in Helsinki).

The other thing I can’t imagine is anybody thinking this video disproves the authenticity of Harris’ blackness. Whose character is so narrow that there isn’t room to be different with different people, while still being yourself? (The Emmy-winning TV series “Severance” resonates precisely because it builds on the common experience of being different at work than you are at home.) Being both Indian and Black doesn’t make Harris “a chameleon”, as J. D. Vance charged. It makes her a typical resident of our complex 21st century society. (You’d think J. D. would understand biracial identity, since his own children are both Indian and White. Do you think he’ll make them choose someday?)

Which brings us back to the question: What is Trump doing? He’s lying. He knows he’s lying. He’s saying something incredibly stupid and then doubling down on it. But why?

Some writers warn us not to overthink questions like this. Trump’s niece Mary advises:

After eight years of covering Donald, too many journalists have gotten into the habit of seeing strategy in his crude and instinctive behavior. The truth is quite simple–Donald can’t help himself. When it comes to him, we shouldn’t overthink it. He is exactly what he seems: a racist, a misogynist, a liar.

And Josh Marshall agrees:

[W]e don’t have to fall into this Trump confusion matrix where we’re kind of beguiled by some mysterious, secret, ingenious plan that explains why a bizarre racist outburst that normal people look at and think “What’s wrong with him?” is actually a genius political move. It’s just an outburst and attempted reset. No more, no less.

But at the risk of giving Trump too much credit, let’s start with a simpler question: Why did he accept the NABJ invitation to begin with? Three possibilities present themselves:

  • He wanted to appeal for Black votes. This wouldn’t be unreasonable, given Trump/Biden polls that showed him making inroads with Black men. But if that had been his motive, he would have behaved differently. He’d have fended off aggressive questions without rancor and repeatedly returned to nostalgia for the pre-Covid economy, as if anything in his policy proposals would bring it back. The fact that he was combative from the very first question indicates that he wasn’t there to win Black votes.
  • He wanted to convince White suburban voters that he’s not racist. Overt racism plays badly among educated suburban voters, especially women. That’s why dog whistling was invented: to appeal to White racists without scaring White moderates. That’s also why all Trump’s campaigns have been so diligent about recruiting somebody to stand behind him at rallies with a “Blacks for Trump” sign. It’s not important that Trump have much actual Black support, but he has to appear to have Black support, to placate White moderates. From this point of view, the ideal thing would have been to make no real news at the NABJ convention. Then the story would be the simple fact of Trump’s appearance before a Black audience rather than anything he said. Obviously, that’s not what happened.
  • He wanted to pick fights that will appeal to his White racist base. This interview will produce many clips that will go viral in the White racist echo chamber: Black women try to trap Trump, but he is not intimidated and stands up to them, challenging the suggestion that he is too chicken to debate Harris, and proving that he will stand up for you when the critical race theory goblins come for you.

It seems clear to me that the third option is correct: Trump’s false claim that Harris wasn’t Black until recently, and that before that she only emphasized the Asian half of her heritage, only makes sense if you’re playing to a White racist audience. Black people understand that being only half African is more than enough to get racists to treat you as Black. And choosing to emphasize some other part of your heritage is never an option, because racism isn’t a choice you make, it’s a choice racists make about you. Also, non-racist Whites have no trouble processing the notion of mixed-race, which Trump seems so confused by.

So Trump’s script casts the Black journalists as antagonists in his performance as the Champion of Beleaguered White Men. Once you see that, his subsequent actions only need to make sense in the worldview of racist White men, who often frame race as a scam, a way for non-Whites to claim some kind of sympathy or benefit. The Atlantic’s Adam Serwer spells it out.

Trump’s attack on Harris is meant to evoke this worldview, in which Black advancement is a kind of liberal conspiracy to deprive white people of what is rightfully theirs. Trump is saying that Harris became Black only when it was obvious that being Black conferred social advantage. … Trump’s smear of Harris is also an accusation of racial disloyalty—that she was ashamed of being Black until it was politically convenient. Racial treason is something Trump finds particularly offensive. He has begun referring to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is Jewish, as “Palestinian,” doubly racist in that it turns Palestinian into an epithet and castigates a Jewish man for being insufficiently loyal to his own people. The idea that liberal Jews are not truly Jewish operates similarly to Trump’s attack on Harris, in that it gives the speaker permission to attack a Jewish target in anti-Semitic terms because the target is not “truly” Jewish. Attacking Harris in racist terms, under this logic, is not racist, because she is not “truly” Black. The point of this rhetorical maze is simply to justify racist attacks on a particular target while deflecting accusations of bigotry.

And Noah Berlatsky elaborates:

[A]s a fascist, he believes that only white people—or more specifically, only his own white cishet Christian male voters—are authentic and real. Everyone else, to Trump, is fake and inauthentic. … Trump can say that Jewish people who don’t vote for him, “hate their religion,” because as a white Christian fascist, he defines what Jewishness means. He can say Obama isn’t American, because as a white Christian fascist, he defines what America is. He can say Harris isn’t Black, because he is the fascist leader, and he defines what Blackness is. For that matter, he can lie about crowd size, about the weather, about his own actions and beliefs, because as the white fascist patriarch, he is the one authentic measure of truth. He is real. Nothing else is.

Serwer and Berlatsky were writing before Trump began smearing Algerian boxer Imane Khelif, both on Truth Social and at his Atlanta rally, referring to her as “a good male boxer” who “transitioned”, and pledging “I WILL KEEP MEN OUT OF WOMEN’S SPORTS.” Khelif is female from birth, and gender transitions are illegal in Algeria, but what does it matter? As the fascist leader, Trump defines what gender means.

In short, Trump was trying to stoke up the energy of his base by appealing to their sense of racial and gender grievance, promoting resentment that women and people of color are taking what is rightfully theirs, and arguing that they are doing it under the false flags of anti-racism and anti-sexism, because racism and sexism haven’t been a thing in decades and were never that big a deal to begin with.

The fact that he may have confused or angered anyone else, like me or you, is just a side effect.

I don’t have any special insight into the White racist community, so I’m not sure how well this is working. I can only trust that White racists are not a majority of the electorate, and hope that the rest of us show up in large enough numbers to outvote them.

Couches, cat ladies, and J. D. Vance

Trump’s VP pick has had an inauspicious debut.

Let me say this right up front: In no part of Hillbilly Elegy did J. D. Vance confess to having sex with a couch. In fact, we have no reliable reports of Vance sexually abusing any piece of furniture. Ever. He has not been banned from Ikea. The clip of him singing a love song to a couch is fake; the lip movements don’t even match the audio. If you search on the #CouchHumper hashtag, all you’ll get is misinformation. Are we clear on that?

But somehow this week the mythical Vance/couch tryst became one of the funniest examples in the history of framing. It started on social media, with a tweet providing exact page numbers for the confessional excerpt. If you didn’t happen to have a copy of Hillbilly Elegy handy, how could you check? Surely nobody would just make something like that up, would they? [1]

Largely because of that specific referencing, the rumor began to take off — I even believed it myself at first — to the point that it needed to be debunked. So AP published a fact-check (since removed) which it headlined: “No, JD Vance did not have sex with a couch.”

As any fan of George Lakoff knows, the first law of debunking misinformation is: Don’t put the lie in the headline. The reasoning is simple: Directly negating a frame invokes the frame. In Lakoff’s famous example, “Don’t think of an elephant” invariably makes you think of an elephant. Until this week, the most famous real-life violation of Lakoff’s rule was Richard Nixon’s immortal denial “I’m not a crook.” If you had never before considered whether Nixon might be a crook, you did then.

Well, lots of people who don’t delve deeply into social media, and so hadn’t heard the rumor at all, do read AP headlines. And they immediately thought: J. D. Vance? A couch? What’s up with that? And then, even though they didn’t have time to read the article, they wondered what exactly was wrong about the rumor. Did Vance just flirt with the couch? Did the couch misinterpret his intentions? Maybe he was napping on the couch and had a wet dream. That’s embarrassing, but it’s innocent; it could happen to any young man.

A few people who made the early couch memes may have believed the claim was true, but before long everybody knew it was invented. And yet the jokes just kept rolling in a tone of OK-it’s-false-but-I’m-having-too-much-fun. [2]

I am still looking for a social psychologist who can explain why this has been so enjoyable. But in the meantime I’ll take a stab at it. I think the message here is: “See? We can lie too.”

Democrats are sick to death of Trump and his minions pushing lies that they know are lies, like that the 2020 election was stolen, or Kamala isn’t a citizen, or Democrats support murdering babies after they’re born, or other countries have sent their prison population to the US, and hundreds of others. Mike Johnson is a lawyer, so he has to know that his Harris-will-have-trouble-getting-on-the-ballot claims are bogus, but he makes them anyway.

We’re sick to death of answering stuff like that with facts, only to watch the lie propagate in spite of the facts. So you want to lie? Fine. Our lie is funnier and more viral than yours.

I’ll be interested to see whether people start consciously using it that way, responding to right-wing BS with Vance-and-the-couch claims, and, when challenged, saying, “Oh, I thought you had started a lying contest.”


Another reason we’re all being so merciless with the couch jokes is that other stuff emerged this week: stuff Vance really did say that personally insulted millions of us, and left us feeling like “I dare you to say that to my face, you couch-humper.”

In one, he disparaged women who decide not to have children (like my wife) as

childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too

In another, he proposed that people without children (like me) should have less voting power than parents, because we “don’t have as much of an investment in the future of this country”.

How does it make any sense that we’ve turned our country over to people who don’t really have a direct stake in it?

Wow. What a judgmental, clueless thing to say. J. D. Vance has never met me, but he’s sure that I don’t care about the future, that I couldn’t possibly care like he does, because my only connection to the future is through my sister’s kids and grandkids, the children of my close friends, the kids in my church community, the students I’ve taught, the coworkers I’ve mentored, and my membership in the human race. Kamala Harris is even a stepmother to her husband’s children, but she’s one of the childless cat ladies Vance called out by name. Apparently, step-parenting doesn’t count either.

Another childless person he called out by name was Pete Buttigieg, whose adopted twins are nearly three now. But at the time

Chasten and I had been through a fairly heartbreaking setback in our adoption journey. He couldn’t have known that, but maybe that’s why you shouldn’t be talking about other people’s children. [3]

In an interview Sunday with Jen Psaki, Pete offered a more abstract perspective on Vance’s attitude.

He seems to view everything in terms of the negative. … I think a lot of us who have had kids would certainly say that that experience opens you to a new way of thinking about the world. But he doesn’t talk about it in those terms. He talks about how anybody who doesn’t have kids is less than, that their perspectives have less value, which is a really strange take.

Precisely. If Vance wants to wax poetic about how parenthood has changed him for the better, I’m happy for him. But if he wants to project onto me the benighted mindset he had before becoming a father, or (based on that projection) assign me a correspondingly lesser role in the nation we share, I’ve got a problem with that.

And let’s be clear: Projection is the key concept here. Vance’s attack is actually a confession. He doesn’t care about the future beyond how it affects his own biological descendants. Caring about other people’s kids, or about your community more broadly, is so foreign to him that he can’t even imagine how people like me can do it.

Such a me-and-mine worldview perfectly explains his position on climate change. If he can leave his own children well fixed by selling out to fossil fuel companies, that sounds pretty good to him, even if it condemns everyone else’s kids to an apocalyptic hellscape.

His attempts to clean this up only doubled down.

I’ve got nothing against cats. I’ve got nothing against dogs. … People are focusing so much on the sarcasm and not on the substance of what I said, and the substance of what I said, Megyn, I’m sorry, it’s true.

But he wasn’t being “sarcastic”. He was being an asshole. He has ignorantly insulted me and millions of people like me, and when it was pointed out to him, he wouldn’t apologize. So the insult stands.

Do you want an asshole to be vice president of United States?


But OK, let’s put aside the insults and assholery and look at what Vance was proposing, which is — let’s face it — just a dumb unworkable idea: Children get votes, which their parents get to cast. So if Mom and Dad disagree — it is OK for a woman to disagree with her husband, isn’t it? — which one gets to cast the kids’ votes? If Mom and Dad separate with joint custody, where do the votes go? And think about those stereotypic welfare moms that Republicans love to scapegoat, the ones who keep having kids just to get more welfare. Do they get extra votes? If I’m an undocumented immigrant, but my “anchor baby” is an American citizen, can I cast her vote?

The whole idea is stupid. Clearly Vance just says stuff without thinking it through.


Minnesota Governor Tim Walz burnished his Harris-VP credentials by applying a term that has stuck: weird. If you want to say that Vance’s ideas are scary or stupid, I can’t argue with you. But the main thing they are is weird. Here’s an example of the far-out scenarios that hatch in Vance’s mind, and the kinds of things he justifies with these bizarre fantasies. [4]

Let’s say Roe v Wade is overruled. Ohio bans abortion … let’s say in 2024. And then every day, George Soros sends a 747 to Columbus to load up disproportionately Black women to get them to go have abortions in California. … And if that happens, do you need some federal response to prevent it from happening? … I’m pretty sympathetic to that actually.

Federal response like what exactly? Banning pregnant women from crossing state lines? Making women take pregnancy tests before getting on interstate flights? What? Suppose a pregnant Ohio State student flies home to California for Thanksgiving and miscarries while she’s there. How can she prove she didn’t get an abortion? What happens to her?

I’m sure Vance’s musings would sound perfectly normal in the Republic of Gilead. But not here. In America, they’re weird.


[1] Apparently, people have been making stuff like this up for a long time. In Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail, Hunter S. Thompson told this story about Lyndon Johnson.

The race was close and Johnson was getting worried.  Finally he told his campaign manager to start a massive rumor campaign about his opponent’s life-long habit of enjoying carnal knowledge of his own barnyard sows.

“Christ, we can’t get a way with calling him a pig-fucker,” the campaign manager protested.  “Nobody’s going to believe a thing like that.”

“I know,” Johnson replied.  “But let’s make the sonofabitch deny it.”

[2] Rep. Jack Kimble is often amusing, but he’s not a real congressman. California’s 54th district does not exist.

[3] Pete is being generous. Yes, Vance couldn’t have known at the time that Buttigieg and his husband were having trouble adopting. But he knows now, and hasn’t offered any kind of apology.

I haven’t found any direct statement of Vance’s views on same-sex marriage, or adoptions by same-sex couples, but he opposed the Respect for Marriage Act that would have codified marital rights for same-sex couples, and many of his “pro-family” statements use phrases that are also used by anti-gay hate groups. So it’s possible, even likely, that Vance not only thinks Pete should have second-class citizenship, but that he opposes any attempt by gays and lesbians to qualify for first-class citizenship by getting married and adopting children.

[4] Lots of Republican proposals are justified by similarly bizarre fantasies. We have to ban late-term abortions, for example, because of the possibility that some woman might carry a healthy fetus for nearly nine months, and then choose an abortion at the last minute on a whim. Who does that?

Or we need to ban trans athletes from high school and college sports, because women’s programs could be overrun by men pretending to be women. How many trans athletes do they think are out there? Are they dominating any sport? Is any women’s program in America being overrun by them? Can Republicans name even one trans athlete whose motivation is anything like what they’ve described?

The Two Kinds of Unity

Unity can arise in two very different ways: when a group of equals recognize their common interests and purposes, or through dominance and submission. Guess which kind of unity Trump called for Thursday night.


Shortly after Donald Trump’s ear was barely grazed by a bullet, piece of shrapnel, or whatever it was, he announced that he was rewriting his convention speech to call for Unity.

It is a chance to bring the country together. I was given that chance.

The media dutifully reported this intention, imagining, as they so often do, that Trump was about to mature and become presidential. Friday morning, some headlines around the country echoed Trump’s call for unity, as if he had actually made one. Parker Malloy collected the evidence:

She commented:

The notion of a Trump “pivot” is as old as his political career. Since 2015, the media has repeatedly predicted — and prematurely celebrated — moments when Trump supposedly transformed into a more measured, presidential figure. These predictions have consistently proven to be mirages, disappearing as quickly as they formed.

When the mainstream media realized the speech wasn’t what they had predicted, they started interpreting it as two speeches at war with each other (which at least would explain why it was twice as long as a typical acceptance speech).

The “new” Donald Trump soothed and silenced the nation for 28 minutes last night. Then the old Trump returned and bellowed, barked and bored America for 64 minutes more.

This interpretation is misguided. Trump gave one speech, with a single theme: unity, but not the kind of unity politicians in a democratic republic usually call for.

Pundits misinterpret Trump when they refuse to recognize what he is: a sociopath. As such, Trump has no concept of what we usually mean by national unity: A broad consensus of citizens coming to recognize their common interests and purposes, and using that recognition to put aside their previous conflicts and mutual distrust.

The most obvious examples of unity in our history come after shocking disasters like Pearl Harbor or 9-11. Republicans did not instantly find love in their hearts for FDR, and Democrats similarly did not love W. But they recognized that all Americans faced a common threat and needed to move with a common purpose.

Admittedly, moments like that are rare, and the attempted assassination of Trump didn’t rise to that level. But nonetheless there are common purposes Trump could have invoked and built on.

Hardly anyone likes the level of hostility that currently exists in American politics. We’ve fallen a long way from that moment in the 2008 campaign when John McCain corrected a questioner who said she couldn’t trust Barack Obama because “he’s an Arab”.

“No ma’am,” McCain politely but firmly replied, “He’s a decent family man, a citizen, who I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. And that’s what this campaign is all about.”

We’re also past the moment that same year when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former Speaker Newt Gingrich made an ad together about addressing climate change.

Nonetheless, there is still a lot to build common cause around. A substantial majority of Americans in each party want our children to get educated, and to be able to find productive places in a prosperous economy. We want our basic infrastructure — roads, electrical power, communications, etc. — to work flawlessly. We want clean water and breathable air. We want sick people to get care and old people to live their final years in dignity. We want to be safe from crime. We want to live in peace. We want our country to do well in international competition, and not to fall behind China (or anyone else) either economically or militarily. We want to help our fellow Americans when natural disasters strike. We want to be able to take pride in our country, and to believe that oppressed people around the world see us as a beacon of hope.

We often lose sight of these common intentions, but we shouldn’t. How to accomplish any of these goals leads to serious arguments — like whether the government or the market should take the lead — many of which are hard to resolve. So there would still be plenty of room in our politics for “disagreements on fundamental issues”. But there is a lot to build unity around, if we would choose to do so.

Donald Trump, however, doesn’t live in a world where that kind of unity is possible, or even makes sense. To a sociopath, all relationships are built around dominance and submission. In every interaction, somebody wins and somebody loses. Win/win is just not a thing.

This view runs far deeper than just his politics. The Art of Deal, for example, is about winning every negotiation, not about building mutually beneficial long-term relationships with clients, employees, or suppliers. He often refused to pay small contractors who worked on his casinos and clubs, or he bullied them into taking less than their contracts called for. (They will never deal with him again, but so what? He won.) The background for his recent fraud trial was that banks would no longer offer him competitive rates without special guarantees, which he verified through false documentation.

Or take a look at his cabinet picks from 2017: Mike Pence, Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, Steve Mnuchin, Jeff Sessions, Mike Pompeo, Ryan Zinke, Sonny Perdue, Wilbur Ross, Alexander Acosta, Tom Price, Ben Carson, Elain Chao, Betsy DeVos, Rick Perry, John Kelly, David Schulkin, Nikki Haley, Scott Pruitt, Mick Mulvaney, Robert Lighthizer, Linda McMahon, and Andrew Puzder. Forget about whether any of them will serve again should he be reelected; how many of them are even supporting him now? Why did he even need a new vice president?

Trump doesn’t do mutually beneficial relationships that build trust over time. He uses people until their usefulness is exhausted, then he discards them as “losers” or denies that he ever really knew them.

Similarly, NATO has never made sense to him, because it’s about countries banding together for mutual protection. In his mind, though, if we’re not taking advantage of them, they must be taking advantage of us. Many of the fantasy sir-stories he tells during his rallies are about him expressing dominance and other world leaders submitting. Here’s one in his convention speech:

For years and years when I first came in, they said President Obama tried to get [gang members we wanted to deport] to go back and [other countries] wouldn’t accept them. They’d put planes on the runway so you couldn’t land the plane. They’d close the roads so you couldn’t take the buses; they’d all have to turn back.

As soon as I said no more economic aid of any kind to any country that does that, they called back and they said, “Sir, it would be our great honor to take M.S. 13. We love them very much. We love them very much, sir. We’ll take them back.”

He reinterprets his greatest diplomatic blunder — tearing up the Obama agreement that would have kept Iran from getting nuclear weapons, then utterly failing to get the “better deal” he said was possible — as simply not having enough time for his attempted domination to take effect. (Because of course the country that was willing to lose hundreds of thousands of soldiers in its war with Iraq would crumble under his economic threats.)

I told China and other countries, “If you buy from Iran, we will not let you do any business in this country, and we will put tariffs on every product you do send in of 100 percent or more.” And they said to me, “Well, I think that’s about it.” They weren’t going to buy any oil. And they were ready to make a deal. Iran was going to make a deal with us.

And then we had that horrible, horrible result that we’ll never let happen again. The election result. We’re never going to let that happen again. They used Covid to cheat. We’re never going to let it happen again. And they took off all the sanctions, and they did everything possible for Iran and now Iran is very close to having a nuclear weapon, which would have never happened.

Because to Trump, that’s what relationship is all about: dominance and submission. If you’re not the predator, you’re the prey.

So it should have been immediately obvious what kind of national unity Trump would call for in his convention speech: If you’ve been resisting his dominance, it’s time for you to recognize that you’re beaten and submit.

The opening part of Trump’s speech, the 28 minutes Axios liked, sounded like common-purpose unity, if that’s what you were primed to hear.

I stand before you this evening with a message of confidence, strength and hope. Four months from now, we will have an incredible victory, and we will begin the four greatest years in the history of our country.

Together, we will launch a new era of safety, prosperity and freedom for citizens of every race, religion, color and creed.

The discord and division in our society must be healed. We must heal it quickly. As Americans, we are bound together by a single fate and a shared destiny. We rise together. Or we fall apart.

I am running to be president for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America.

But it is also consistent with the sociopathic unity of dominance and submission, as the second part of the speech made clear. He wasn’t reaching out to the other half of America, he was demanding its surrender.

And we must not criminalize dissent or demonize political disagreement, which is what’s been happening in our country lately, at a level that nobody has ever seen before. In that spirit, the Democrat party should immediately stop weaponizing the justice system and labeling their political opponent as an enemy of democracy. … If Democrats want to unify our country, they should drop these partisan witch hunts, which I’ve been going through for approximately eight years. And they should do that without delay and allow an election to proceed that is worthy of our people. We’re going to win it anyway.

He lamented what has been happening to his sons, who were fellow defendants in the fraud lawsuit that he lost (because a jury of ordinary Americans found that he and his sons committed fraud).

[Eric is] such a good young man. He went through a lot of trouble, and Don, last night, was incredible. They went through so much trouble. They got subpoenaed more than any people probably in the history of the United States. Every week they get another subpoena from the Democrats. Crazy Nancy Pelosi, the whole thing. Just boom, boom, boom.

They’ve got to stop that because they’re destroying our country. We have to work on making America great again, not on beating people. And we won. We beat them in all. We beat them on the impeachments. We beat them on the indictments. We beat them. But the time that you have to spend, the time that you have to spend. If they would devote that genius to helping our country, we’d have a much stronger and better country.

Got that? Everyone has to stop focusing on beating people, but I beat you. You don’t win; I win. So stop trying to make me obey laws or holding me accountable for my crimes. Submit. And then our country can move forward in unity.

If we do that, if we submit to Trump, he offers the vision that he can become powerful enough to dominate others on our behalf.

For too long, our nation has settled for too little. We settled for too little. We’ve given everything to other nations, to other people. You have been told to lower your expectations and to accept less for your families.

I am here tonight with the opposite message: Your expectations are not big enough. They’re not big enough. It is time to start expecting and demanding the best leadership in the world, leadership that is bold, dynamic, relentless and fearless. We can do that.

We are Americans. Ambition is our heritage. Greatness is our birthright.

But as long as our energies are spent fighting each other, our destiny will remain out of reach. And that’s not acceptable. We must instead take that energy and use it to realize our country’s true potential — and write our own thrilling chapter of the American story.

Trump closed by recalling past American glories.

Together, these patriots soldiered on and endured, and they prevailed. Because they had faith in each other, faith in their country, and above all, they had faith in their God.

Just like our ancestors, we must now come together, rise above past differences. Any disagreements have to be put aside, and go forward united as one people, one nation, pledging allegiance to one great, beautiful — I think it’s so beautiful — American flag.

But you will search this text in vain to find any indication that Trump himself is putting aside past differences. He’s still talking about “crazy Nancy Pelosi” and refusing to recognize any positive purpose (like mitigating climate change or trying to limit Covid deaths) that Biden might have been trying to achieve with his policies. And if you don’t share “faith in their God”, well, you just don’t count.

Even Sunday, after Biden withdrew from the race, Trump could not be gracious, and continued to lie about Biden and his record.

Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve – And never was! He only attained the position of President by lies, Fake News, and not leaving his Basement. All those around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t – And now, look what he’s done to our Country, with millions of people coming across our Border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly.

So no, putting aside differences is not for him, it’s on me and on you. We just need to get in line and submit. Only then will America have the kind of unity Trump wants.

There is a word for this kind of unity, but not an English word: gleichschaltung. It’s an old German engineering term, for when you wire a bunch of electrical circuits together under a common master switch. It got applied to German politics in 1933, for reasons that you may recall from history books.

Don’t Ignore the Republican Platform

Trump designed Project 2025 to be deniable. But the Republican platform isn’t deniable, and it’s bad enough.


Recently a lot of attention is being paid to Project 2025, which I warned you about last August. Project 2025 is a massive 900-page plan for the second Trump administration to hit the ground running next January, together with a database of loyal MAGA Republicans to staff it, and a process by which Trump acolytes can declare their fealty in hopes of landing a government job.

In essence, Project 2025 plays two familiar roles: The 900-page doorstop is a very detailed party platform, and the staffing database resembles what a presidential transition team might do — enlarged by Trump’s plan to “demolish the Deep State” by circumventing civil service requirements and appointing over 50K people, rather than the usual 4K or so.

What’s different about Project 2025 is that (by farming the effort out to a consortium of conservative groups headed by The Heritage Foundation), Trump has made the whole effort deniable. So if something in the 900 pages terrifies you, like that it will get rid of all the people in the Justice Department or the Pentagon who thwarted Trump’s post-2020-defeat coup, or that it reverses all the rules that protect LGBTQ people from discrimination, Trump can tell you not to worry. It’s not his platform or his transition team, it’s those guys.

I know nothing about Project 2025. I have no idea who is behind it. I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal. Anything they do, I wish them luck, but I have nothing to do with them.

Meanwhile, if you’re a MAGA cultist and you love the stuff in the 900 pages, Trump gives you a wink and a nod: Sure, that’s what we’re going to do, but I can’t say that just now.

In other words, Project 2025 is designed to be the mother of all dog whistles. Undecided voters are supposed to hear one thing, while MAGA cultists hear something else. If Trump has one superpower, it’s his ability to get people to believe that he’s telling them the truth and lying to the other guy.

Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts understands how the game is played:

No hard feelings from any of us at Project 2025 about the statement, because we understand Trump is the standard-bearer and he’s making a political and tactical decision here.

I’m not going to do an elaborate debunking of Trump’s Sargeant-Schultz-like I-know-nothing claim, because other people have done that. Suffice it to say that Trump knows a lot about Project 2025, he knows the people behind it, he has everything to do with them, and he agrees with what they’re saying, especially the parts that are ridiculous and abysmal.

But OK, Trump has his superpower and we’re being naive if we ignore it. Lots of people are going to believe his denials and accuse us of being afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome if we are skeptical. So let’s leave the details of Project 2025 for another day and consider the Trump plans that aren’t deniable: the draft platform for the Republican Party, whose national convention is meeting in Milwaukee at this very moment. I don’t think even Trump could get away with saying that he knows nothing about the Republican Party or who’s behind it, so let’s examine what’s in the party platform.

The platform is a 16-page document with a three-page preamble, ten pages of elaboration, and three pages of filler. The introduction culminates in “twenty promises that we will accomplish very quickly when we win the White House and Republican Majorities in the House and Senate”. The promises are in all-caps, as if they were Trump posts on Truth Social. Most of them probably were at some point.

Inflation. A number of the promises are deceptively simple, like #3 “End inflation and make America affordable again.” (I’ll spare you the all-caps.) I’m sure that when Democrats read this they immediately slapped their foreheads and said, “Why didn’t we think of that? We’ve been wondering what we should do about inflation. Why didn’t it occur to us to end it?”

So OK, how do Republicans plan to end inflation? That’s Chapter 1 of the elaboration.

We commit to unleashing American Energy, reining in wasteful spending, cutting excessive Regulations, securing our Borders, and restoring Peace through Strength. Together, we will restore Prosperity, ensure Economic Security, and build a brighter future for American Workers and their families. Our dedication to these Policies will make America stronger, more resilient, and more prosperous than ever before.

Most of this in code.

  • unleashing American Energy means (as the preamble says) “drill, baby, drill”. It’s not about unleashing American wind energy or solar energy. It means producing as much fossil fuel as we possibly can and ignoring what that means for climate change.
  • reining in wasteful spending is the same sleight-of-hand we’ve been seeing in Republican proposals since Reagan. It’s a fudge factor that makes their budget numbers work. In #14, they promise to “protect Social Security and Medicare with no cuts”. #12 will “strengthen and modernize our military, making it, without question, the strongest and most powerful in the world”. #2 envisions “the largest deportation operation in American history”, which sounds like it might be expensive to pull off. Ditto for #8, which will “build a great Iron Dome missile defense shield over our entire country” and #11 “rebuild out cities”. No specific examples of “wasteful spending” are given, and it’s hard to imagine cuts that could make up for all this increased spending. Spending rose in every budget of the first Trump administration (going from Obama’s last budget of just under $4 trillion to Trump’s last of $7.2 trillion), and would likely continue rising in a second. The platform also promises tax cuts (#6), so deficits should go up substantially, assuming Republicans haven’t ended arithmetic too.
  • cutting excessive regulations means two things: In general, abandoning efforts to protect Americans from whatever rapacious corporations may decide to do, and more specifically, eliminating rules aimed at fighting climate change by cutting fossil fuel use.
  • securing our borders appeals to the misperception (widespread among the MAGA base) that undocumented immigrants cost our government much more than they actually do. Trump’s plans to secure the border are an expense, not a savings.
  • restoring Peace through Strength means letting Russia take Ukraine, ending the “wasteful spending” of supporting Ukrainian sovereignty.

And then there’s stuff that would drastically increase prices, like tariffs.

Republicans will support baseline Tariffs on Foreign- made goods, pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, and respond to unfair Trading practices. As Tariffs on Foreign Producers go up, Taxes on American Workers, Families, and Businesses can come down.

Trump has long pushed the bizarre idea that foreigners pay our tariffs. In fact, importers pay tariffs, which they pass on to their customers as higher prices. Do you buy anything made in another country? It’s price will go up 10%. To the extent that the government relies on tariffs rather than income taxes, the tax burden shifts from rich people to ordinary consumers.

How will this plan end inflation? It won’t. Gas and cars might be a bit cheaper, at great cost to future generations. Corporate costs might go down, but Americans across-the-board would be less safe from pollution and dangerous products. (And would those lower corporate costs mean lower prices, or just larger profits?) Government spending and deficits would continue to increase, unless Republicans got clever with the “no cuts” promise on Social Security and Medicare. (They might decide that ending cost-of-living increases in Social Security isn’t a “cut”, or that freezing overall Medicare spending isn’t a “cut”, even though it would mean less care and higher costs for individuals. I know I wasn’t going to mention Project 2025, but it wants to raise the retirement age, which wouldn’t “cut benefits” for anybody who still received benefits. But the platform explicitly promises “no changes to the retirement age”, which you should totally believe because Trump is lying to the other guy, not you.)

Climate and the environment. The word “climate” does not appear in the platform, because an underlying principle of the document is that climate change is not a problem and nothing needs to be done about it. But refusing to combat climate change has a strong implied presence in the document.

The glorification of fossil fuels is everywhere.

Under President Trump, the U.S. became the Number One Producer of Oil and Natural Gas in the World — and we will soon be again by lifting restrictions on American Energy Production and terminating the Socialist Green New Deal.

Guess what? The US is still the world’s largest producer under Biden, and the Green New Deal never passed Congress. But carry on.

Republicans will increase Energy Production across the board, streamline permitting, and end market-distorting restrictions on Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal. The Republican Party will once again make America Energy Independent, and then Energy Dominant, lowering Energy prices even below the record lows achieved during President Trump’s first term.

Want to drill for oil in some environmentally sensitive area? No problem! And did I mention that the US is already energy independent, in that we’re a net exporter of oil and gas? And if you remember those low gas prices during the Trump administration, you might also remember that they happened during the Covid lockdown, when nobody was driving. And “market-distorting restrictions” means subsidizing sustainable fuels.

I didn’t mention one of the Republicans’ ideas for lowering housing prices:

open limited portions of Federal Lands to allow for new home construction

Look around your neighborhood and see if you can spot any federal lands you’d like to build on. None? But mining companies have their eyes on lots of federal lands.

Republicans will revive the U.S. Auto Industry by reversing harmful Regulations, canceling Biden’s Electric Vehicle and other Mandates, and preventing the importation of Chinese vehicles.

Those “harmful regulations” are things like CAFE standards to increase gas mileage. And of course Republicans don’t want you driving an EV, which Exxon doesn’t profit from. Cheap Chinese EVs should be a genuine debate, because while importing them would cost American jobs in the auto industry, it would also speed the transition away from fossil fuels. But it isn’t an issue in this campaign, because Biden also wants to keep them out.

Social Security and Medicare. We’ve already talked about how a Republican administration might get around its promises not to cut these programs. But something nobody talks about is how undocumented immigrants prop them up: Many immigrants work under fake SSNs, which means that they pay taxes but will never collect benefits. Legal immigrants tend to be much younger than the general population, so they pay taxes now but won’t collect benefits for many years. So Trump’s deportation plan will harm all our pension funds. But the platform makes it sound like money flows in the opposite direction.

Republicans will protect Medicare’s finances from being financially crushed by the Democrat plan to add tens of millions of new illegal immigrants to the rolls of Medicare.

I have no idea what plan they’re talking about, and I doubt they do either. Another bit of cluelessness is

corrupt politicians have robbed Social Security to fund their pet projects

I blame both parties for this bit of rhetoric, which goes back to Al Gore’s “lockbox” promise. The federal government has been running deficits, and the federal trust funds have been investing their money in government bonds, as many private pension plans do. Unless the US reneges on its debt (something Trump has hinted at from time to time), nobody is “robbing” Social Security.

Culture wars and education. The platform promises to end “political meddling” in our schools and “restore Parental Rights”, but we can see what this really means by looking at Ron DeSantis’ Florida. Florida education is full political meddling, including a law listing ideas that can’t be taught in Florida schools. And “Parental Rights” means rights for conservative Christian parents, which come at the expense of the rest of us.

So if you want your child to learn real American history rather than rah-rah propaganda, you don’t have that right. If you want a library stocked with books from a wide range of views, including books that help non-White or LGBTQ kids make sense of what they’re experiencing, tough luck. Moms For Liberty said no, and they have the final word.

The platform also calls for ending tenure for teachers and “allowing various publicly supported Educational models”, which means using public money to support conservative Christian schools.

Republicans will support overhauling standards on school discipline, advocate for immediate suspension of violent students, and support hardening schools to help keep violence away from our places of learning.

“Hardening schools” is a euphemism for making them more like prisons. Republicans refuse to do anything about our gun problem, so instead we’ll turn our schools into armed camps. (And of course no armed teacher or school guard will ever flip out and start killing students.)

Republicans will ensure children are taught fundamentals like Reading, History, Science, and Math, not Leftwing propaganda. We will defund schools that engage in inappropriate political indoctrination of our children using Federal Taxpayer Dollars.

“Leftwing propaganda” and “inappropriate political indoctrination” means recognizing that racism is still a problem in America, or that families take many different forms these days.

Republicans will champion the First Amendment Right to Pray and Read the Bible in school, and stand up to those who violate the Religious Freedoms of American students.

Conservative Christian teachers will be allowed to indoctrinate their students, but non-Christian teachers won’t have similar rights. Teachers who use the Bible to teach critical reasoning skills rather than Christian dogma will find themselves in deep trouble.

We are going to close the Department of Education in Washington, D.C. and send it back to the States, where it belongs, and let the States run our educational system as it should be run.

But of course they’re also going to cut federal spending on “Leftwing propaganda”, no matter what a liberal state might want its kids to learn. States rights are for red states, not blue states.

Our Great Teachers, who are so important to the future wellbeing of our Country, will be cherished and protected by the Republican Party

But we’re also getting rid of tenure.

All sorts of phrases in the platform advocate returning to the Dead White Guys tradition in education: “Western Civilization”, “Classic Liberal Arts Education”, and so on.

Immigration. In several places, the platform frames desperate families arriving at our borders as an “invasion”, which is to be met with force and fortification.

We will complete the Border Wall, shift massive portions of Federal Law Enforcement to Immigration Enforcement, and use advanced technology to monitor and secure the Border. We will use all resources needed to stop the Invasion— including moving thousands of Troops currently stationed overseas to our own Southern Border.

Nonviolent solutions — like funding more immigration courts and judges, so that people who arrive here with legitimate asylum claims under our laws and treaty obligations can have their cases handled promptly and won’t have to wait around here or elsewhere — are not mentioned. That was a big piece of the bipartisan immigration bill Trump had his allies in Congress torpedo a few months ago.

The platform also promotes the myth of “Migrant Crime”, as if crimes by migrants were somehow different or more virulent than crimes by American citizens. They aren’t.

And then there’s “the largest deportation program in American history” and “sending Illegal Aliens back home”. That’s millions of people working millions of jobs. Restaurant workers, crop pickers, teachers, nurses, programmers, and probably people you know whose paperwork you never thought about. Your mom or grandpa might have to go to a nursing home because home health aides will suddenly be in short supply. You or your spouse might have to quit working, because child care will be hard to find.

And how do you do an operation of this size without making its processes automatic and inflexible? Where do the millions of people go? To detention camps while we find countries to accept them? How do we keep those camps from turning into hellholes, staffed by people who get off on having power over helpless human beings?

But that’s one thing the platform doesn’t say.

Just Don’t Do It

I have violent fantasies and probably you do too.
But they need to stay in our heads.

The Trump shooting has led to Joe Biden and all the country’s other responsible leaders saying the things that responsible leaders always say: Violence has no place in our politics, and so on. That’s great; I completely agree.

But one thing needs to be said that I’m not seeing anywhere: I believe that just about everybody, at one time or another, fantasizes about doing violence to someone who symbolizes absolute evil to them. I know I do, and I try not to feel guilty about such fantasies. As long as they stay in our heads, they’re relatively harmless indulgences.

The problem comes when you start to think seriously about bringing those fantasies into reality. Where would I do it? What supplies would I need and where would I get them? Do I need an escape plan, or am I going out in a blaze of glory? Stuff like that.

If you ever find your thoughts drifting in those directions, I want to remind you of something: Violence seldom turns out the way you picture it, and History has a way of rolling right on even after you remove someone who seemed central to it. Killing Caesar didn’t stop the decline of the Roman Republic or delay the onset of Empire. Killing Lincoln didn’t improve the lot of the post-war Confederate states. I doubt killing Trump would stop MAGA either.

This individual or that one may (from some point of view at some point in History) personify the evil of that era. But the individual didn’t create all that evil. He or she simply channeled and focused it. If that individual dies, those forces will just find a new vessel, and History will keep rolling.

Trump didn’t conjure MAGA out of the void the way God created light in Genesis. He pulled together forces of resentment, entitlement, and bigotry that have been rattling around in American history for decades or even centuries. (Ask Rick Perlstein or Rachel Maddow.) They won’t go away just because something happens to Trump.

So if you ever find your violent fantasies starting to run away with you … I get it. I sympathize. Everybody wants to be the hero. Everybody longs to perform that one great feat that saves the World.

But don’t. Just don’t.

It won’t work. History doesn’t offer those kinds of short cuts. If the World is going to be saved, it will have to save itself through some much longer and more complicated process. Try to find a place for yourself in that process. Maybe a humble one, like most of the rest of us have.