Category Archives: Weekly summaries

Each week, a short post that links to the other posts of the week.

Persuasion

No Sift next week. New articles will start appearing again on August 7.

“Stop saying I’m violent or I’ll send people to murder your family” is an unpersuasive argument.

– Amanda Marcotte
Trump threats will only backfire on him — they prove Jack Smith’s entire case

This week’s featured posts are “The Party of False Equivalence” and “The DeSantis-approved version of American racial history“.

This week everybody was talking about a January 6 Trump indictment

Tuesday, Donald Trump announced that he had received a target letter from Jack Smith, warning of a possible indictment by the DC grand jury investigating January 6 and the overall plot to reverse Trump’s 2020 defeat at the polls. The letter gave him the opportunity to tell his side of the story last week, which he decided not to do. (Trump doesn’t actually have a side of the story. His defense relies on delay, getting evidence thrown out, accusing the prosecutors of political bias, and intimidating the legal system with thinly veiled threats of violence.)

If the timing follows the pattern of the Mar-a-Lago case, an indictment should appear this week.

Much discussion ensued about what that indictment might contain, based on the target letter (that was never officially released). I repeat earlier caveats: Indulge in this speculation if you find it engaging, but don’t imagine that you’re making a wise use of your time. We’ll all see the same indictment soon enough.


In a related development, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel charged the state’s 16 fake Trump electors with a number of crimes, including forgery.

Jack Smith is also looking into the fake electors in seven states, but Michigan’s action suggests a sensible division of labor: The states should charge the electors themselves, and federal prosecutors should go after the Trump campaign officials who organized and promoted the plot across multiple states.

After all, trying to steal a state’s electoral votes is fundamentally an offense against that state. Also, the fake electors proceeded somewhat differently in different states, so they shouldn’t all face the same consequences. The Michigan electors created and signed a fraudulent certificate naming themselves as “the duly elected and qualified for President and Vice President of the United States from the State of Michigan” and casting Michigan’s 16 electoral votes for Donald Trump, who lost Michigan by over 150,000 votes.

New Mexico’s fake electors, by contrast, signed a certificate “on the understanding that it might later be determined that we are the duly elected and qualified Electors” — a statement that seems considerably less fraudulent.


Speaking of the Mar-a-Lago case, Judge Cannon set a trial date: May 20.

As we awaited Judge Aileen Cannon’s announcement of a trial schedule for the Mar-a-Lago documents case, the big question was: How biased towards Trump is Cannon going to be? Her previous rulings on the items seized in the Mar-a-Lago search were absurdly pro-Trump, so divorced from law and logic that they earned her a stern rebuke from a three-judge panel at the next level, in spite of two of them being Trump appointees.

Jack Smith’s people had asked for the trial to start in December, a schedule widely recognized as ambitious but not unreasonable. Trump’s lawyers asked the judge not to set a trial date at all, which would violate the law. And they argued that Trump should not be tried until after the election, when he might again be protected by a DoJ policy of not indicting a sitting president, and he could be in a position to fire Smith himself.

Giving Trump what he wanted would be asking for another slap from the appeals court, so May 20 looks like the longest delay she thought she could get away with. Most presidential primaries will be over, and Trump may well have the Republican nomination locked up. From there the date could slip further, so Trump may yet get his wish not to be tried until after the election.

But that may not be as good for Trump as he imagines. If the trial still hasn’t happened when voting starts, the election becomes a referendum on his guilt. “Vote to keep me out of jail” is not a compelling campaign slogan.

and culture wars

I’m always torn about how much play to give culture-war skirmishes. On the one hand, people saying ridiculous or obnoxious things should be called out. They’re telling us who they are, and we should take that seriously. But on the other, a lot of them are intentionally trolling so that they can ride a wave of backlash when liberals like me criticize them. And finally, culture-war issues are often shiny objects that are supposed to distract us from real problems like climate change and racism.

Even so, sometimes I just can’t ignore them.


Exhibit #1 this week was Jason Aldean’s country-music song and video “Try That in a Small Town“, which was all over my social media news feed.

Now, I grew up in a relatively small town. (Quincy, Illinois has about 40K people, making it about 1/5 the size of Macon, Georgia, where Aldean grew up.) I don’t live there any more (and Aldean doesn’t live in Macon), but I still go back regularly, a decade after my parents died. So I see the charm of small-town life, recognize the importance of respecting your roots, and understand the sting of big-city people dismissing “fly-over country” as “the middle of nowhere”.

That sting is why small-town and rural people occasionally need to cut loose with a shout of pride in who they are and where they come from, in anthems like John Mellencamp’s “Small Town“, John Denver’s “Thank God I’m a Country Boy“, and others even older. Those songs are full of positive emotions like affection, contentment, and gratitude. Fundamentally, they are what therapists refer to as I-statements: “This is what life is like for me. You may not want to live this way, but I love it.”

Aldean’s song, by contrast, is addressed to “you”, the kind of urbanite he has violent fantasies about. He’s daring you to “cross that line”, because small towns are “Full of good ol’ boys, raised up right”, so “If you’re looking for a fight, try that in a small town”.

He underscores the point by centering the video on a Tennessee courthouse that was the site of a famous lynching. And I was particularly amused by one behavior he recommends you leave in the city: “pull a gun on the owner of a liquor store” — like that never happened where I grew up. (In the real world, robbing a liquor store is the quintessential redneck crime. Grab me a six-pack on your way out the door.)

Several people on social media mentioned Ahmaud Arbery, a Black man who tried jogging in a small town, and was murdered by gun-toting racists. Sadly, his killers can’t go to an Aldean concert because they’re in prison now. Whenever this song comes up on the radio, though, I’m sure they sing along.

But you know who really ought to be upset? People who live in small towns, but somehow aren’t filled with hate and possessed by violent fantasies. (I know lots of them.) Aldean has very effectively validated all the stereotypes the rest of the country holds against them. Thanks, Jason.


And then there’s the over-the-top conservative outrage against the Barbie movie, which I haven’t seen. OK, I just wrote about a conservative music video, but at least I didn’t post a 45-minute rant and then set fire to a doll like Ben Shapiro did.

One theme of Barbie for decades has been that girls can do anything (and look fabulous). So I can’t figure why anybody would be surprised that a Barbie movie is “woke”. (I’m reminded of the people who keep asking “When did Star Trek get so woke?” Star Trek was always woke.)

I also shake my head at the people who are outraged that one of the Barbies is played by a trans woman. Seriously: You think that kids who were called “boys” but believed they were girls didn’t didn’t play with Barbies? That piece of the fan base must go back to the beginning.

and you also might be interested in …

Today, Netanyahu’s coalition in the Knesset passed his bill to limit the power of the nation’s supreme court. The bill had been the target of massive protests for months, with critics claiming that Israel would no longer be a democracy if it passed. I guess we’ll find out how accurate that assessment was.


One of the few good decisions the Supreme Court made this year was to uphold a lower-court injunction against Alabama’s congressional-district map. The map’s problem was that only 1 of the 7 districts were majority-Black, when Blacks make up 1/4th of the state’s population. The Court ruled that this was very likely a violation of the Voting Rights Act, and so could not be used for the 2024 congressional elections.

Everyone assumed the Alabama legislature would go back to the drawing board and come up with a map that had two majority-Black districts. But apparently not: The two houses of the legislature have each proposed new maps that again have only one majority-Black district. They need to finalize their decision by Friday.

Ian Milhiser makes a tongue-in-cheek reference to the days before John Roberts gutted VRA enforcement:

One novel idea that someone should try is that we could make states with a history of enacting racist voting laws, often in defiance of federal court orders, to “pre clear” their election laws with officials in Washington, DC.


Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had allowed Ukraine to export food. Prewar Ukraine was the source of 10% of the world’s wheat exports and half of its sunflower oil. Instead, Russia has begun bombing infrastructure in Odesa, Ukraine’s main grain-shipping port. Food prices around the world are expected to rise.


Anti-abortion activists often deny that they want to criminalize women, but that’s what’s happening. In Nebraska, a teen-aged woman was sentenced to 90 days in jail and two years probation. Her crime: She took miscarriage-inducing pills past the 20-week mark of her pregnancy, miscarried, and then disposed of the dead fetus’ body without notifying authorities. She was 17 at the time. The sentence follows her guilty plea for “concealing or abandoning a dead body”, a felony. Her mother, who acquired the pills, is awaiting sentencing.


When voters in the UK voted “Leave” in the 2016 Brexit referendum, many people foresaw a trend in which political ties of all sorts would begin to dissolve. But instead, the struggles of the post-Brexit UK have become a cautionary tale.


The NYT reports on a study that quantifies the carbon footprint of eating meat, especially beef. The subheadline says:

Researchers examined the diets of 55,500 people and found that vegans are responsible for 75 percent fewer greenhouse gases than meat-eaters.

Actually, I don’t like that way of framing the result, because it emphasizes the extremes. Even if you aren’t willing to go all the way to a vegan diet, cutting down the amount of meat you eat or shifting from beef to poultry and fish could still make a large difference. The body of the article is clear about that, but the headline lends itself to an all-or-nothing view.

and let’s close with something derivative

I love music video parodies and I love countdowns, so of course I love watchmojo.com’s countdown of their 20 favorite music-video parodies.

Surrounded

It is not the fault of the FBI that Donald Trump surrounded himself with criminals.

Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA)

This week’s featured posts are “This summer’s weather is a turning point” and “DoJ, the FBI, and the Biden-crime-family conspiracy theory“.

This week everybody was talking about the weather

That’s the subject of one featured post. Short version: When climate-related disasters happen one at a time, they’re easy to deny: “We’ve always had floods” or heat waves or hurricanes or whatever. But when several apocalyptic weather events are happening at the same time, it feels qualitatively different. Those of us who care about the future need to jump on this moment. The debate over the existence and seriousness of climate change needs to be over.

and politicizing the NDAA

In 1948, the Senate paved the way for Democratic President Truman to negotiate the treaty that formed NATO by passing the Vandenberg Resolution, named for the Republican Senator who chaired the Foreign Relations Committee, Arthur Vandenberg. At that time, Vandenberg said something that has been quoted many times since: “Politics stops at the water’s edge.”

In other words: Republicans and Democrats might have their partisan struggles, but when it came to defending the country, all that would be put aside. That sentiment has always been more of an aspiration than a hard-and-fast principle, but it was never blatantly rejected until this week, when House Republicans loaded up the annual National Defense Authorization Act (which has to pass if our troops are going to be funded in FY2024, which starts in October) with a long list of culture-war provisions that Democrats in the Senate are bound to reject.

Rep Jeff Jackson (D-NC) explains how this process is supposed to work, and how it actually worked this year within the Armed Services Committee: There’s a behind-the-scenes negotiation to draft a bill that can get broad bipartisan support, and then on the final day the committee has to vote on hundreds of proposed amendments.

On this day, the chair of the committee has a very specific job: It’s to say no to his own party.

Why? Because he knows that some of the amendments his party is proposing are absolute deal-breakers for the minority party and he wants a big bipartisan vote out of committee to give the bill the best chance when it reaches the whole House.

Honestly, he did a pretty good job of knocking away the real grenades that would have blown up the whole thing. He definitely knew what he was doing. He let in just enough of the culture war stuff to satisfy his party without going that step too far that could have sunk it.

So Jackson, a Democrat, praised Chairman Mike Rogers, a Republican, for putting national defense above scoring political points. And while that bill would ban the Pentagon from funding drag shows, along with a few other culture-war provisions of little practical significance, it got out of the committee on a 58-1 vote.

Unfortunately, the bill then went to the House floor, where Speaker McCarthy could not stand up to his party’s radicals. Several amendments passed on party-line votes, turning the NDAA into a culture-war messaging vehicle that will make it much harder for servicewomen (or spouses of people in the armed forces) to get abortions, will eliminate the Pentagon’s office of diversity, equity and inclusion, and end coverage for transgender health care. As a result, the NDAA itself became a near-party-line vote, passing the House 219-210.

Now the Senate will undoubtedly pass a very different bill, setting up a showdown closer to the new-fiscal-year deadline of October 1. In that debate, the defense of the country and its global interests will take a back seat to domestic politics.


Another example of Republicans prioritizing culture wars over national defense is Senator Tuberville’s one-man blockade on military promotions. Ordinarily, promotions pass the Senate en masse by unanimous consent, a process that avoids highly time-consuming votes on individual officers. But Tuberville’s objection makes that impossible, and the result is that the Marine Corps has only an “acting” commandant. Soon several of the Joint Chiefs will need to be replaced as well.

As with the House NDAA vote above, his issue is abortion.

and conspiracy theories about DoJ and the FBI

That’s the topic of another featured post.

A related story that I didn’t mention there: The saga of Gal Luft, who was supposed to be the House Oversight Committee’s star witness against the Bidens. But he went “missing” before he could testify. And then it turned out that he was on the run from an indictment filed in November, before the GOP had even won control of the House, much less touted Luft for a starring role in their hearings.

He faces eight separate counts, including two charges of making false statements to federal officials, one for conspiracy to violate the Foreign Agents Registration Act, and five counts relating to separate schemes which allegedly involved Luft trying to trade in sanctioned Iranian oil and broker deals for a Chinese firm to supply, among other things, “strike UAVs” to Kenya and anti-tank missile launchers to Libya.

He’s been found and is currently under arrest.

and the Hollywood strike

Most of us aren’t used to thinking of actors or TV/movie writers as workers. We imagine them living lives we can only dream of. And for some of them — though far from the majority — that’s true.

So when the Writers’ Guild of America went on strike May 2, and the Screen Actors’ Guild followed on Wednesday, most of the world’s truck drivers, waitresses, and assembly-line workers probably didn’t feel much instinctive solidarity.

However, there’s a lot to sympathize with here. The issue is a new technology (artificial intelligence) that has the potential to make entire professions obsolete. And the question is: Who’s going to profit from that technology? The dispute parallels issues that played out during the Industrial Revolution centuries ago. Things came out badly for skilled workers then, and it would be a shame if those mistakes got repeated.

One of the myths I was taught about industrialization is that it mechanized repetitive low-skill jobs and created more high-skill jobs. The economist Harry Braverman exploded that myth in his 1974 classic Labor and Monopoly Capital: the degradation of work in the 20th century. In Braverman’s retelling, it was precisely skilled labor that got replaced: weavers, bakers, blacksmiths, cobblers, and craftsmen of all sorts. Their specialized knowledge got designed into machines whose repetitive operations could be overseen by comparatively unskilled workers.

Most of the craftworkers got nothing for their knowledge. A few skilled workers would be observed closely by engineers. When the skills it had taken them years to master had been captured in a machine, they were no longer necessary — and neither were any of their guildsmen. The resulting profits went to the industrialists who owned the machines.

Artificial intelligence could soon do something similar to writers and actors. AI could digest, say, all the romantic comedy scripts ever written (with no payment to their authors), and then be able to fulfill requests like “Write me a rom-com set in Singapore with a rich woman fresh from a messy divorce and an airline pilot.” Another AI might take body-scans of a few real people (maybe they’d be paid for a single day of “labor”) and create a movie in which those “actors” perform the rom-com script.

The possible profits are immense, and they would all go to the companies that own the AIs.

At the press conference announcing the strike, National Executive Director and Chief Negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland said that the [American Motion Picture and Television Producers]’s proposal for AI “proposed that our background actors should be able to be scanned, get paid for one day’s pay, and their company should own that scan, their image, their likeness and to be able to use it for the rest of eternity in any project they want with no consent and no compensation.”

People trying to break into the creative professions are often desperate and correspondingly ripe for exploitation. One famous example is the comic-book duo of Jerry Siegel and Joe Schuster, who sold the rights to their new Superman character for $130 in 1938.

and Trump’s next indictments

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis swore in two new grand juries this week. Georgia grand juries serve for two months. Many of her previous statements indicate that this is the cycle when she will seek to indict Trump for his efforts to interfere in Georgia’s 2020 election.

Jack Smith is investigating many of the same crimes — the fake elector scheme, pressuring election officials (all the way up to VP Mike Pence) to change or throw out the election results — in Georgia as well as other states Trump lost, in addition to his role in inciting the January 6 insurrection. Lots of former federal prosecutors have been speculating that Smith will want to get his own indictment out ahead of Willis.

So we’re on indictment watch again: The Georgia indictment is expected early next month, and Smith could file any day.

In some sense, this would be the “real” indictment. Trump’s constant law-breaking has created a public expectation that ordinary laws don’t apply to him, so the filing-false-business-records charges in New York and the federal stealing-classified-documents charges feel illegitimate even to some people who aren’t part of his personality cult. Those are real laws frequently used against other people, and he’s clearly guilty in both cases. Even in my eyes, though, those charges resemble nailing Al Capone for tax evasion rather than the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre.

But if I had to pick one reason why I want to see Trump in jail rather than back in the White House, it’s that he tried to stay in power after he lost the 2020 election. That’s the greatest breach of faith committed by any president in American history, and it’s the crime he deserves to be judged on.

If you’re wondering what such an indictment might look like, Just Security has a written a “pros memo” based on the evidence that is publicly available. Such memos are typically written by the DoJ (and kept confidential) prior to writing an indictment that will be available to the public. The full document is over 250 pages, but the introduction and executive summary together are just six.


Trump’s lawyers filed for an indefinite delay in the Mar-a-Lago documents case, at least until after the 2024 election. Their filing argues that

there is simply no question any trial of this action during the pendency of a presidential election will impact both the outcome of that election and, importantly, the ability of the Defendants to obtain a fair trial.

Like Andrew Weissmann, I read this as a confession of guilt.

If you are innocent and want to be vindicated, you ask for a trial before the election. If you are guilty and want to run on victimization, without being undermined by facts and law, you don’t.

Judge Aileen Cannon is supposed to hear arguments on the trial schedule tomorrow, and should set a trial date (or not) soon. That ruling will tell us a lot about how lenient she intends to be with Trump, who appointed her.


Another confession of guilt, in my view, is the lawsuit Trump filed asking the Georgia Supreme Court to quash the report of the special grand jury that investigated his attempt to steal Georgia’s electoral votes in 2020. If he’s indicted and a trial jury looks at the evidence against him, he’s toast. So he has to get the evidence thrown out.

An innocent candidate would be demanding that all the evidence come out so that he could clear his name as quickly as possible. But all along, Trump’s strategy has been to delay, block witnesses from testifying, and claim that there’s nothing to see here.

and you also might be interested in …

An appellate-court panel has temporarily set aside the crazy injunction a Trump-appointed judge made last week — the one that barred large chunks of the Biden administration from discussing disinformation with social media companies. The order is short and doesn’t explain the panel’s reasoning, but promises an “expedited” hearing for oral arguments.


The Netanyahu government has revived its plan to reduce the independence of the judicial branch, and so protests are starting up again. What could possibly go wrong with a plan to give more power over the courts to a leader facing indictment?


Turkey has dropped its opposition to Sweden joining NATO, so that might happen soon. The other prospective new member, Finland, officially joined in April.

And that makes me shake my head at this poll result:

52 percent of MAGA-identifying Republicans believe Russia’s Vladimir Putin is a better president than Joe Biden. 

Because Putin is doing such a great job of achieving his goals, I suppose.


A Texas judge is arguing that the Supreme Court’s recent ruling in the 303 Creative case should mean that she doesn’t have to marry same-sex couples.


If I asked you to think of some horrible example of gun violence, probably you’d name a school shooting: Uvalde, Sandy Hook — something like that.

But a report in Thursday’s IndyStar calls attention to another kind of shooting that is horrible in a different way: family annihilations, where some guy (men do 94% of family annihilations) wipes out his whole family, usually with a gun, and often (64%) finishes by committing suicide.

There are way more of these than I had ever imagined: 227 in the US since 2020. Texas has the most,

But it’s happening across the U.S., and the number is going up by the year. There were 62 cases in 2020, 61 in 2021, and 72 in 2022. There already were at least 32 in 2023 through the end of April, a pace that could lead to nearly 100 incidents this year. …

The U.S. has three times more family annihilations than Canada, eight times more than Great Britain and 15 times more than Australia, according to The National Institute of Justice. …

A USA TODAY investigation found American children are three times more likely to be shot at home than at school — and the majority of perpetrators are their parents or guardians.

The IndyStar article shifts back and forth between a general description of the problem and an in-depth account of a specific case: 61-year-old Jeffrey Mumper of Bloomington, Indiana killed his wife and two children (pictured below), before killing himself in September, 2020.


If you’re considering supporting RFK Jr. for president, you should watch this video, where he seriously discusses the possibility that the Covid virus was “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people” while “the people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and the Chinese”.

After that clip went viral and accusations of antisemitism poured in, Kennedy tweeted a clarification, which also turned out to be bogus.

Kennedy perfectly illustrates a quote I have never been able to track to its source, but I’m sure I didn’t think of it myself: “Anybody who believes crazy things will eventually believe crazy things about Jews.”


In Friday’s NYT, a federal district judge wonders what ever happened to the Supreme Court’s sense of smell. He recounts the kinds of ethical issues that have popped up in his own career: a lawyer has Red Sox tickets he’s not going to use, a man he had awarded disability benefits comes to his office to give him a hand-carved pencil box in gratitude. Neither offer, he believed, was being made with bad intentions. But he turned them down, because

You don’t just stay inside the lines; you stay well inside the lines. This is not a matter of politics or judicial philosophy. It is ethics in the trenches.

He is disturbed that Supreme Court justices seem not to understand this. You turn gifts and favors down not because you can’t find a loophole in the law big enough to squeeze them through, but because they smell bad, and they undermine public faith in the fairness of the judiciary.


While we’re on the topic: Justice Sotomayor’s taxpayer-funded staff helping promote her books also smells bad. I don’t think this is on the same scale as Clarence Thomas’ corruption, but that doesn’t mean I have to defend it. The Supreme Court needs an enforceable ethics code that applies to everybody. That idea ought to have bipartisan support. But sadly, it doesn’t.


George Lakoff (the guy who popularized the notion of “framing” back in the 1990s) gives advice on responding to trolls on social media: Don’t do it. Do this instead.

If you don’t wish to amplify trolls, don’t respond to their posts. Instead, try posting your own proactive message. If you see a post spreading false information about vaccines, you could do your own post that says: “I’ve noticed posts containing false information about vaccine safety. I won’t take the bait by responding, but here are the facts…” Then deliver whatever message you were planning to write as a response to the troll, even if it’s just a link to a news story debunking whatever the troll is saying.


This is how far gone the Right is these days. At the Turning Point USA conference in Florida yesterday, MTG “attacked” President Biden with a long comparison to transformational presidents LBJ (who got Medicare and Medicaid passed) and FDR (Social Security), concluding with this:

LBJ had the Great Society, but Joe Biden had Build Back Better (and he still is working on it): the largest public investment in social infrastructure and environmental programs that is actually finishing what FDR started, then LBJ expanded on, and Joe Biden is attempting to complete.

Democratic Congressman Ted Lieu responds: “Thank you, @RepMTG. More of this, please.”


I have no special animus towards Tom Cruise, and in general I love action movies, but his action-movie series will never be Mission: Impossible to me. The original MI TV series was the polar opposite of a star vehicle: The plan was the star, and it was carried out each week by a rotating collection of perfectly chosen agents with extraordinary-but-not-superhuman abilities.

While I’m on the subject, here’s something I just learned this week: One of the best things about the MI franchise is the catchy beat of its theme song. If you read that beat as Morse code, it’s dash-dash, dot-dot, dash-dash, dot-dot. In other words: MI, MI, MI …

A related point: Cruise will also never be Jack Reacher for me. In the Lee Child novels, Reacher is 6’5″, and the first thing people notice about him is how physically imposing he is. Alan Ritchson, who plays the role in Amazon’s Reacher series, is a much better choice.

and let’s close with something cosmic

The James Webb space telescope turned 1 this week. To celebrate, I’ll share this image of the Rho Ophiuchi cloud complex, the closest star-forming region to Earth.

Future Liberty

The next generation will have its own conceptions of liberty. It will interpret the principles of the Constitution, enduring as they are, differently than this generation has interpreted them. Change is unstoppable. And to the extent Bruen and decisions like it try to stop that change, they will not last long. The only question is how long the People will let them remain.

– Judge Carlton Reeves
United States v Bullock

This week’s featured post is “Courts are still in session“.

This week everybody was talking about the heat

July 4 and 5 weren’t just hot days, and they didn’t just set records for the highest global average temperature ever recorded. They were the hottest days in the last 125,000 years.

And the problem isn’t just the heat, it’s how fast the climate is changing. Here’s the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s graph of the last 2,000 years’ global temperatures relative to some long-term average.

The speed is important: If the climate changes over thousands or tens of thousands of years, species can migrate and interbreed and adjust. But if the same change happens over 100 years, many will just go extinct.

and court decisions

The featured post covers the injunction against Biden officials communicating with social-media companies, a Mississippi judge’s argument against originalism, and an appellate court letting Tennessee’s ban on gender-affirming care take effect.

In addition, more commentary on last week’s Supreme Court rulings has appeared.

The Atlantic’s Adam Serwer exposes “The Most Baffling Argument a Supreme Court Justice Has Ever Made“: Clarence Thomas’ concurrence in the decision that struck down affirmative action.

Being an “originalist”, Thomas has to align his interpretation of the 14th Amendment — that it’s colorblind and does not allow race-conscious laws — with the same Congress’ reauthorization of the Freedman’s Bureau to look out for the interests of the former slaves.

To square this circle, Thomas insists that the term freedmen was a “formally race-neutral category” and a “decidedly underinclusive proxy for race.”

Thomas is correct that not all Blacks in the former Confederacy had been slaves (only about 90%, Serwer says; today, not all Black people are applicants to universities). But since only Black people could have been enslaved, everyone understood that a “freedman” was Black. So Congress did indeed pass a law to help Black people.

[Thomas’] efforts at reconciliation ultimately illustrate the extent to which “originalism” is merely a process of exploiting history to justify conservative policy preferences, and not a neutral philosophical framework.

Which is more or less the same thing I was saying last week.

You might expect that this responsibility to read the text closely would limit the power of judges to insert their own views into the law, but as practiced by the current justices, it does the exact opposite. Understanding how words were commonly understood at some point in the past is a job for historians, and the justices are not historians. Nor do they typically respect the consensus of the people who are historians.

Instead, we are treated to excursions into history that — voila! — always reach the desired result. If you’ve ever delved deeply into history yourself, you should understand how unlikely this is. History, researched honestly, frequently jars your preconceived notions. But the conservative justices are never jarred off their favored course.


Like almost every other week, there’s a new story about Clarence Thomas living the high life, and his rich “friends” footing the bill.


Jamelle Bouie points out something significant in John Roberts’ opinions in race cases: He never talks about racism itself.

I want to highlight Chief Justice Roberts’s avoidance of racism as a prime example of “racecraft,” the term coined by the historians Karen and Barbara Fields to describe the transmutation of a set of actions (racism) into a set of qualities or characteristics (race).

Racecraft, the Fieldses write in “Racecraft: The Soul of Inequality in America,” “transforms racism, something an aggressor does, into race, something the target is, in a sleight of hand that is easy to miss.”


Linda Greenhouse takes a long-term look at what John Roberts has accomplished for conservatives:

To appreciate that transformation’s full dimension, consider the robust conservative wish list that greeted the new chief justice 18 years ago: Overturn Roe v. Wade. Reinterpret the Second Amendment to make private gun ownership a constitutional right. Eliminate race-based affirmative action in university admissions. Elevate the place of religion across the legal landscape. Curb the regulatory power of federal agencies.

These goals were hardly new, but to conservatives’ bewilderment and frustration, the court under the previous chief justice, the undeniably conservative William Rehnquist, failed to accomplish a single one of them.

18 years later, Roberts has achieved them all.


In the featured post, I compare the ambiguity of the social-media injunction to that of anti-critical-race-theory laws, where the proposed applications of the law seem at odds with its text, leaving teachers wondering what is actually legal.

The problem is that it’s almost impossible to interpret anti-critical-race-theory laws so that they simultaneously

  • make sense
  • apply to something real.

A recent flap in Oklahoma illustrates the point: Given Oklahoma’s anti-CRT law, can schools teach about the Tulsa Massacre of 1921, in which White mobs invaded a prosperous Black suburb, massacred hundreds of people, and burned 35 blocks of buildings?

Yes, says state superintendent of schools Ryan Walters, but only if you do it right. I quote at length here to be scrupulously fair to Walters:

I would never tell a kid that because of your race, because of the color of your skin, or your gender or anything like that, you are less of a person or are inherently racist. That doesn’t mean you don’t judge the actions of individuals. Oh, you can. Absolutely, historically, you should. ‘This was right. This was wrong. They did this for this reason.’ But to say it was inherent in that because of their skin is where I say that is Critical Race Theory. You’re saying that race defines a person.

Several commentators interpreted Walters as saying that the massacre wasn’t really about race, or at least, that we shouldn’t tell the kids that it was. That would be a crazy point for Walters to be making, but that’s not how I read his words.

To me he seems to be saying that teaching about the massacre only goes wrong if you teach that the White rioters were driven to violence by some inherent flaw in their DNA, i.e., some racist gene that White students in the class likely share. (My initial reading seems consistent with the way Walters followed up: “I am referring to individuals who carried out the crime. They didn’t act that way because they were White, they acted that way because they were racist.”)

So if I make that interpretation, I have to agree with him: Blaming some inescapable quality of whiteness would be a terrible way to teach the massacre. It might even convince some White kids that they are “less of a person” because of “the color of their skin”. So in my interpretation, Walters’ answer passes the “make sense” requirement.

But then we hit the second horn of the dilemma: Has anyone in the entire history of Oklahoma schools ever taught the massacre that way? Has any teacher ever told his or her class that White people are genetically inclined to massacre Black people? I haven’t read every anti-racism book out there, but I’ve read a lot of them. And I’ve never seen anything like that account of white-on-black violence.

Summing up: If you define CRT in such a way that it’s obviously objectionable, then your ban doesn’t ban anything that is actually taught. Conversely, if you define CRT so that it applies to things that are actually taught, then it’s not all that objectionable.

Teachers, principals, and superintendents don’t want to take the risk of interpreting the laws literally, because that means the legislature was just wasting its time and didn’t actually intend to ban anything. And so they are left to imagine what the law will mean in practice, and to self-censor accordingly.

and Moms for “Liberty”

You probably didn’t pay much attention to the Moms For “Liberty” national summit in Philadelphia a little over a week ago, which drew most of the top Republican presidential candidates, including Trump and DeSantis.

One night’s keynote speaker was less famous: right-wing talk show host Dennis Praeger. But I think this quote explains a lot:

God made order out of chaos, and the left is making chaos out of order. The notion that there is no such thing as a male or a female human being is chaos. It is a gigantic lie, but it is more than a lie, it is chaos. … [O]rder reflects God, the Creator.

One of the things I always wonder, when MFL-type people respond with near-violent anger to trans youth or drag queens or some other manifestation of gender ambiguity is “Why do you care?” If somebody you perceive as a guy wants to express his liberty by wearing a skirt or eye shadow, or holding hands with another guy, what’s it to you? How does that ruin your day?

I think the Praeger quote explains it: An authoritarian world with clear rules and clear categories comes with an implicit promise of safety for those who obey and conform. So that nonbinary kid on the subway whose gender you can’t quite identify — it’s not that they’re going to attack you themselves. It’s that they represent a crack in the “safe” world order, a manifestation of Chaos. And as those cracks grow, who can predict what demons will spill into the world?

Of course, obedience and conformity are the exact opposite of the Liberty the group is supposed to stand for. But I guess Moms For Obedience and Conformity just doesn’t have the same ring.

Anyway, this explains how Trump can say weird stuff like “Democrats hate God” — as he did in his conference speech — and not be sedated and sent to a mental ward for his own protection. It’s all part of the “spiritual warfare” that increasingly justifies right-wing violence.


Some background: MFL has largely followed the model of the Tea Party from 2009-10: a group organized around local chapters that can expand rapidly because it has access to large amounts of dark money, making it a blend of grassroots and astroturf. Peter Greene describes it like this:

While the movement is not exactly fake, it’s not exactly real, either. Conservatives who argue that this is just a grass roots groundswell are ignoring the deliberate moves made to ramp up this controversy, most notably by Christopher Rufo

Leading anti-wii groups like Moms for Liberty and Parents Defending Education are operated by professional communications folks and seasoned political operatives, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t activated and harnessed actual anger and upset among people on the ground.

Historian Nicole Hammer places them in the tradition of 20th century right-wing women’s groups.

These mothers’ movements, from the WKKK, to massive resistance to Save Our Children, all relied on the image of mothers protecting children. But they were in service of a much larger political project: shoring up traditional hierarchies of race and sexuality. They were about motherhood and education, but as a means to an end. Moms for Liberty operates in precisely the same way, building on this century-long tradition. The book bans, the curricula battles, the efforts to fire teachers and disrupt school board meetings — little here is new.

and you also might be interested in …

Who could have anticipated this? Launching Trump’s “Truth Social” Twitter clone involved a securities fraud that has led to an $18 million civil settlement with the SEC. How does such a straight-shooting, tell-it-like-it-is guy keep winding up in the middle of fraud? Just bad luck, I guess.


In the previous section, I discussed the conservative tendency to see liberals as demonic. I confess I’m tempted to do something similar when I see articles like this one: “House Republicans target the Pentagon’s use of electric vehicles“.

The generals note some tactical advantages of electric vehicles: They’re quieter and cooler, so they’ll be harder for the enemy to detect.

But of course, electric jeeps and tanks would also make the world a better place by limiting carbon emissions, and that can’t be tolerated.


Paul Waldman interprets the “Freedom” Caucus’ attempt to expel Marjorie Taylor Greene: Greene and the Caucus have conflicting views on how to gain and wield power.


Soraya Chemaly discusses Josh Hawley’s book on masculinity, which I have not yet steeled myself to read. One trait I’m coming to appreciate in arguments is a willingness to restate what the opponent gets right, as Chemaly does here:

A recent study conducted by Equimundo Center for Masculinities and Social Justice indicates that Hawley’s onto something and identifies the important connection between manhood and a sense of purpose. While boys and men in America are diffusely struggling to understand masculinity and changing gender roles, the study finds, one cohort of boys and men is not struggling to find meaning: those with the most conservative and traditional beliefs. 

The challenge, Chemaly rightly (IMO) observes, is to come up with a vision of male purpose that doesn’t assume male dominance, as traditional beliefs do. I mean, me-running-everything is a vision of my purpose that I can easily accept, but I don’t see why anyone else should accept it.

The increasing gender equality of recent decades has upset a vision of male purpose that relies on male dominance. One solution — Hawley’s (though he would probably deny it) — is just to undo it all and let men dominate again. That’s conceptually simple, but I can’t believe there’s nothing better.

and let’s close with something scenic

I love photo contests. It’s not just the beauty or poignancy of the image itself, but also the fantasy of traveling to exotic locations, finding the perfect spot, and knowing exactly when to push the button.

So while I have no idea who Prince Albert II of Monaco is, I am grateful to his foundation for establishing an environmental photography award. This year’s winners were announced last month. Here’s a shot of an ice cave in Iceland.

Ignorance seeking bliss

Ignoring race will not equalize a society that is racially unequal. What was true in the 1860s, and again in 1954, is true today: Equality requires acknowledgment of inequality.

– Justice Sonia Sotomayor
SFFA v Harvard, dissenting

This week’s featured post is “The Court Unleashed“.

This week everybody was talking about the Supreme Court

As usual, and as I predicted last week, the Court saved its most controversial decisions for last. In the featured post, I examined how the Court is throwing off any restraint on its power. For a case-by-case analysis, I’ll refer you to a series of articles by Vox’ Ian Millhiser.

Another angle not covered in the featured post is what happens next. On student loan relief, President Biden has not given up. His Department of Education is working on a new approach based on a different law.

On LGBTQ rights, the ball is in the bigots’ court. As I explained in the featured post, the 303 Creative case was vaporous, so there are no immediate consequences: Maybe Lorie Smith will start her wedding website business and maybe it will discriminate, but who really cares? Her case was a stalking horse for future discrimination, and we’ll have to wait and see what that discrimination entails.

The affirmative action case is immediately consequential if you hope to attend a university in the coming years. The first thing to look for is what each institution’s new admission policy is, and whether they try to achieve the goal of a diverse student body in some other way — say by focusing on class rather than race, or recruiting a more diverse applicant poll, or something else.

Whatever they do, it seems likely that Black and Hispanic enrollment in elite universities and professional schools will drop, at least in the near term.

A few people on my social media feed have suggested an intriguing idea: What if some religion-affiliated university claims that its religious mission requires a diverse student body? How would the Court handle a religious-freedom defense of an affirmative-action admission policy?

My candidate university: Georgetown.

“Georgetown, the oldest Catholic and Jesuit university in the nation, was founded on the principle that engagement between people of different faiths, cultures and beliefs promotes intellectual development, an understanding of service and solidarity, and a commitment to the common good,” says Georgetown President John J. DeGioia. “Our Jesuit tradition of education recognizes the value of diversity as necessary to education and in our work to shape future leaders who will make invaluable contributions to our national and global communities.”

Another possibility is Notre Dame, where Amy Coney Barrett got her law degree and used to teach.

At Notre Dame, our Catholic mission compels us to build a class reflecting the diversity of experiences and gifts of the human family. We undertake a comprehensive assessment of applicants, admit talented students with interests and aspirations consonant with our mission, and provide opportunities for a wide range of young people. These commitments are as meaningful today at Notre Dame as they were yesterday. We will study the Supreme Court’s decision and consider any implications for our admissions process as we strive to fulfill our distinctive mission.


In the background of the affirmative action debate is a national sense of disappointment. In the 1960s, it was easy to imagine that our racial caste system needed a legal framework. Once Jim Crow and various other legally enforced discrimination ended, many of us expected things to equalize. In a generation or two, race truly would not matter.

By now it’s obvious that didn’t happen. So we’re seeing a number of possible responses:

  • Pretend it did happen. This seems to be Chief Justice Roberts’ approach: It’s been such a long time, racism must be over by now.
  • Blame Black people: We really did level the playing field, so anybody who can’t climb the meritocracy must just lack merit.
  • Blame White people: Prejudice is so strongly ingrained in Whites that we can’t let Blacks succeed.
  • Look for structural inertia. Once a caste system takes root, it manifests in more places than just the law. It was naive to think that ending blatant legal discrimination would fix everything.

Personally, I’m a structuralist. White prejudice still persists and still matters; I can see it in myself, for example. But I don’t think the personal prejudices of individual Whites are the main force keeping Black people down.


Some of the best short-form political satire comes from the NYT Pitchbot, which suggests articles for the New York Times to pursue:

Opinion | Without the burden of affirmative action, Harvard can finally become a true meritocracy by Jared Kushner and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

and Bidenomics

It goes without saying that the Biden administration doesn’t hype itself as often or as well as the Trump administration did. Trump is a natural braggart and showman, while Biden has consistently focused more on governing than on taking credit.

In part, not taking credit is part of Biden’s governing strategy: He has gotten a surprising amount of Republican cooperation on stuff like infrastructure and technology precisely because he leaves the focus on infrastructure and technology rather than making it all about himself. Trump, on the other hand, consistently failed to get programs through Congress, even when his party controlled both houses.

The result is that Biden consistently runs behind Trump in polls about managing the economy, in spite of the fact that Biden’s record is pretty darn good: Trump handed him a terrible economy in 2021, and yet the predicted recession never comes and jobs continue to be created at record rates. Trump’s economic record can be summed up in two lines: Obama left him a growing economy with room to run, and Mitch McConnell let him run big deficits that he would have rejected under a Democratic president. Nothing else about the Trump administration made much economic difference.

But it’s nearly impossible to get reelected without claiming credit for things, so Biden has begun to lay claim to a term Republicans have been using as an insult: Bidenomics.

Bidenomics isn’t just a slogan and a set of graphs. It actually means something that should be popular if people hear its message. Ever since Reagan, the economy has been run under a trickle-down theory: Make sure rich people have lots of money and hope they invest it in things that create jobs. That was the logic of Trump’s tax cut, which went almost entirely to corporations and the rich.

Biden’s vision is to build the economy “from the middle out and the bottom up“. The three legs Bidenomics stands on are: public investment in infrastructure and future oriented industries like sustainable energy; empowering the workforce through training and unionization; and promoting competition through antitrust enforcement.

and you also might be interested in …

A January 6 defendant was arrested near Barrack Obama’s home with two guns and 400 rounds of ammunition.


Pro-science podcaster Skepchick (Rebecca Watson) lines up on the don’t-debate-kooks side of the Peter Hotez/Joe Rogan/RFK Jr. controversy that I discussed last week. In case you imagine RFK Jr. can’t really be that bad, Rebecca summarizes what he said on Rogan’s show (“to which Joe Rogan responded with a pathetic, open-mouthed gape”).

vaccines cause autism, vaccines contain mercury, ivermectin cures COVID, “Big Pharma” “had to destroy” ivermectin to get emergency use authorization for vaccines, all the studies showing no benefit to ivermectin are fake, taking the COVID vaccine makes you “21 percent more likely to die of all causes,” he’s being silenced by “Big Pharma,” and oh yeah, wifi “radiation” ALSO causes autism plus food allergies, asthma, and eczema while “degrad(ing) your mitochondria and (opening) your blood-brain barrier.”

I can understand Democrats worrying about Biden’s age, or wishing the liberal worldview had a more charismatic advocate. But seriously, is that what you want in a president?

and let’s close with something pop cultural

As the Oppenheimer movie opens, let’s flash back to Oppy’s previous pop-culture appearance: his rap battle with Thanos.

Well-wrapped Riddles

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

Winston Churchill
October, 1939

This week’s featured posts are “Pardon?” (where I consider whether Biden should pardon Trump) and “Sam Alito: yet another corrupt conservative justice“. And this is what I did with my week off.

This week everybody was talking about Russia

Russia just had a WTF weekend:

The crisis in Russia erupted Friday when [Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny] Prigozhin accused Russia’s military of attacking a Wagner camp and killing his men – and vowed to retaliate by force.

Prigozhin then led his troops into Russia: He occupied Rostov-on-Don and claimed to have taken control of key military facilities in the Voronezh region, where there was an apparent clash between Wagner units and Russian forces.

The crisis was apparently resolved by a deal: Prigozhin has gone to Belarus and treason charges against him have been dropped. (Though no one has actually seen him in Belarus yet. For that matter, no one has seen Putin in the last couple days either.)

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) makes an analogy (which I’ve fleshed out a little): Imagine if an American military contractor (Blackwater, say) turned its troops toward Washington, marched a considerable distance, and only stopped when its leader (Erik Prince, in this analogy) was given asylum in Canada.

WTF indeed.

I won’t say nobody saw this coming, because I remember seeing a prediction last summer — I wish I remembered where — that the Ukraine War would end when unrest in Russia caused the various factions to bring their troops home.

That scenario seemed far-fetched to me at the time, but it’s looking a lot more credible now.

BTW: Be wary of any American pundit who claims to know what’s going to happen next. This New Yorker article is as good as anything I’ve seen. David Remnick talks to Russian emigre journalist Mikhail Zygar:

“Putin is weaker. I have the feeling he is not really running the country. Certainly, not the way he once did. He is still President, but all the different clans”—the factions within the government, the military, and, most important, the security services—“now have the feeling that ‘Russia after Putin’ is getting closer. Putin is still alive. He is still there in his bunker. But there is the growing feeling that he is a lame duck, and they have to prepare for Russia after Putin.”

But everybody is just guessing. There’s a broad consensus that Putin’s hold on power is weaker than anyone previously thought. How much weaker? Nobody really knows.

Also, Putin is evil, but that doesn’t mean Prigozhin is good. His Wagner mercenaries have committed atrocities in Ukraine, and if Putin doesn’t get him first, he’ll probably be tried for war crimes someday.

and GOP conspiracy theories going splat

This week, two Trump-appointed investigators disappointed MAGA conspiracy theorists: Special Counsel John Durham testified to Congress and US Attorney David Weiss settled charges against Hunter Biden with no jail time.


Remember when Trump had Bill Barr appoint John Durham to uncover “the crime of the century“? You know, stuff that was “far bigger than anybody thought possible”? Like how the FBI conspired with Hillary Clinton to invent “the Russia hoax” out of nothing and smear Trump with it in an attempted coup?

Well, never mind. Wednesday Durham testified to the House Judiciary Committee about the dense and headline-free 300-page final report he submitted in May. Republicans on the committee desperately wanted Durham to verify their conspiracy theories exonerating Trump, and to flesh out their dark fantasies of a Deep State conspiracy against him, but he did not do so.

Instead, he said that Russian election interference was real, (“[O]ur report should not be read to suggest that Russian election interference was not a significant threat. It was.”), that Robert Mueller is “a patriot”, and that Merrick Garland didn’t interfere with his investigation.

He admitted that the reason that former President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton still walk free, no matter how much Trumpworld wants them behind bars, is that there’s simply no evidence of wrongdoing.

He criticized how the FBI handled the Trump/Russia investigation, but found a series of individual errors, not a vast conspiracy. In the end, Matt Gaetz accused Durham of being “part of the cover-up”. Because that’s what you do after you give a guy 3+ years and millions of dollars to investigate something, and he can’t tell you what you want to hear.

Gaetz is applying the usual conspiracy-theory rule: The complete lack of evidence is the surest proof that the conspiracy is working.


Hunter Biden is pleading guilty to two tax misdemeanors, has paid his previously unpaid taxes, and has struck a deal with DoJ to resolve a federal gun charge. He’ll serve two years probation. All the unsubstantiated rumors Republicans have been spreading about multi-million-dollar bribery schemes that implicate his father have come to nothing.

The US attorney in charge of the Hunter investigation is David Weiss, who was appointed by Trump and left in place by the Biden administration. The plea deal now goes to a Trump-appointed judge for approval.

Through a spokesperson, Joe Biden commented as a father, not as the prosecutor’s boss.

The President and First Lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life. We will have no further comment.

Did Weiss cut Hunter a sweetheart deal? Republicans, of course, claim he did. But most legal experts say no.

“If Hunter Biden’s name was John or Jane Doe, no criminal tax prosecution would have ever been contemplated and he would have almost certainly been slotted into a pre-trial diversion program, saving the government the time and expense of a trial,” said Martin Sheil, a former supervisory special agent in the IRS Criminal Investigation.

“So if Hunter has paid all of his taxes, albeit delinquently, arguably Uncle Sam has suffered no harm and justice was done,” Sheil said.

And as for the weapons charge, CNN legal analyst Elie Honig says:

[T]he vast majority of federal gun crimes involve somebody who either used the gun in some sort of violent crime or somebody who’s a prior convicted felon. … So it’s rare to even see someone prosecuted at all under the law that Hunter Biden was prosecuted for, which is possession of a gun by an addict.

and the Supreme Court

Supreme Court stories come in two flavors: rulings they’ve made and new insight into the corruption of the conservative justices. This week we had one of each: The Biden administration won an immigration case against two red-state attorneys general, and this time it was Sam Alito who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. (I cover Alito in a featured post.)


First the immigration case: Under Trump, any immigrant without legal status was subject to deportation. When Biden took over, he issued a new order prioritizing three classes of the undocumented: suspected terrorists, criminals, and those recently caught at the border. In effect, this meant that most of the country’s 11 million undocumented immigrants could live their lives without fear. (One consequence of this policy was that the woman who had been in sanctuary at my church for three years could finally leave.)

Texas and Louisiana sued to stop this change, but Friday the Court ruled 8-1 that they lack standing. Brett Kavanaugh wrote the majority opinion.

Kavanaugh framed the dispute as an effort by the two states to obtain a court order that would require DHS to “alter its arrest policy so that the Department arrests more noncitizens.” But there is no history of courts “ordering the Executive Branch to change its arrest or prosecution policies so that the Executive Branch makes more arrests or initiates more prosecutions.”


This week ends the Court’s term, so we’re expecting decisions in several major cases:

  • whether universities can use affirmative action in their admission decisions
  • the legality of Biden’s student-loan forgiveness program
  • whether a state supreme court can overrule gerrymandering by the legislature
  • yet another religious “freedom” vs. minority rights case

My guess is that Roberts has manipulated the calendar so that the Court’s most controversial decisions will come last. The cases decided recently have been divided between liberal and conservative wins, building up Roberts’ “centrist” credibility.

But there’s no point in speculating, because by Thursday we’ll know.

and you also might be interested in …

For several days, the media obsessed over the fate of the Titan, a small submarine carrying tourists to the site of the Titanic wreck on the floor of the Atlantic Ocean. For days, a global audience imagined the five people on board stranded and running out of oxygen, but it’s now believed that the sub imploded around the time contact was lost, killing everyone instantly.

A ticket to visit the Titanic went for $250,000. Because the Titanic is in international waters, no country’s safety regulations applied. Wikipedia says: “The vessel was not certified as seaworthy by any regulatory agency or third-party organization.”

At more-or-less the same time, a fishing boat carrying 750 migrants sank off the coast of Greece, killing more than 500. The NYT examines why this larger disaster received far less attention.


Your social media feed may not have blown up with discussions of whether vaccine researcher Dr. Peter Hotez should debate vaccine denier Robert Kennedy Jr. on Joe Rogan’s podcast. But mine did. Rogan has offered $100K to the charity of Hotez’s choice, and Hotez has turned him down.

There’s been a lot of back-and-forth about whether this is the right decision or not. (I think it is.) I think David Roberts has the most thoughtful take on the subject: What makes science science is that it’s not two individuals trying to sway a crowd. It’s a social process through which a community of well-trained researchers checks and rechecks each other’s work.

If you put evidence & empiricism aside at the beginning, then charisma is your only guide, & if charisma is your only guide, getting taken in & conned by glib charlatans is 100% inevitable. There’s no squaring that circle.

… Over time, science has stumbled in the direction of reliable truth, because it hasn’t relied on brilliant or charismatic individuals, but rather on a *social* process of mutual checking & re-checking, covering each other’s blind spots. The thing about science, as I said, is that it tacks directly against some strong human instincts. That’s why it requires specialized training & specialized institutions, and even then it falls short repeatedly. You have to actively push/support it to keep it alive.

Anyway, what I see — not only in conservative religious communities like evangelicals but in today’s reactionary politics — is a kind of pre-scientific understanding of truth in which there are nothing but competing tribes with contesting claims, and the way to decide between them basically comes down to aesthetics or identity. It’s who talks best, who has the best rap. You see this in how they approach, eg, journalism: the demand that media must print the claims of each side, because there are *only* claims, only tribes, nothing beyond.

… And at long last this brings me back around to “debate me, bro.” If you understand science & the scientific method, you understand the very obvious reasons that live debate is a terrible, terrible way to seek truth. It is a format that strips away everything *except* charisma.

Truth-seeking is slow, incremental, & above all *social*. Live debate is all about big dramatic claims & facility with language. It selects for charisma, not truth. But! If you have this pre-scientific, evangelical conception of truth, then there is *only* charisma and so it follows that live debate is the perfect way to settle claims. Who can give the best rap? Who can dazzle the audience? Who’s funny or charming or has good anecdotes? Who can talk faster?


This week’s shooting-fish-in-barrel target comes from Nikki Haley:

Do you remember when you were growing up, do you remember how simple life was, how easy it felt? It was about faith, family, and country. We can have that again, but to do that, we must vote Joe Biden out.

That tweet went viral, and lots of people, particularly those who experienced abuse or discrimination or violence while growing up, reacted with hostility. And I get that response, but it’s probably what Haley wanted: She trolled them, because defending a nostalgic myth of America against angry people who know better is a good look for a Republican presidential candidate.

And that’s why I like Paula Poundstone’s more compassionate response:

Nikki, it’s possible that when you were growing up, like me, you just weren’t aware of much of what was going on in the country. It’s important that, as adults, we try to inform ourselves, instead of trying to recreate our own ignorance.

After all, the point isn’t to school Nikki Haley, who probably knows exactly she’s doing. The point is to address people who read Haley’s tweet and long for the feeling she’s describing. Striking back at Haley makes them feel like you’re striking at them (and increases their identification with Haley).

So here’s what I’ll add to Poundstone’s tweet: When you’re growing up, good parents will try to shield you from trauma and horror. If you’re lucky they’ll succeed, and you’ll reach your teen years with a deep inner conviction that life makes sense and the world is tractable.

But if, as an adult, you want a leader to recreate that feeling for you now, you are looking for an authoritarian personality cult, a Big Daddy or Big Mommy who can reassure you that everything is going to be OK. And Haley is right: Biden won’t do that for you.

and let’s close with something deep

The search for the Titan sub points out something we slide over in common language: We talk about “the bottom of the sea” as if it were a specific place. But what you’re really talking about depends on where you are. This animation makes it clear why the site of the Titanic is very different from the places where scuba divers or submarines typically go. (The Titanic shows up at about the 3:30 mark.)

Bamboozlement and Truth

No Sift next week. The next new articles appear on June 26.

One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.

Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World

This week’s featured post is “The Mar-a-Lago Documents Indictment“.

This week everybody was talking about the Trump indictment

That’s the subject of the featured post.

Jeff Sharlet takes a deep dive into the fascist codewords in Trump’s first post-federal-indictment speech. Among other things, Sharlet has the only coherent interpretation I’ve heard of “Jack Smith. Does anyone know what his name used to be?” Sharlet reads this as an implication that Smith is Jewish, and hence part of the conspiracy of “globalists” and “Marxists”, which are also fascist codewords for Jews.

Jack Smith, claims Trump, “caused” the IRS to “go after evangelicals, Christians, great Americans of faith.” Get the antisemitism? Jack Smith, who must have changed his name must be a Jewish enemy of Christianity.

Sharlet also has a principle I will have to keep in mind: You can’t fact-check a myth, but you can interpret it.

What he seems to mean by that is that it does no good to point out that what Trump (or some other fascist) says is untrue. His followers probably already know that it’s untrue, or they don’t care. The point of saying such things is to communicate something. Decoding the communication is more important than challenging the fact.

I believe he referenced the following Sartre quote somewhere, but I can’t find the link:

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

and wildfire smoke

We usually associate wildfires with the West, and mostly with sparsely populated areas. But this week smoke from wildfires in Canada blanketed the densely populated Northeast, including New York, Boston, and Philadelphia.

Most of the time, climate change seems abstract, but scenes like the one below bring it home.

and the other Republicans running for president

There’s a type of self-fulfilling prophesy that always drives me nuts: Because everyone believes “You can’t do X”, nobody even tries to do X. And then the fact that X doesn’t happen is taken as evidence for “You can’t do X.”

One case in point is the belief among Republicans that “You can’t stand up to Trump.” So again and again we’ve seen some senator like Jeff Flake or Bob Corker or Ben Sasse criticize Trump in some fairly mild way, and then not seek reelection. At each impeachment trial, Mitch McConnell had it in his power to remove Trump from office and make him ineligible to run again, but he backed down both times. Trump was almost untouchable for a few weeks after January 6, but then Kevin McCarthy made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to kiss his ring.

For six years now, Republicans who are secretly anti-Trump have been hoping that someone else — the Democrats, the courts, more courageous Republicans — would take Trump out, absorb the anger of his cult, and leave them to pick up the pieces. But it hasn’t happened.

Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney are the most visible Trump critics who did not voluntarily walk into the sunset. Cheney was expelled from the party, but Romney still seems to be doing fine. For the most part, though, the Republican Party has surrendered without putting up a fight. It’s hard to blame Republican voters for believing there’s no case against Trump, when none of their elected leaders are willing to make that case.

The first few candidates to challenge Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination continued the pattern. Listening to Nikki Haley or Tim Scott raises an obvious question: “Why are you running?” If the front-runner in the race was such a great president and you have no signature issue you would handle differently, why go to all the bother?

Mike Pence’s timid criticisms inspired this parody from Josh Marshall:

Pence: I should have been hanged. Trump couldn’t get it done. I will.

For a long time Ron DeSantis seemed to think he could handle Trump without confronting him, but that resulted in a collapse of the strong position he held in the polls after the midterm elections, where DeSantis did well and Trump-endorsed candidates did badly. But key Republican constituencies — White working-class men, Evangelical Christians — are looking for a fighter who will stand up to the cultural forces working against them. Every time DeSantis takes a punch from Trump without punching back, he convinces more voters that he’s not that guy.

Well finally somebody has entered the race to go after Trump: Chris Christie, who has a CNN town hall tonight.

The grift from this family is breathtaking. It’s breathtaking. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Kushner walk out of the White House, and months later get $2 billion from the Saudis. You think it’s because he’s some kind of investing genius? Or do you think it’s because he was sitting next to the president of the United States for four years doing favors for the Saudis? That’s your money. That’s your money he stole and gave it to his family. You know what that makes us? A banana republic.

He has almost no chance to be the nominee himself, but maybe he can wound Trump badly enough to give someone else a shot at the nomination.

and the voting-rights decision

Chief Justice Roberts has been chipping away at the Voting Right Act for years, so it was a surprise Thursday when Roberts wrote a majority opinion preserving what is left of the VRA. Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh joined the court’s three liberals (Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson) in a 5-4 decision rejecting Alabama’s congressional map, which is drawn so that only one of the seven districts has a non-white majority.

Decades of precedent have interpreted the VRA as requiring the creation of majority-minority districts when a state’s voters are racially polarized, the current map results in a congressional delegation where minorities are under-represented, and the districts can be drawn without violating other principles of sound redistricting, like forming compact and contiguous districts that don’t split cities and counties unnecessarily. This has become known as the Gingles test, after the 1986 case where it was spelled out.

Alabama could easily have created a second majority-minority district, bringing its congressional delegation closer to racial parity. But it chose not to, inviting the Court to replace Gingles with a less rigorous test. Justices Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Coney Barrett agreed with Alabama.

So the current decision preserves the status quo. It doesn’t represent an advance in minority voting rights.

This decision concerns an injunction, not a final resolution of the case. But the injunction is based in part on the Court’s assessment that Alabama is likely to lose on the merits.

Personally, I remain skeptical of Roberts’ intentions. Like Ed Pilkington in The Guardian, I think Roberts plays a long game. Whenever he is about to push hard in one direction, he first makes a head fake in the opposite direction to give himself cover.

Any day now, I expect the Court to strike down affirmative action in college admissions. When that happens, the media will reference this voting-rights decision to frame Roberts as a “moderate”. Taken as a whole, though, the two decisions will represent a continued whittling down of minority rights, and Roberts can continue destroying the VRA in some later decision.

and the Right shutting down the House

The resolution of the debt-ceiling crisis showed that the far-right House “Freedom” Caucus has less power than they like to think. Naturally, they have to do something to strike back.

Originally, everyone expected they would exercise the concession they got when Kevin McCarthy needed their votes to become speaker: Any single member can introduce a resolution the “vacate the chair” and reopen the speaker election.

Apparently that didn’t suit their purposes, though, so they have struck back at the House as a whole rather than just McCarthy. They have been withholding their support on the procedural motions that bills need to progress towards passage, so the House is essentially shut down.

So far, this is just affecting Republican priorities, like a bill to stop the completely imaginary threat that Biden might ban gas stoves. But the federal fiscal year ends on September 30, so if new appropriation bills aren’t passed by then, the government will have to shut down.

and golf

Corporate PR efforts have expanded our language in so many ways. Many of the new terms spin off of whitewashing, a metaphor for putting a deceptively bright sheen on something rotten. For example, the NRDC has defined greenwashing like this:

Greenwashing is the act of making false or misleading statements about the environmental benefits of a product or practice. It can be a way for companies to continue or expand their polluting as well as related harmful behaviors, all while gaming the system or profiting off well-intentioned, sustainably minded consumers.

This year, Saudi Arabia’s sponsorship of a new golf league, LIV, popularized a new -washing term: sportswashing, which Greenpeace defines:

Sportswashing is the act of sponsoring a sports team or event in order to distract from bad practices elsewhere. This tactic is often used by companies and governments with poor environmental or human rights records, exploiting people’s love of sport to ‘wash’ their image clean.

Saudi Arabia’s image desperately needs washing. They’re a repressive feudal monarchy with a wasteful and corrupt royal family. They export a dangerous strain of Islam. 15 of the 19 9-11 hijackers were Saudi, as was Osama bin Laden. They sponsor war crimes in Yemen. Their crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the killing and dismemberment of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who was residing in Virginia and working for The Washington Post at the time of his death. Currently, they are working with Russia to keep oil prices high, which helps Putin finance his war in Ukraine.

But on the plus side, they have oil and a huge amount of money: Their sovereign wealth fund is sitting on more than $600 billion. So the fund created the LIV golf tour and started writing nine-figure checks to secure the participation of big-name golfers.

This presented a moral challenge to golfers, and the words “blood money” came up fairly often. The previously dominant PGA tour capitalized on that. PGA Commissioner Jay Monahan challenged golfers by invoking the families of 9-11 victims:

I would ask any player who has left or any player who would consider leaving: “Have you ever had to apologize for being a member of the PGA Tour?”

Well, this week Monahan announced a merger with LIV. Let the apologies begin.

and you also might be interested in …

Anti-abortion Republicans have been pushing 12-week bans as a “compromise”, citing similar bans in Europe. The Atlantic’s Julie Suk comments: Not only do Republicans offer far fewer and stricter exceptions than European countries do, but

Republicans are interested in only one part of the European approach to protecting life—the abortion restrictions. They seem to forget that every European country that protects unborn life by restricting abortion after the first trimester protects born life too, through prenatal health care, paid maternity leave, and a public infrastructure for child care and preschool. If Republicans are sincere in invoking Europe as a model, Democrats and other proponents of abortion access should seize this chance to find common ground on policies that would substantially improve the lives of mothers and children in this country.


After months of speculation, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has started. Ukraine reports some advances, but so far it’s hard to tell from the outside whether the offensive is going well or not.

Meanwhile, Russian rebels based in Ukraine have raided and shelled a sliver of Russia.


Pat Robertson died at the age of 93. I mark his passing by remembering two moments in his career:

Robertson called feminism a “socialist, anti-family political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians”. … [O]n his TV show The 700 Club, he agreed emphatically with his fellow evangelist Jerry Falwell’s theory that the 9/11 attacks were caused by “pagans, abortionists, feminists, gays, lesbians, the American Civil Liberties Union, and [the progressive advocacy group] People for the American Way”.

I am a Universalist, so I don’t believe in a vengeful God. If there is an afterlife, I picture it as a place of mercy and compassion rather than retribution.

Sometimes that belief is unsatisfying.


A novel lawsuit is going to trial today: 16 young residents of Montana are invoking a clause in the Montana constitution committing the state to “maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations”. The suit claims that the state’s energy policy, which encourages fossil-fuel production, is unconstitutional.

I’ll be shocked if any Montana laws are thrown out, but the suit will raise local awareness of climate change and frame it in generational terms. Similar cases are pending in Hawaii, Florida, Utah, and Virginia.


I can’t think of an easy way to check this claim, which is almost too good to check anyway: The LA Times article about newsroom layoffs at the LA Times is illustrated with a photo taken by one of the photographers they laid off.


DeSantis pledges to change the name of Fort Liberty back to Fort Bragg, because deciding not to honor the slavery-defending generals of the Confederacy is “political correctness run amok”.

Mike Pence also promises to restore the name of Fort Bragg. What’s up with that? Is the idea that the US Army should honor people who take up arms against the United States in defense of White supremacy?

and let’s close with a public service

As the summer vacation season kicks off, countless articles will tell you where you should go and where to stop along the way. But Explored Planet tells you something just as important: where not to go. What famous places are either over-priced, over-crowded, full of chain franchises you could find at home, or not worth the effort it takes to get there?

Debt and Credit

It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.

President Harry Truman

This week’s featured post is “Joe Biden is Good at Governing“.

This week everybody was talking about the debt ceiling

Saturday, President Biden signed a bill resolving the debt ceiling crisis and pushing the next possible confrontation off to 2025, by which time the American people will have had a chance to weigh in. I discuss this in detail in the featured post.

and the Trump indictment watch

The grand jury considering the Mar-a-Lago documents case last met in early May, prompting speculation that Jack Smith had all the evidence he needed and was now writing an indictment. NBC News claims it’s meeting again sometime this week, prompting speculation that Smith has an indictment for the grand jury to approve.

It’s not clear whether this indictment would just be about the Mar-a-Lago documents, or also include the more complicated January 6 investigation.

and LGBTQ issues

The Sift usually doesn’t take much notice of June as Pride Month, but this year seems different, because the whole concept is under increased right-wing attack. (Target, Bud Light, Kohl’s, Starbucks, Lego, Adidas, and North Face are all facing pressure for stocking Pride merchandise or marketing to transfolk.)

I’m straight, cisgender, and — come next March — I will have been married to the same woman for 40 years. But from time to time I have attended Pride parades or seen drag shows. I’ve always found such events uplifting and life-affirming. I’ve never felt like anyone was telling me I should be gay or trans or anything else. The point is that we can all be what we are, and maybe even what we want to be.

I see LGBTQ Pride as a little like “Black Lives Matter”; it’s a response to a negative. So often our society sends the message that Black lives don’t matter, or that being anything other than heterosexual is shameful or sinful. Simply saying “I’m not ashamed of what I am” doesn’t seem nearly strong enough, so I fully support people expressing pride in themselves.


Friday, a federal judge found that Tennessee’s anti-drag-performance law, the Adult Entertainment Act, is unconstitutional.

The 70-page ruling makes dense reading, because most of it discusses technical issues of whether the plaintiff has standing to sue (i.e., must drag performers wait for the law to be enforced first), and what standard of legal scrutiny (strict or intermediate) applies.

But the judge’s ruling hangs on a few points that aren’t hard to grasp:

  • Targeting “male and female impersonators” focuses the law on suppressing a particular viewpoint, rather than the law’s ostensible purpose of protecting children. If it’s harmful for a child to view some sexually suggestive act, it shouldn’t matter whether the actors are portraying characters of their own gender.
  • Banning drag performances anywhere that a child “could” be present is both vague and overbroad, because a child could sneak in just about anywhere. The law offers no “affirmative defenses”, like “We carded everyone at the door” or “The parents approved.”
  • The harmful-to-children standard is too broad, given how different five-year-olds are from 17-year-olds.
  • The debate in the legislature focused on drag performances, not on harm to children, suggesting that the legislature had the “impermissible purpose” of suppressing drag rather than protecting children.
  • The AEA uses text from previous laws, but significantly changes the context: The previous laws targeted businesses that host adult entertainment, while the AEA criminalizes performers. That raises the stakes on First Amendment issues.

Here’s the hypothetical example I would have brought up had I been arguing the case: What if a woman does a double impersonation, and pretends to be a male performer in drag? Her drag persona would then match her birth-certificate gender, so her act should be legal under the AEA, even if the audience (and especially any children in the audience) can’t tell the difference between her and a male drag performer.

I think a law is very suspect if I don’t show my genitalia in a performance, but police have to know what kind of genitalia I have to say whether my act is legal.


People who are worried about drag queens harming children may be looking in the wrong direction. In Texas, a school superintendent was arrested for online solicitation of a minor. He was caught in a sting operation where police officers posed as children aged 13-15.

Meanwhile, a South Carolina youth pastor was arrested for videotaping girls in his church’s bathroom.

and you also might be interested in …

June is the final month of the Supreme Court term. As usually, the big cases are waiting until the end: affirmative action at universities, whether student debt relief is legal, what kind of racial gerrymandering is allowed, and when “religious freedom” trumps anti-discrimination laws, just to name a few.


I can’t decide whether to take this graphic at face value. Maybe people really do have a lot fewer friends than they used to. But it’s also possible that the definition of friend has gotten stricter over three decades. Suppose I run into someone regularly and have pleasant interactions. Is that a friend, or is more intimacy required? I wonder how my parents would have answered that question, or how many friends they would have claimed to have.

Something cultural makes me take the decline of friendship a little more seriously, though. I’m seeing more and more fantasy series on TV where, when you strip away the supernatural and pseudo-science trappings, the real fantasy is about having friends, in spite of how uncool or fundamentally unlikable you are. Stranger Things is about having friends. Wednesday is about having friends.


Another poll result I don’t know how to interpret is the one where college students, especially conservatives, say they censor themselves on campus. Conservative politicians frequently quote such surveys to justify pushing universities to the right, as Ron DeSantis is doing in Florida.

But what does self-censorship mean in this context? If it means “I won’t say that I oppose abortion” or “I won’t express my doubts about affirmative action”, that’s concerning, because college students ought to be debating such issues and convincing each other via argument rather than shutting their fellow students up through peer pressure.

OTOH, if self-censorship means “I’ve stopped saying the N-word”, well, that’s the virtue known as tact. Mature adults learn to stifle the gratuitous insults that may pop into their minds.

One thing I hope all students are learning is what words other students take offense at. I was in high school before I discovered that Jews took offense at using Jew down to mean bargaining for a lower price. I had to censor myself until I lost the habit of saying it. I was out of college before I learned that gyp (cheating someone) is a slur on the Roma (i.e., Gypsies), or that welshing on a bet insults people from Wales.


The Atlantic writes a lengthy account of how Chris Licht tried to change CNN, and wound up with the debacle of Trump’s recent townhall meeting. David Roberts boils Licht’s mistake down to one paragraph.

CNN can’t be what he wants it to be as long as Trump & the GOP are what they are. It simply doesn’t work. You can’t report “just the facts” AND have a better relationship with Trump & his base. The two are incommensurate! It simply doesn’t work. The right is going to accuse CNN of being biased for the left unless & until it becomes Fox. That’s how the right has worked for decades now. You can’t report “just the facts” AND escape right-wing accusations of bias.

For reference, the Dominion lawsuit showed us how it works at Fox News. Here’s one producer texting another:

We can’t make people think we’ve turned against Trump. Yet also call out the bullshit. You and I see through it. But we have to reassure some in the audience.

If CNN wants to serve that audience, it will have to make the same choice not to call out the “bullshit” the audience wants to believe.


A study just published in the PNAS journal says that police stops of Black drivers that escalate from minor traffic violations to searches, handcuffings, and arrests diverge from other stops in the first few seconds. If the officer’s first statement is a command (“Keep your hands on the wheel.”) rather than a question or an explanation (“Do you know how fast you were going?”), the encounter is much more likely to escalate, even if the driver is cooperative.

The extreme example here is George Floyd.

We analyzed the first 27 seconds of Floyd’s encounter with police on that day. And we found that Floyd apologizes to the officers who stand outside his car window, Floyd requests the reason for the stop, he pleads, he explains, he follows orders, he expresses fear. Yet every response to Floyd is an order.

The study is based on police body-cam videos.

[The researchers] initially set out to look at patterns related to traffic stop escalation for white drivers too, but realized that it happened so infrequently for white drivers that there just weren’t sufficient numbers to even include them in the analysis.


The WaPo ordered the same takeout from the same restaurant four times, but did it four ways: through DoorDash, UberEats, GrubHub, and the restaurant itself. It then figured out how much money went to the restaurant, the driver, and the apps.

I found this to be discouraging reading: IMO the apps take way too much of the money, and yet the app companies are all posting losses. Meal delivery looks like an everybody-loses phenomenon.

and let’s close with something honest

June is wedding month, so you’re going to hear a lot of the same songs you hear at every wedding reception. (Or not. One reception I attended started with “All in Love is Fair”, which made me wonder what they were suggesting.) But what if you could change the lyrics to be more honest? The Holderness Family demonstrates.

Handle With Care

These past few years have given me a new appreciation for the fragility of our freedoms.

Ron DeSantis

Of course I am quoting the statement above ironically. What DeSantis has been doing in Florida these past few years is what’s been giving me a new appreciation for the fragility of our freedoms.

This week’s featured post is “Neglected policy issues I: Life expectancy“.

This week everybody was talking about the debt ceiling

Saturday, President Biden and Speaker McCarthy announced an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expects to be breached next Monday.

I haven’t read the bill’s 99-page text, so I’m relying on summaries of what the deal entails. In general, I agree with Josh Marshall:

Something like this set of concessions was more or less baked in the moment Republicans won control of the House.

In other words, Biden seems to have negotiated the kind of deal you would ordinarily expect between a president and speaker from different parties. It doesn’t look like McCarthy exacted any special ransom for threatening global economic catastrophe.

Assuming this agreement can be turned into law without further concessions, this has to be counted as a win for Biden.

BTW, this should be a moment of cognitive dissonance for Fox News watchers who hoped for more out of this deal. “You mean the guy with dementia bamboozled our guy?”

and the prospect of another Trump indictment

Numerous sources say that Special Counsel Jack Smith has wrapped up his investigation of the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case, and that an indictment is coming soon, i.e. sometime in June. A major reason to think so is that the grand jury hasn’t met since May 5, suggesting that Smith has all the testimony he needs and is writing an indictment.

If that’s true, it suggests that the Mar-a-Lago indictment will be separate from the January 6 indictment, if such an indictment is coming at all.

A major scoop from the WaPo indicates that the case for obstruction is very strong. Their report has Trump’s people moving boxes of documents the day before his lawyers (falsely) told a DoJ prosecutor and the FBI that the 35 documents they were turning over (in response to a subpoena) constituted the entire stash. It looks like Trump kept secrets from his lawyers so that they could make false statements to the government without intentionally lying.

Additionally, WaPo says Trump kept classified documents in his office and sometimes showed them to visitors.

The most explosive and most speculative line of investigation concerns Trump’s business relationships with foreign countries, including a lucrative contract from the new Saudi golf tour (LIV) to play tournaments at Trump’s courses (including one this weekend). Did the Saudis pay him to get, say, information on Iran’s missile programs? That would be espionage.

But as I keep saying, it’s a mistake to invest too much energy in speculation. If an indictment really is coming soon, we’ll be able to read it and see what’s in it for ourselves.


The conventional wisdom says that an indictment won’t matter politically, because nothing matters to Trump’s supporters. Reporters are constantly talking to various Trump voters, who keep telling them that another indictment or two won’t change their mind about him.

But I wonder if that’s true. Right now, a Mar-a-Lago or Georgia or January 6 indictment is just an idea. But when those indictments drop, they will tell stories. And stories are more powerful than mere ideas. Right now, his cultists can say, “I don’t care if Trump had some classified documents. Biden and Pence had them too. So what?” But it would be much more difficult to say, “I don’t care if Trump showed classified documents to the Saudis in exchange for golf money” (if that’s what the indictment says).

If the cult does start to turn, it won’t happen via former supporters speaking out against him. Instead, they will just go silent. People you would expect to defend him will instead change the subject.


Another indication an indictment might be coming is that Trump’s lawyers sent a letter to Attorney General Garland requesting a meeting. I don’t put much stock in this sign, because the letter clearly wasn’t serious. It was written for public distribution and not to persuade Garland to do anything.

No president of the United States has ever, in the history of our country, been baselessly investigated in such outrageous and unlawful fashion.

That’s political rhetoric more likely to anger Garland than to make him sympathize. What’s the point of meeting with Trump’s lawyers to hear more nonsense like that?


The Oath Keepers convicted in November of seditious conspiracy related to January 6 were sentenced this week. Leader Stewart Rhodes got 18 years. Other conspirators got lesser sentences that were still substantial.

Again, the significance of the three seditious conspiracy trials (all resulting in convictions) is that juries have been convinced that January 6 was not just a mob that got out of control. Somebody intended the mob to do what it did. One of those somebodies was Stewart Rhodes, but it’s very unlikely he was at the top of the chain.

and Ron DeSantis’ glitchy campaign launch

After a technical delay of around 20 minutes, Ron DeSantis officially announced his candidacy during a live Twitter interview with Elon Musk. DeSantis supporters made a big deal about the 300K viewers, which nearly crashed Twitter’s diminished infrastructure. But 3 million watched Trump’s CNN town hall a few weeks ago, and 400K watched AOC play a video game over Twitch in 2020.


DeSantis said a lot of false and/or misleading stuff. For example, when challenged on Florida schools removing books from their classrooms and libraries because of his Don’t Say Gay and STOP Woke Acts, he deflected onto the left, saying that liberals were banning To Kill a Mockingbird. Here, DeSantis is doing a much worse version of what he accuses the media of doing: calling something a ban that is really a much less serious restriction.

I can’t say whether this is a complete view of the topic, but if you google “ban on To Kill a Mockingbird” and look for liberal examples, what comes up is a Washington school district deciding to stop requiring the book for ninth graders, which makes perfect sense. If you assume a required-reading list has a limited number of spaces for novels about the Jim Crow era, it makes sense to shift to one by a Black author with a Black central character. But TKaMB remains available in school libraries and can be assigned by teachers who make that choice.


Just a coincidence, I’m sure:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) signed a bill regarding spaceflight on Thursday just one day after he announced his presidential run in a glitch-filled interview with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces. … Florida is a known launching point for [Musk-owned] SpaceX aircrafts, and the new law could potentially shield Musk and other space flight companies from being sued for accidents that injure or kill crew members. …

Last month, SpaceX’s privately owned spaceport in South Texas launched the most powerful rocket ever built before the spacecraft exploded over the Gulf of Mexico. The explosion reportedly hurled chunks of concrete and metal thousands of feet away into sensitive habitat, and sparked a 3.5-acre fire on state park lands near the launch site.

Or maybe, coupled with his war against Disney, it tells us about DeSantis’ theory of government: Use government power to reward your friends and punish your enemies. If Musk turns against DeSantis, this favor from the State of Florida could be revoked, the way DeSantis has tried to revoke Disney’s special taxing district.

Along the same lines: NBC reports that Florida state employees are soliciting DeSantis campaign contributions from lobbyists.

NBC News spoke with 10 Republican lobbyists in Florida, all of whom said they couldn’t remember being solicited for donations so overtly by administration officials — especially at a time when the governor still has to act on the state budget.

That process that involves DeSantis using his line-item veto pen to slash funding for projects that the same lobbyists whom they are asking for political cash have a professional stake in. Most of the lobbyists said they felt pressure to give to the governor’s campaign.

“What the f— am I supposed to do?” one lobbyist said. “I have a lot of business in front of the DeSantis administration.”

and Ken Paxton’s impeachment

Apparently there are limits, even for MAGA politicians. Saturday the Texas House impeached Attorney General Ken Paxton “on articles including bribery and abuse of public trust”. Trump and Ted Cruz support him, but the vote was 121-23.

Paxton will be suspended from office while the Texas Senate hears his case.

and you also might be interested in …

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a run-off election yesterday, netting himself a third term in office. In the run-up to the election, there was some hope that an Erdogan defeat might mark a global turning away from autocratic rulers. But it was not to be.


President Biden announced a national strategy for combating antisemitism. Rep. Lauren Boebert complained that Biden will “go after conservatives”.

Conservatives get closer and closer to just admitting that they’re bad guys. A few weeks ago, Senator Tommy Tuberville took offense at Biden wanting to get White nationalists out of the military. “They call them [White nationalists]. I call them Americans.” In a later interview he dug in deeper. “I look at a white nationalist as a Trump Republican. That’s what we’re called all the time. A MAGA Person.”

If he thinks that characterization is unjust, i.e., if sees any difference between a Trump Republican and an actual White nationalist, Tuberville didn’t explain what it was.


Of course, sometimes liberals also own the negative labels people throw at them. The Satanic Temple is running the Samuel Alito’s Mom’s Satanic Abortion Clinic out of New Mexico, providing telehealth abortion services nationwide, particularly to states where abortion is illegal. As the Temple says:

The Satanic Temple, on behalf of its members, objects to government interference with abortion access and contests that laws that impede our faith in bodily autonomy and our ability to perform our Religious Abortion Ritual violate the First Amendment and the Religious Freedom Restoration Act.

TST Health’s first telehealth clinic will provide medication for safe abortions through the mail for members and for those who wish to perform TST’s Abortion Ritual. The goal of this first clinic is to allow our members to have access to safe and legal abortions, no matter where they live or what their financial situation may be.

One of the manifest hypocrisies of conservative legal activism is pushing a notion of “religious freedom” that really only applies to Christians, and in practice grants them special rights. TST is the most out-there group pushing for equality of religious freedom: If Christians have all these rights, explain to us why Satanists don’t.


Target has removed some Pride-month merchandise from its stores and moved other items to less prominent locations in response to objections and threats from conservatives

As Target explained in a statement, some customers had knocked down Pride displays at stores while others outraged by Pride-themed merchandise angrily approached workers as well as posted threatening videos on social media. Target has been celebrating Pride month for a decade, but as the company noted, “Since introducing this year’s collection, we’ve experienced threats impacting our team members’ sense of safety and wellbeing while at work.”

Targets in several states subsequently received bomb threats appearing to come from Pride supporters angry about the pullback, but these appear to be hoaxes that originated overseas.

What’s not a hoax is the violence-themed rhetoric right-wing pundits have been directing at Target. 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said that Target had “put a target on its back”. Charlie Kirk said “the only thing they understand is force. Pain is a teacher”. No doubt if they were challenged, each would deny promoting literal violence, but they have to know that some portion of their audience will take it that way.


If you’re wondering what’s supposed to be so terrible about Target’s pride display, the Heritage Foundation produced this video tour of Target’s Pride section to outrage you. Strangely, though, I’m not outraged — at least not at Target.

Heritage’s claim is that Target is pushing LGBTQ messages at young consumers, who presumably go in as blank slates without any opinions or intentions or identities of their own. It’s a weird point of view for a group that ordinarily is so pro-capitalist. Obviously, Target puts stuff out there because the corporation expects to sell it, and not because Target has some sinister agenda about “grooming” children to be gay or trans.

If you think the products have some negative effect on society — I don’t in this case — well, that’s capitalism, isn’t it? Exxon sells fossil fuels and Colt sells AR-15s. Those products have negative effects on society, but I suspect the corporations sell them to make money rather than because of some pact with Satan.

Case in point: a teen-sized sweatshirt that says “Not a Phase”. The narrator interprets this as Target “grooming” kids into believing they won’t grow out of their “gender confusion”. This woman clearly has no memory of being a teen-ager and (whatever you happened to be into) being fed up with condescending adults. The shirt expresses a timeless teen attitude, and I see why Target expects to sell a lot of them.


Back when Parkland-massacre-survivor David Hogg was starting his gun-control activism, Fox News host Laura Ingraham mocked him for being rejected by four colleges, because she’s classy that way. This week he graduated from Harvard.

Hey @IngrahamAngle you can send my graduation present to: http://Marchforourlives.com/donate


The Supreme Court took power away from the EPA this week by reading the Clean Water Act narrowly. The immediate result is that some wetlands will lose protection, but the precedent may have larger implications. The case deserves more attention than I’ve been able to give it.


Tina Turner died Wednesday at the age of 83.

and let’s close with something natural

The Nature Conservancy has an annual photo contest. This is one of the winners in the “Plants and Fungi” category. These are Dragon Blood Trees. The story behind the tree’s name isn’t all I was hoping for: apparently it has red sap.

Free to Dominate, Free to Control

Roosevelt’s four freedoms were the building blocks of a humane society — a social democratic aspiration for egalitarians then and now. These Republican freedoms are also building blocks not of a humane society but of a rigid and hierarchical one, in which you can either dominate or be dominated.

– Jamelle Bouie, “The Four Freedoms, according to Republicans

This week’s featured posts are “Summing Up at the End of the Trump/Russia Investigations” and “How I Evaluate Sources“.

But if you only read one essay this week, it should be the Jamelle Bouie column quoted above. He looks at the agenda that is passing in red-state legislatures and synthesizes four Republican “freedoms”:

  • Freedom to control, manifested in state control of women’s uteruses,
  • Freedom to exploit, represented by the rollback of child labor laws,
  • Freedom to censor, exemplified by book banning and preventing schools and universities from teaching about systemic racism and other forms of oppression,
  • Freedom to menace, demonstrated by laws allowing guns to be carried anywhere, openly or under concealment, and used whenever the bearer feels threatened.

More about this below.

This week everybody was talking about the debt ceiling

It’s hard to know what to say. In some sense, it’s the most important thing happening. But whatever negotiations are or aren’t happening between President Biden and Speaker McCarthy are behind closed doors, so we don’t really know anything.

It’s also hard to guess what the negotiating positions would mean, even if we knew them. Democrats are worrying that Biden will give away the store and get nothing back other than a promise not to blow up the world economy until next spring.

Americans of either party should worry about whether McCarthy can make a deal at all. Maybe anything he agrees to will be framed by Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz as a RINO sell-out, and lead to McCarthy losing his speakership rather than to a deal.

And finally, does Biden have a Plan B? Could he circumvent the debt ceiling via the 14th Amendment? Or by citing the contradiction between the debt-ceiling and that appropriation bills Congress has passed? Or by minting a platinum coin or selling consol bonds?

There are reasons to worry that this partisan Supreme Court will nix those options, independent of what the laws actually say. (Though I don’t see any grounds for objecting to consol bonds or less radical high-interest bonds that would sell above par.)

But all the Plan Bs sound gimmicky, and like an expansion of executive power. Biden will be in better political shape to invoke one if he can argue that he has been driven to his last resort; he did in fact did offer deep concessions that Republicans did not accept, and came to the conclusion that no deal with McCarthy was possible.

So if Biden offers concessions, is he giving away the store or setting up a deft counter-move? There’s no way to know.

and the red states’ continued decline into oppression and authoritarianism

Thursday morning, The New York Times greeted me with these headlines:

Just another day in red America. Remember when the GOP was supposed to be about Freedom? Each of those three bills is Big Government telling people how to live their lives.

Other headlines I saw this week:

  • School librarians face a new penalty in the banned-book wars: Prison. “One example is an Arkansas measure that says school and public librarians, as well as teachers, can be imprisoned for up to six years or fined $10,000 if they distribute obscene or harmful texts. It takes effect Aug. 1.” The terms obscene and harmful are, of course, undefined. So a prudent librarian will steer clear of any book that any judge might object to — or if the librarian wants to avoid a court case altogether, avoiding any book that any parent might object to.
  • School Can Force Trans Girl to Dress as Boy for Graduation, Judge Rules. “A federal judge ruled late Friday evening that the Harrison County [Mississippi] School District can prohibit a 17-year-old transgender girl from attending her graduation Saturday unless she dresses in attire designated for boys” Tim Miller‘s summary: “The government preventing parents from seeing their child graduate unless they wear state mandated pants.”
  • The Short Life of Baby Milo. Deborah Dorbert knew for three months that the fetus she was carrying had no chance to live, because it lacked essential organs. But Florida’s abortion ban forced her to complete the doomed pregnancy. Her son was born and lived 99 minutes.
  • The staggering fine print of Texas and Florida’s new anti-trans bills. “Chriss laid out a scenario in which [the new Florida law] would apply: A family is living in California, which doesn’t have a ban on gender-affirming care. A parent contesting custody of their child could take them on vacation to Disney World in Orlando, go to the nearby Orange County courthouse, and ask the judge to take emergency jurisdiction over the custody case because the other parent is planning to help the child get puberty blockers.”

The outrageous attacks on personal freedom and parental rights are coming so fast that I’m sure I missed a few.

but here’s something I’ve been meaning to tell you

Namely, how I assess unfamiliar sources.

and you also might be interested in …

Wednesday, House Republicans refused to vote on a motion to remove George Santos from Congress.


Dahlia Lithwick asks an important question: What if reporters covered the Supreme Court the way they cover every other branch of government?

Her point, in short, is that reporters on the Supreme Court beat act as if they are covering the Law itself, not a public institution made up of nine immensely powerful human beings.

[T]he longstanding tradition of covering the cases rather than the Justices meant that, with few exceptions, there have not been a lot of folks in the SCOTUS press corps on the Clarence/Ginni Thomas beat; almost nobody on the Dobbs leak beat; and, aside from routinely reporting the fact of plummeting polling numbers, few court insiders on the “legitimacy beat.” With the notable exception of Politico’s Josh Gerstein, who co-reported the Dobbs leak last year, virtually all of the scoops about Clarence Thomas’ ethical breaches, Leonard Leo’s golden spigot, the rich donor to Supreme Court Historical Society pipeline, Ginni Thomas’ election disruption efforts and the catastrophic leak investigation all came from enterprising investigative reporters, political reporters and “outsiders” at Politico, Pro Publica, and the New York Times.

… But it’s not just that we mostly settle for covering the cases. We further let the cases set the agenda for what we consider “justice.” If the nine Justices decide to revisit affirmative action, and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, and federal preemption around labor disputes, we’ll then devote a year to debating both sides of these legal issues—regardless of the fact that they were supposed to be long settled. As long as the court thought it was a good time to breathe life into the Major Questions Doctrine or the Independent State Legislature Theory, we have considered the questions of that theory seriously, despite its manifest unseriousness. And once the Supreme Court started to invent its own facts—as it did in the Coach Kennedy case last term, the affirmative action cases this term, and of course 303 Creative, the refusal of service to same sex couples case, also this term—it began to matter urgently that the press would still routinely be covering “cases” as usual, even though these cases included wholly imaginary “facts”—or, as in 303 Creative, no facts at all. Repeating manufactured narratives with which the court will eventually manufacture legal doctrine serves the Court’s interest. The problem is that it does not serve the interests of the public, and that’s who journalists are supposed to be writing for.


The headline from Noelle Dunphy’s $10 million lawsuit against Rudy Giuliani was her accusation that he boasted about selling pardons for $2 million each.

[Giuliani] also asked Ms. Dunphy if she knew anyone in need of a pardon, telling her that he was selling pardons for $2 million, which he and President Trump would split. He told Ms. Dunphy that she could refer individuals seeking pardons to him, so long as they did not go through “the normal channels” of the Office of the Pardon Attorney, because correspondence going to that office would be subject to disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act.

But when you read the 70-page complaint, that is far from the worst of it. (Even if she can support that claim, he could counter that he was just talking big to impress her.) The complaint makes sickening reading. It paints Dunphy as a vulnerable woman coming out of an abusive relationship. Giuliani lures her by promising a huge salary ($1 million per year) and that he will represent her against her abuser. He then starts his own abusive sexual relationship with her, comes up with excuses to “defer” the vast majority of her pay, strings her along without a formal employment agreement for two years, and then fires her without paying the salary or fulfilling any of his other promises.

She claims to have recorded many of their conversations (including one where he gives her permission to record their conversations), and that (because her job including managing his email) she has his email files, including emails from long before her employment.

And if you’re wondering how Giuliani’s judgment could be that bad, Dunphy has a ready explanation: He was drunk almost the entire time he employed her.

If any of that is true, Giuliani should just find the $10 million and not let this go to court.


Giuliani faces another lawsuit, a defamation suit filed by two Georgia poll workers whom Giuliani baselessly accused of election fraud. Friday, the judge ordered Giuliani to provide a detailed accounting of his net worth, which is never a good sign.


My Pillow founder Mike Lindell isn’t just delusional about the 2020 election, he also doesn’t pay his bets. (I looked for a word that packs the same punch as “welsher” without demeaning any ethnic group, but I didn’t find one.) In 2021, Lindell was claiming he had computer data proving that the Chinese had interfered in the 2020 election, and he seemed to back up his claim by offering a $5 million Prove-Mike-Wrong challenge. But now that he has lost that challenge, he won’t pay up.

Cyber-detective Robert Zeidman quickly did prove Mike wrong.

Coming to this conclusion this apparently wasn’t all that hard. Some of the data, Zeidman recently told the Las Vegas Review-Journal, looked like someone had simply typed random numbers; another data set had been created just days before the contest, not before the 2020 election, which was pretty obvious given that creation dates on the files had not been altered.

Lindell is not a computer expert himself, so one likely explanation is that he was conned by fraudsters who sold him the “proof” he wanted to believe existed. Marks often get emotionally invested in the con they’ve fallen for, and typically are the last people to grasp what has happened. Successful businessmen like Lindell can be perfect targets for conmen, because they really, really don’t want to believe they are suckers.

The rules of his contest stipulated binding arbitration on claims, and the arbitration panel selected by a Lindell company ruled in Zeidman’s favor in April. But Lindell is still refusing to pay, so this week Zeidman took his case to federal court.

Zeidman may have to get in line to collect, though, because Lindell is also being sued by Dominion Voting Systems for his lies about their role in the 2020 election. One reason Fox News had to settle with Dominion for $787 million was that Tucker Carlson gave Lindell an uncritical platform to spew his baseless allegations.


David Roberts links to AP’s “2024 Republican hopefuls rush to defend Marine who put NYC subway rider in fatal chokehold” and then comments:

I wonder how much evidence will have to accumulate before “objective” reporters are allowed to take note of the *pattern* of rapidly rising support for vigilante violence on the right. And then they could go a step further and connect the rising support for vigilante violence with the relentless push to get more guns into circulation. And then they could go eve[n] further and connect the support for vigilante violence & the push for more guns with the declining demographics that make winning via democratic means increasingly difficult.


The Washington Post asked people attending a gun show why they wanted guns. Nearly all the answers contained the word protection.

[O]ver and over, people told me they needed their guns to keep themselves safe. Safe from what? Most couldn’t answer; they simply had a feeling that the world had become a more dangerous place. … Republican leaders, including Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, have resisted calls for increased gun regulation after shooting deaths, arguing that the root problem is mental illness. But the paranoia that fuels gun-buying has come to seem like a mental health issue in its own right.


The New Yorker visits the Gathering of Thought Criminals, a New York salon for those who “simply feel persecuted for holding unpopular opinions”. Apparently, if you profess ideas that most people deem objectionable, and they dare to object, then you’ve been “cancelled” and are entitled to sympathy.

Meanwhile, Florida parents who want their child to receive gender-affirming care can now have that child taken away. Is there a salon for them somewhere?


Jim Brown died Thursday night at the age of 87. He was arguably the greatest running back in NFL history. In 2010, NFL Network ranked him #2 on a list of the greatest NFL players ever, behind only Jerry Rice. (At that time, Tom Brady had only three of his seven Super Bowl wins, and was ranked #21.)

Brown also had social significance as a key member of the second generation of Black athletes in the national spotlight. The first generation, led by Jackie Robinson and Joe Louis, had mostly kept their heads down, avoided making waves, and let their performance do the talking. The second generation, led by Brown, Bill Russell, and (a few years later) Muhammad Ali, could be more outspoken, and were frequently portrayed in the media as troublemakers.

Today, the NFL is a quarterback’s league and runners only rarely make headlines. But in Brown’s era, the NFL was a runner’s league, and he was the best anyone had ever seen. Here are some highlights. (Copyright issues aren’t letting me embed the video.)

and let’s close with something from down under

Normally, I pick a closing to be amusing and not at all political. This one does involve a political issue, but I’m hoping it’s amusing enough to get by. Australia, the video claims, has all kinds of deadly dangers. But at least it doesn’t have AR-15s.

No Time for Truth

We don’t have enough time to fact-check every lie he told.

Jake Tapper, hosting the wrap-up of Trump’s CNN town hall

This week’s featured posts are “Why the Carroll verdict might matter” and “Normalizing Trump normalizes political violence“.

This week everybody was talking about the border

Title 42 was always a pretext. At a time when Trump was denying the seriousness of the Covid epidemic, his administration invoked a public-health law from 1944 as an excuse to stop migrants from legally seeking asylum in the United States.

At the same time, our system for processing asylum seekers is swamped, and Congress has refused to fix it. So the Biden administration, believing it had no better option, continued the policy until Thursday night, when the government’s declaration of a Covid emergency officially lapsed.

Ending the policy resulted in a surge of people crossing the border from Mexico, though apparently not quite as large a surge as had been expected. Resources to deal with migrants have been strained, particularly in border communities like El Paso, but also in Northern cities like New York or Chicago, where migrants often end up while they wait for their asylum cases to be adjudicated.

and George Santos

George Santos leaped into the headlines after being elected to Congress in 2022, because his entire biography was almost comically false. Now he’s been indicted for a variety of crimes. One charge is that he created a false campaign PAC and got people to donate to it, then used the money for personal purposes. Another is that he falsely claimed unemployment payments while making a six-figure salary.

The indictment had the same comical quality as most Santos news. Reading it, you have to wonder why he thought he could get away with any of this.

Speaker Kevin McCarthy is refusing to ask Santos to resign from Congress, because he represents a swing district in New York that could easily go for a Democrat in a special election.


If you’re not following North Carolina Rep. Jeff Jackson, you should be. He blogs and posts a video on Twitter every week, describing what’s going on in Congress in a very down-to-Earth way. Here’s what he says about the Santos situation:

Normally, if one of your co-workers gets arrested for a bunch of felonies related to their job, they don’t get to just come back to the office the next day. But he did, and it was really weird.

and the Carroll verdict

A jury in New York federal court found Donald Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation. It awarded his accuser E. Jean Carroll, $5 million in damages. I discuss the implications of that verdict in one of the featured posts.

Trump’s attempt to spin the verdict focused on two things: The jury did not rule that Carroll had proved Trump raped her, and “you can’t get a fair trial” in New York City.

As he did with Russian collusion in the Mueller report, Trump is claiming vindication when in reality there just wasn’t enough evidence to condemn him. The jury did not say Trump hadn’t raped Carroll, just that she hadn’t proved it. The sexual assault was enough to invoke the damage claim, so I imagine there was not a big effort to reach unanimity on the rape claim.

The verdict makes a certain amount of sense when you consider the evidence presented. On the Access Hollywood tape, Trump confessed to a pattern of sexual assault — grabbing women “by the pussy” — but didn’t confess to rape. And the two witnesses who described being attacked by Trump told about attacks that were interrupted. So the rape claim was a purer he-said/she-said case, while sexual assault had more support.

Still, as I talk about in the featured post, being guilty of sexual assault is nothing to brag about.

Trump is appealing to federal appellate court. (The case was already in the federal court system, because the two parties were from different states.) But an appeal is not an automatic do-over. He’ll have to convince the appellate court that the original judge’s rulings were illegal in some way.

and CNN’s Trump town hall

The day after being found liable for sexual assault and defamation, Trump appeared on CNN with an audience of New Hampshire voters who had been pre-selected to be favorable to him. I discuss that in one of the featured posts.


For the most part, Republicans haven’t been willing to go after Trump, despite all the material lying around in plain sight. But Liz Cheney narrates this anti-Trump ad.

and you also might be interested in …

The Ukrainian spring offensive may be starting, as Ukrainian forces gain territory around Bakhmut. But so far it’s slow going.


The House Oversight Committee released a 65-page memo about its investigations of the Biden family, which so far have been a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.

The House GOP accused Joe Biden and his family on Wednesday of engaging in business with foreign entities—but were unable to provide any actual evidence linking the president to any wrongdoing.

House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer released a 65-page memo detailing a sprawling investigation into Biden and some of his relatives, particularly his son Hunter Biden. Nowhere in the massive document was there a specific allegation of a crime committed by Biden or any of his relatives. During a press conference explaining the investigation, Comer was asked if he had evidence directly linking Biden to corruption. The Kentucky Republican hemmed and hawed but ultimately admitted he didn’t.


[As a commenter pointed out below, I have confused two cases: Daniel Penny is the guy who killed Jordan Neely in New York. Daniel Perry is the guy in Texas who killed a protester during a Black Lives Matter protest. Both cases are discussed in Jamelle Bouie’s NYT column Tuesday.]

Conservatives are defending Daniel Penny (the guy who killed homeless man Jordan Neely on the New York subway) as a “Good Samaritan”. (Examples: Ron DeSantis, National Police Association.)

It’s one more example of making the Bible say whatever you want. Anyone who knows and respects the Bible ought to respond similarly to David Roberts:

No way to exaggerate how fucked up and dystopian it is that the reactionaries are transmuting the parable of the Good Samaritan from “he helps the person having problems” to “he kills the person having problems but who’s making everyone else uncomfortable.”

Penny has been charged with manslaughter. Here’s the background on the story.

At this point there’s no way to quantify what race might have had to do with this incident and people’s reactions to it. (Neely was Black, Penny is White.) But if anybody is wondering what “Black Lives Matter” is supposed to mean, this is it: OK, Neely was creating an incident on the subway, though he had not actually attacked anybody. There’s an argument to be made for someone stepping in to restrain Neely until some authority takes charge of the situation. But restraining Neely with a chokehold until he dies is only a “solution” if Neely’s life doesn’t matter.

Maybe Neely being Black had nothing to do with why his life didn’t matter. Maybe it was because his behavior was outside normal subway behavior, or some other reason. But if Neely’s life did matter to Perry, he’d have handled the situation differently.


Turkey had an election yesterday. President Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003, has been accused of instituting one-man rule. But it looks like Turkey is not so far gone towards autocracy that he can’t be voted out.

The upshot seems to be that no one got a majority of the vote, so Erdogan will face a runoff later this month.


A sidebar to the Turkish election is Twitter giving in to the Erdogan government’s demands to censor opposition tweets.

In response to legal process and to ensure Twitter remains available to the people of Turkey, we have taken action to restrict access to some content in Turkey today.

Elon Musk defended the decision by making a lesser-evil argument:

The choice is have Twitter throttled in its entirety or limit access to some tweets. Which one do you want?

Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales answered that question:

What Wikipedia did: we stood strong for our principles and fought to the Supreme Court of Turkey and won. This is what it means to treat freedom of expression as a principle rather than a slogan.

And Matt Binder points out:

Twitter used to routinely challenge Turkey’s takedown requests. Erdogan actually had Twitter banned in Turkey in 2014 for refusing to comply. (the courts later ended the ban.) but that was on the “censorship” version of Twitter, not this new “free speech” one

I’ll add this: An authoritarian government can always use its power to manipulate lesser-evil thinking. No matter what it wants you to do, it can make something worse happen if you refuse.

And maybe it’s just a coincidence that another Musk company, SpaceX, has a business relationship with Erdogan’s government.


Are you conservative? Do you think America has gotten too “woke” to be livable? Good news: Russia wants you!


In general, Grist is a good source for environmental news. Here’s an interesting article about green steel, i.e., steel produced without fossil fuels.


Relating to the normalization issues discussed above: Joe Biden should not debate unless and until a more legitimate challenger emerges. Currently, only RFK Jr. and Marianne Williamson have announced their candidacy. RFK Jr., in particular, is someone who should not be normalized. He is an endless font of anti-vax misinformation, from his vaccines-cause-autism days to more recent lies about Covid vaccines. He shamelessly repeats stuff that has been authoritatively debunked, and keeps misquoting scientists after they’ve asked him to stop. Watch SkepChick’s RFK Jr. takedown.

In general, sitting presidents running for re-election don’t participate in debates. There’s an argument for Biden breaking that tradition in order to challenge the perception that age has addled him. And I could see that if it meant sharing a stage with candidates of stature, like say, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California Governor Gavin Newsom, or maybe Elizabeth Warren. But he shouldn’t give a platform to RFK Jr at all, and I don’t see what he gains by debating Williamson.


From the MAGA translation of the New Testament:

and let’s close with something adorable

An animal rescue shelter found Nibi when she was a week old. She’s never seen another beaver, but she seems to know how to build dams.