Category Archives: Weekly summaries

Each week, a short post that links to the other posts of the week.

Dividends of Democracy

This trial could never have happened in the countries Trump admires. No
one can hold Xi, Putin, Orban, Erdogan, Lukashenko, or any other of
these vile strongmen accountable. This is why we invest in democracy and
work to uphold it when it is being attacked.

Ruth Ben-Ghiat

This week’s featured posts is “Trump is Guilty“.

This week everybody was talking about the Trump verdict

I cover that in the featured post. There are a few common questions I didn’t get to.

Can Trump continue running for president now that he’s a felon? Yes. There’s precedent: In 1920, Socialist candidate Eugene Debs got a million votes for president while he was in prison. He was serving a 10-year sentence for an anti-World-War-I speech he gave in 1917, which the government claimed violated the Espionage Act.

Could he take office? I don’t see why not. The Constitution‘s list of qualifications for the presidency is pretty short and says nothing about being a criminal. (The Founders certainly imagined the possibility of a criminal getting elected president — hence the provision of impeachment — but I doubt they pictured someone whose criminality was already known getting elected.)

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

Could this actually help him? These days, MAGA folks tend towards confident bluster and Democrats tend towards doom-saying, so people from both sides are likely to predict that conviction will give Trump a boost. But I doubt it. If Trump getting convicted makes you like him more, you were probably already voting for him.

About half the country didn’t expect him to get convicted, and those are the people to watch. Particularly important are the folks who hadn’t been paying a lot of attention to the Trump trials. To a lot of them, I imagine this had been sounding like the usual political attacks: something opponents say that never comes to anything, like the Biden impeachment effort in the House. This actually arrived at a conviction, which makes it a bit different. It also should make people re-evaluate the other charges against Trump: Maybe they’re true too.

In particular, the idea that Blacks will be more attracted to Trump now that he’s a felon seems based on a stereotypic and demeaning view of Black people.


Yesterday on Meet the Press, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was asked a simple question and (in contrast to Republicans asked about the Trump verdict) gave a simple answer.

PETER ALEXANDER: Congressman Jeffries, Donald Trump’s attorney, as you’ve certainly heard, said that they will appeal the verdict. If it is overturned on appeal, will you accept that result?

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES: Yes.

and Justice Alito

To no one’s surprise, Justice Alito announced in a letter to Senators Durbin and Whitehouse that he will not recuse himself from January 6 related cases. He responded to both of the recently-revealed flag incidents by putting the responsibility on his wife (“My wife is fond of flying flags. I am not.”) and claiming that

A reasonable person who is not motivated by political or ideological considerations or a desire to affect the outcome of Supreme Court cases would conclude that this event does not meet the applicable standard for recusal.

Josh Marshall comments:

This is not how federal ethics guidelines work. They make very clear that the appearance of a conflict of interest or impropriety, for these purposes, counts as much as actual ones. They also make clear that the actions of a spouse count toward creating such appearances even though, certainly in the early 21st century, a judge can’t dictate a spouse’s actions. The ethics guidelines specifically deal with the spouse issue. And they say “it’s my spouse, not me” isn’t a defense. … Alito is a smart guy. He knows this.

So while Alito’s wife has every right to express her political views, even treasonous ones, her actions have consequences for her husband. Alito is refusing to accept those consequences. (Imagine the outcry if Justice Jackson drove to court displaying a Black Lives Matter bumper sticker, and then said, “It’s my husband’s car.”)

In addition, Marshall notes, Alito has now told multiple versions of the flag story, at least some of which must be lies. In responding to the controversy, he sought out a friendly reporter at a partisan venue (Fox News) — something a politician might do, but a justice shouldn’t.

Alito’s reaction to this controversy has been sullen, defensive, mendacious and overtly partisan. Those are all total nonstarters for how a justice is supposed to conduct himself or herself. He does it because he’s corrupt and he’s confident in his impunity.

In an idealistic vision of the judiciary, recusal is not that big a deal: Your responsibility to rule impartially passes to the other justices, who presumably are also impartial. But this clearly is not Alito’s vision: He is a member of a political faction, and it is important that he be there to deliver his vote.

and other legal news

A federal judge just struck down a New Hampshire law that comes out of the same conservative flurry that gave us Florida’s Don’t-Say-Gay and Stop-WOKE laws.

New Hampshire prohibited public employees, including public school teachers, from promoting “divisive concepts” related to race or gender. A parent who felt the law had been violated could sue, and offending teachers could lose their licenses to teach in the state.

In April 2022, a New Hampshire parent complained that Alison O’Brien, a high school social studies teacher, violated the divisive concepts law by showing two videos — “Formation” by Beyoncé and “This is America” by Childish Gambino — as part of a unit on the Harlem Renaissance. … The parent who complained claimed the music videos were “offensive,” too focused “on the oppression of just one group,” and “not a balanced view of history.”

Fortunately, a federal judge has objected.

[District Judge Paul J.] Barbadoro, citing the experience of O’Brien and other teachers, ruled that the law was unconstitutionally vague. The law represents “viewpoint-based restrictions on speech” but does not “provide either fair warning to educators of what they prohibit or sufficient standards for law enforcement to prevent arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement.” As such, it violates the due process protections of the 14th Amendment.


Since May 21, Trump has been claiming that when the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago in August, 2022, they were really there to assassinate him, a claim Politifact has rated as a pants-on-fire lie.

Special Counsel Jack Smith is concerned about the danger this and similar lies pose to the FBI agents involved in the search, some of whom would be witnesses in the Mar-a-Lago documents trial, assuming Judge Cannon ever allows that trial to take place. (The process Smith worries about is called stochastic terrorism, which Wikipedia defines as “when a political or media figure publicly demonizes a person or group in a way that inspires supporters of the figure to commit a violent act against the target of the communication”.)

Last week, Smith filed a motion asking Cannon to amend Trump’s terms of release, to prevent him from making this claim. Cannon denied that motion on procedural grounds. Smith has now refiled it in a way that satisfies Cannon’s objections.

Predictably, Cannon is slow-walking the motion.


Another Trump-appointed judge is slow-walking Steven Bannon’s prison sentence. Bannon has been convicted of contempt of Congress and sentenced to four months in prison. He was released pending his appeal, which has now been rejected. But the judge still hasn’t ordered him to report to prison.

and two thought-provoking articles

Rick Perlstein is the leading historian of the modern conservative movement, from Barry Goldwater to (so far) Ronald Reagan. He has an article in The American Prospect that is interesting both for its ideas and for what it says about the current political mood.

The interesting idea concerns the question: Why does conservatism keep getting worse? There could be a long discussion about what “worse” means in this context, but intuitively you already know: Barry Goldwater lost graciously. Dick Nixon’s administration was a mixture of good and bad. (For example, he signed the Clean Air Act.) Ronald Reagan generally maintained a high level of decorum. George W. Bush tried to avoid a post-9-11 pogrom against American Muslims. And so on. I’ve had many moments when I looked at something Trump was doing and wished I had one of those past conservative leaders back.

Perlstein thinks the reason is something he calls “the authoritarian rachet”.

Its axioms are that the basic thing conservatism promises to its adherents, a return of society to a prelapsarian state, is impossible; but that this impossible thing, in the logic of conservatism, is also imperative to achieve, lest civilization collapse, and good people suffer a kind of living death.

So each time conservatives win, they nonetheless fail, because the impossible things don’t happen. (Donald Trump did not bring back the “great again” era of the 1950s or the 1920s or whenever you thought America was greatest.) So the next time conservatism gains power, it will have to try even harder.

This is why I now describe the history of conservatism as a ratchet. It must always move in an invariably more authoritarian direction, with no possible end point but an apocalyptic one.

Just listen to any recent Donald Trump speech: The redemptive promises he makes are more insanely fantastical with each passing day. Imagine the disappointment their serial failures will bring in their wake, which can never redound on him. (Conservatism never fails …) They must instead be blamed on the Enemy.

Which is us.

That is why another Trump term—or the potential insurgency after a Trump defeat—may be traumatic beyond our poor powers to imagine it.

But Perlstein’s article is also about his personal depression, which he claims is brought on by the Left, not the Right: Perlstein is frustrated by his inability to convince progressives to put aside their very real differences with Biden in order to avoid the catastrophe of a second (and necessarily worse) Trump administration.

What it comes down to, I guess, is this. If I of all people can’t convince people on the left to fight right-wing authoritarians who consider them veritable Untermenschen, then what the hell have I been wasting half my life on this work for?


The other article I want to call your attention to is Cory Doctorow’s “A Major Defeat for Technofeudalism” from last fall. (It sometimes takes a while for me to notice things.)

Ostensibly, he’s writing about patent trolls, the people who claim ownership of basic technological ideas that nobody else had thought to patent, and then harass anybody who uses those ideas, looking for royalty payments. But the article is more interesting for its theoretical framing: Doctorow calls attention to a piece of the class struggle we ordinarily don’t think about: not the battle between capital and labor, but the battle between two factions in the ruling class: capitalists and rentiers.

Basically, capitalists make money by producing things to sell at a profit, while rentiers make money by owning things they can charge rent on. What defines feudalism, for Doctorow, is the domination of society by rentiers.

Perversely, even as capitalism replaces feudalism, capitalists aspire to become rentiers. They want to achieve a monopoly or near-monopoly position in some market that allows them to charge what is essentially rent.

In his new book Technofeudalism: What Killed Capitalism, the economist Yanis Varoufakis argues that a new form of capital, “cloud capital,” has taken over the real economy, allowing a small number of feudal companies to insert themselves between capitalists and their customers. Amazon takes 45–51 percent out of every dollar its sellers generate, Google and Apple take 30 cents out of every dollar an app maker generates.

and you also might be interested in …

If you’ve been worrying about the “weaponization” of the Justice Department by Democrats against Republicans, Hunter Biden’s trial began today. Like Trump, he also will have his future decided by a jury.

The bribery trial of Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is ongoing.

DoJ seems to be focused on people who break the law, not on Republicans or Democrats.


Seven Negro leagues operated between 1920 and 1948. As became apparent after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in major league baseball in 1947, the players in those leagues were quite good. This week major league baseball recognized this fact by including players from these Negro leagues in the official statistics.

The biggest impact will be on the all-time-best lists. For example, Josh Gibson (.372) now replaces Ty Cobb (.367) at the top of the all-time career batting average list.

For most of us, this rectifies a longstanding injustice. But if you’re a white supremacist, it’s one more example of America being taken away from you. You can be offended on behalf of Ty Cobb, and resent that what you learned as a kid is now obsolete.


Basketball great Bill Walton died. The most interesting tribute came from his friend and rival Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Walton’s place on the list of great players is hard to pin down, because he played at a very high level for a very short time before injuries brought him down. You could put him in the top 10 or leave him out of the top 50.

and let’s close with something deep

A surprising number of impressive sculptures are under water. Some sank there, like those from the lost Egyptian city of Heracleion. Others, though, like this statue of Poseidon’s wife Amphitrite, were intentionally placed where only divers can see them.

Venues

Trump’s refusal to take the stand encapsulates the MAGA approach to politics. Since the 2020 presidential election, he and his surrogates have made repeated accusations and statements about how the system is rigged against them and alleged there is evidence that proves them right. Crucially, they make those arguments only in front of television cameras or on podcasts and radio. They refuse to make them under oath in a court of law, where there are penalties for lying. 

Heather Cox Richardson

This week’s featured post is “Alito’s Flags Aren’t the Worst of It“, concerning the Supreme Court’s ruling (with Alito writing the majority opinion) in a racial gerrymanding case.

This week everybody was talking about Alito’s flags

It all started last week, when the NYT revealed that an upside-down American flag flew over Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s home in Virginia for several days between the January 6 insurrection and Biden’s inauguration. An upside-down flag is a traditional distress symbol, and was used by the “stop the steal” movement that believed Biden’s 2020 win was illegitimate. Alito blamed the flag on his wife, whom he said was responding to some kind of dispute with the neighbors. (He provided no further details, and also said that the dog ate his homework.)

Then Wednesday the NYT reported that a second insurrectionist flag, the Appeal To Heaven flag sometimes associated with Christian nationalism, flew over the Alitos’ vacation home on the Jersey shore in July, August, and September of 2023. (It’s not clear whether it flew continuously or sporadically.) This flag was also carried by January 6 insurrectionists.

Since its creation during the American Revolution, the flag has carried a message of defiance: The phrase “appeal to heaven” comes from the 17th-century philosopher John Locke, who wrote of a responsibility to rebel, even use violence, to overthrow unjust rule. “It’s a paraphrase for trial by arms,” Anthony Grafton, a historian at Princeton University, said in an interview. “The main point is that there’s no appeal, there’s no one else you can ask for help or a judgment.”

According to the Supreme Court’s own Code of Conduct, which it released last November to demonstrate it was not completely lawless following revelations of Clarence Thomas’ corruption,

A Justice should disqualify himself or herself in a proceeding in which the Justice’s impartiality might reasonably be questioned, that is, where an unbiased and reasonable person who is aware of all relevant circumstances would doubt that the Justice could fairly discharge his or her duties.

The Court is currently hearing a number of cases related to January 6, and has already ruled that states cannot remove Trump from their ballots on 14th-Amendment participating-in-an-insurrection grounds. Alito’s impartiality “might reasonably be questioned” by “an unbiased and reasonable person” in all these cases. But of course he will not recuse himself and Chief Justice Roberts will not demand that he do so, because in practice the Court has no code of conduct and does not recognize any judicial ethics.

Likewise Congress will not solve the problem. The filibuster will prevent the Senate from passing any binding code for the Court, and Republicans would never participate in an impeachment. I agree with Joyce Vance, that the only conceivably effective response needs to come from the voters:

This one, as I’ve written, is up to us, and to investing in the political cycle. Don’t despair, vote! … If you want a Congress that will pass ethics reform for the Supreme Court, as difficult of an endeavor as it may be to craft rules that will pass constitutional muster, then vote for people who will go on record as supporting it.

It’s unlikely we’ll get a majority large enough to impeach Alito or Thomas. But if it becomes clear that their in-your-face defiance of all constraints is a drag on the Republican Party, partisan interests may start to rein them in.

and international courts v Israel

This week, international courts made two moves against Israel. Last Monday International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Kahn sought arrest warrants for leaders of both Hamas and Israel.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and two others are accused of various crimes associated with October 7, including the killings of several hundred Israeli civilians, taking hostages, rape, and so on.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant are accused of starvation of civilians as a method of warfare, intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population, and other related offenses.

Judges of the ICC have not yet approved the warrants. If they are approved, they may not have much effect beyond their influence on international opinion. Neither set of leaders is likely to surrender itself, and the ICC commands no military force able to bring them in.

President Biden denounced the prosecutor’s move:

The ICC prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders is outrageous. And let me be clear: whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.


Friday, the International Court of Justice

ordered Israel to “[i]mmediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in the Rafah Governorate, which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.”

The Court also ordered Israel to open the Rafah crossing, to allow United Nations fact-finders to enter Gaza, and to report to the Court within one month regarding its compliance with the Court’s orders. The Court also reaffirmed its prior orders and reiterated its call for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas and other armed groups.

Again, the international court has little ability to enforce this order, but it may have some effect on popular opinion around the world.


If you’re like me, you may not have previously realized the the ICC and the ICJ are separate entities. Both are located in The Hague. The difference seems to be that the ICC prosecutes individuals, while the ICJ adjudicates disputes among nations.


Another diplomatic blow to Israel: Spain, Ireland, and Norway will formally recognize a Palestinian state tomorrow.

and the Trump trials

Both sides have now rested their cases. The judge declared a break so that summations and jury instructions could occur without interruption by the holiday weekend. Summations begin tomorrow, and the jury should be ready to deliberate later this week.

What they will do is anyone’s guess. An outright acquittal seems unlikely, given the strength of the prosecution’s case. But to prevent a conviction the defense only needs to convince one juror. That juror doesn’t even have to believe Trump is innocent, just that the case against him hasn’t been proved beyond reasonable doubt.


To no one’s surprise, Trump himself did not testify, despite saying many times that he would.

He would have been better off not offering a defense at all. It would have looked like a power move: The government hasn’t proved its case, so we have nothing to answer.

Instead, the defense called one technical witness and then Robert Costello, who was a disaster. Not only was Costello disrespectful of Judge Merchan, leading the judge to clear the courtroom to tell Costello how close he was to a contempt of court ruling, but his presence allowed the prosecution to introduce emails Costello wrote that captured just how mob-like TrumpWorld is.

Emails between Costello and Cohen were read aloud to leave the indelible memory in the minds of the jurors that Trump and Giuliani were conspiring with Costello to make sure Cohen didn’t cooperate with the government. There is even an email from Costello to Cohen saying, “Rudy said this communication channel must be maintained…sleep well tonight, you have friends in high places,” and one from Costello to his law partner saying, “Our issue is to get Cohen on the right page without giving the appearance that we are following instructions from Giuliani or the President,” (which they clearly were.) When Cohen didn’t sign on with him right away he told his law partner Cohen was “slow-playing us and the President…What should I say to this asshole? He’s playing with the most powerful man on the planet.” Didn’t he know who he was messing with?

Costello was supposed to undermine Michael Cohen’s credibility, but I suspect he enhanced it. The defense was trying to make Cohen look like a thug, but they overshot and made everyone connected with Trump look like a thug.

and Trump’s assassination claim

At some point years ago, “Trump lies” stopped being a headline; it happens every day, so it’s not news. But this week included a lie so brazen and so outrageous that it deserves attention.

In a fundraising email responding to right-wing media reports that offered a distorted reading of a newly-unsealed court filing in Trump’s classified documents case, Trump falsely claimed Biden was “locked & loaded ready to take me out” when the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago in August of 2022.

In a separate post on his Truth Social platform Tuesday evening, Trump further said he was “shown Reports” that Biden’s DOJ “AUTHORIZED THE FBI TO USE DEADLY (LETHAL) FORCE” in their search of the property for classified documents.

So what’s real? FBI search warrants have boilerplate language that is actually about limiting lethal force:

law enforcement officers of the Department of Justice may use deadly force only when necessary, that is, when the officer has a reasonable belief that the subject of such force poses an imminent danger of death or serious physical injury to the officer or to another person.

In a court filing in the Mar-a-Lago case, Trump’s lawyers left out the “only”, leaving “may use deadly force when necessary”. That document recently got unsealed, and Trump conspiracy theorists jumped on it online, eventually leading Marjorie Taylor Greene and Fox News hosts like Jesse Watters and Jeanine Pirro to start discussing the “assassination plot” like it was a real thing, including imagining shoot-outs with the Secret Service. From there the wild story got back around the Trump, who pushed it for all it was worth. It’s not clear whether he realized that he started the misperception himself.

In reality, it has been known since the day it happened that the FBI had coordinated with the Secret Service and timed the raid so that Trump would be out of town. Trump knows this. MTG knows this. Jesse Watters and Jeanine Pirro know it.


Jack Smith has responded to this incident by noting the possible danger the rumor poses to FBI agents involved in the raid, who could be witnesses in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago trial, if Judge Cannon ever allows it to happen. He has asked Cannon to modify Trump’s terms of release “to make clear that he may not make statements that pose a significant, imminent, and foreseeable danger to law enforcement agents participating in the investigation and prosecution of this case.”

I can’t imagine the boot-licking Judge Cannon acknowledging that Trump lied or that his violent supporters predictably threaten the people his rhetoric targets. But she’ll have to respond somehow.

and you also might be interested in …

I can’t say I’m surprised that Nikki Haley has finally said that she’s voting for Trump. Did she previously say a lot of bad things about the Great Man? Join the club. Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Ron DeSantis — they all said bad things about him before abasing themselves to kiss the ring.

But the people who think Haley is now in the running to be Trump’s VP are crazy. Trump’s VP has to satisfy these conditions:

  • You can’t outshine the boss. (That eliminates not just Haley, but MTG and Vivek as well.)
  • You can’t have your own following independent of the boss. (So: not DeSantis or Haley.)
  • You have to be willing to commit treason for Trump. (He’s not making the Mike Pence mistake again.)
  • You must be willing to repeat whatever claim the boss makes, no matter how absurd or counterfactual. (That’s why so many VP wannabees showed up at Trump’s courtroom wearing matching suits and red ties.)

Just to remind us that there’s no situation so good that a person can’t screw it up, former NFL star Antonio Brown, who earned $80 million during his 12-year career, has filed for bankruptcy.


If you were worried at all about Amy Klobuchar’s ability to hang onto her Senate seat in Minnesota, you can stop. Republicans looks set to nominate an absolute loon.


Cory Doctorow says that “AIs and self-driving cars are the new jetpacks”. It turns out that there was never any reason to think Jetson-style jetpacks were feasible.

In a terrific new 99 Percent Invisible episode, Chris Berube tracks the history of all those jetpacks we saw on TV for decades, and reveals that they were all the same jetpack, flown by just one guy, who risked his life every time he went up in it. The jetpack in question — technically a “rocket belt” — was built in the 1960s by Wendell Moore at the Bell Aircraft Corporation, with funding from the DoD. The Bell rocket belt used concentrated hydrogen peroxide as fuel, which burned at temperatures in excess of 1,000′. The rocket belt had a maximum flight time of just 21 seconds.

But Moore was a great showman, and got it into our heads that jetpacks were an inevitable part of the future — to the point that many people my age lament “Where are our jetpacks? We were promised jetpacks.”

Doctorow explains how the same kind of hucksterism is happening today with self-driving cars and AI in general. Big things are always just a year or two away, and if the impressive demo videos are mostly fake, they’re not lies, they’re “premature truths”.

and let’s close with something thought-provoking

If you’re looking for blogs to read, let me suggest Jess Piper’s “The View from Rural Missouri“. She has that rare touch for telling personal stories that capture something larger. Two posts to get you started: “Losing My Religion“, about how she drifted away from her Evangelical upbringing, and “Daddy Died a MAGA” about how the right-wing echo chamber turned her father into someone she couldn’t recognize.

Not the End

The cabinet, the prime minister, they signal to the Shin Bet that if a Jew is killed, that’s terrible. If an Arab is killed, that’s not good, but it’s not the end of the world.

– former Shin Bet head Ami Ayalon
quoted in “The Unpunished: How Extremists Took Over Israel

This week’s featured posts are “Wide Right: that kicker’s commencement speech” and “Two Significant Articles about Israel“.

This week everybody was talking about Israel and the Palestinians

That’s the subject of one featured post.

and the Trump trial moving towards its conclusion

I’m resisting the urge to write about the trial at length, because there’s one big thing we all want to know right now, and we can’t know it yet: What is the jury making of Michael Cohen’s testimony? I could speculate, I could link to other people’s speculations, or I could cast a hexagram from the I Ching, but in the end there’s nothing worth saying. We won’t know what the jury thinks until it produces a verdict.

Cohen is not quite done testifying yet. Today marks the third day of the defense’s cross-examination and Cohen’s fifth day on the stand altogether. Given how long it’s been since Cohen’s original testimony, the prosecution will probably want to question him in a redirect.

Cohen is the prosecution’s last witness, and the defense has been cagey about who it might call. Maybe Trump? Maybe no one? The burden of proof-beyond-reasonable-doubt is on the prosecution, so the defense could simply rest its case and claim that the burden has not been met. There’s no guessing how long the summation presentations to the jury will take, but we’re probably looking at the trial finishing either this week or next.

One major task for the prosecution’s summation will be to emphasize just how few points of its case rely on Cohen, and how unlikely all the alternative explanations are.

For example, without Cohen we already know that the payoff to Stormy Daniels happened and that Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg agreed to a plan for covertly reimbursing Cohen for fronting this payment. (We know the reimbursement was covert because Cohen was repaid double the amount he had paid Daniels in order to account for taxes. But taxes are unnecessary for a reimbursement. Only that fact that the reimbursement was hidden as “legal fees” accounts for the doubling.) Multiple witnesses have established that Trump was worried about Daniels’ story getting out, and that his worry centered on the election rather than on personal considerations (like Melania’s reaction). Multiple witnesses attest that nothing happened in the Trump empire without Trump’s personal approval.

Only Cohen’s testimony puts Trump in the room when the decisions were made. But if you disbelieve him on this point, what’s the alternative story? That Cohen paid Daniels $130K of his own money without Trump’s knowledge, that Weisselberg and Cohen fooled Trump with the reimbursement scheme, and that Trump signed $35K monthly checks to Cohen for a year without knowing what he was paying Cohen for. Really?


Various Republicans hoping for Trump’s favor have shown up at the courthouse looking like the Dear Leader’s mini-mes. And they wonder why we call it a cult.

Trump continues to be embarrassed that he hasn’t been able to get protesters to show up outside the courthouse, so he falsely claims that police are keeping them away.

and Alito’s insurrection flag

I’m not sure why it took more than three years for this to come out, but an upside-down American flag — the symbol of the pro-Trump Stop the Steal movement — flew over Justice Alito’s home for several days in the weeks following the January 6 insurrection.

Alito’s response to the revelation was ridiculous: His wife did it, in connection with some kind of dispute with the neighbors.

Alito’s statement is notable because, as the Times reporter Michael Barbaro pointed out, it does not deny that the flag was flown in solidarity with the insurrectionists. It also does not disavow the insurrectionist claim that the 2020 election was stolen, and it does not condemn the Trump-directed attempt to overthrow the constitutional order that Alito has sworn an oath to uphold.

Alito is the second justice whose behavior — sorry, sorry, his wife’s behavior — casts doubt on his ability to be impartial to cases involving January 6. (Clarence Thomas’ wife was actively pushing the false story of a stolen election in the lead-up to January 6.)

That raises the most important issue here, which is that Alito and Thomas sit on the nation’s highest court and are poised to rule on matters related to Trump’s attempts to unlawfully hold on to power. In one case, they already have—deciding that the Constitution’s ban on insurrectionists holding office does not disqualify Trump from running for president. The Court is set to rule on a challenge to a federal law used to prosecute the January 6 rioters, and in another case about Trump’s claim that former presidents have “absolute immunity” to prosecution for crimes committed as “official acts” in office. The 6–3 right-wing majority has made its partisan lean unmistakable. But there is still a difference between an ideologically conservative, or even partisan, Court and one with sitting justices whose worldview is so deranged by fanaticism that they would prefer the end of constitutional government to a president from the rival party.

An ethical judge would recuse himself from these cases. But when we’re talking about Alito and Thomas, the good ship Judicial Ethics sailed a long time ago.

and presidential debates

After a back-and-forth of taunts, it looks like there will be two presidential debates. The first is June 15 on CNN, moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The second is September 10 on ABC, with moderators not named yet. Both debates will be open to candidates polling at least 15% among likely voters in four national polls. Whether RFK Jr. and his brain-worm will meet that standard remains to be seen.


I continue to be mystified by the negative coverage Biden’s presidential campaign is getting. Trump is currently ahead by less than 1% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which looks pretty close to even to me. Several polls either have Biden ahead or see the race as tied. And yet Ezra Klein is examining “Why Biden is Losing“. If you just read headlines and don’t bother with the article “Biden is losing” is the only message you’ll get.

Josh Marshall discusses a related issue in “Is Biden in ‘Denial’ about the polls?” Biden, Marshall says, believes the polls don’t show his true strength for a number of reasons. But is that “denial” really?

The factual questions here aren’t terribly complicated and they’re not really the reason I note this article or write this post. Most polls currently show Biden just behind Trump in a tight race. Others show him either tied or just ahead. And there is a theory of the election that those polls, with a greater emphasis on high propensity voters and the concentrating effect of the final months of the campaign, will put Biden on top in November. I’ve tried to air these different arguments here in the Editors’ Blog. You can believe one or the other.

He attributes this pervasive pessimism to a psychological difference between Republicans and Democrats:

If a race is at all close, Republicans think they’re winning, or at least say they think they’re winning. Democrats are the reverse. And if they’re demonstrably winning, they worry that they’re not winning by enough or should be winning by more.

I have my own reasons to believe the polls will swing towards Biden as the election gets closer: Various voting blocs that have been Democratic in recent elections are down on Biden for one reason or another, like Gaza, and are not really thinking about Trump at all. But will young voters really let Big Oil elect a pro-fossil-fuel president? Do pro-Palestinian voters think Trump will be better for them? Do Hispanics really want to see their cousins rounded up in detention camps? I think a lot of those disaffected Democrats will eventually come home.

It doesn’t have to be all of them. I mean, we’re talking about covering a 1% gap.


Trump teased a third-term possibility in a speech to the NRA. In the same speech, a teleprompter malfunction had him completely stymied.

and that kicker’s commencement speech

See one of the featured posts.

and you also might be interested in …

The president of Iran has died in a helicopter crash. Maybe it was bad weather. Maybe it was that Iran’s helicopter fleet has a hard time getting parts, given American sanctions. Maybe it was foul play by either foreign interests or domestic rivals. Too soon to tell.


Governor Abbott pardoned a guy in prison for murdering a Black Lives Matter protester. One of the featured posts discusses how crimes by Israeli settlers against Palestinians have been routinely ignored by the authorities. Well, we have the same pattern here: If you agree with Abbott and kill somebody who disagrees with Abbott, that’s not really murder in Texas.

There’s a strong Nazi parallel here. In the early days of Hitler’s rule, the police were not nearly as scary as they eventually became. But the Brownshirts — non-government Nazi thugs — could do whatever they wanted and the police would look the other way.


A fascinating article in yesterday’s NYT about conservative Christian parents trying to create space in their lives for their transgender children.


The problem with basing a political movement on fiction is that once people get elected they get confronted with reality. Courtney Gore won a school board seat in Texas, pledging to stop the national campaign to indoctrinate children with progressive messages on sex, gender, and race. Once in office, she looked hard for such indoctrination, and didn’t find it. So she changed her mind.


The UAW’s effort to unionize Southern auto plants hit a pothole: The Mercedes plant in Alabama said no. This follows a UAW victory at a Volkswagen plant in Tennessee.

and let’s close with something peaceful

It turns out there’s a whole genre of videos showing natural beauty accompanied by relaxing music. This one focuses on Norway. I haven’t watched the whole thing — who has the time to get THAT relaxed? — but it looks fabulous.

Unconstrained and Revolutionary

Every election is billed as a national turning point. This time that rings true. To supporters, the prospect of Trump 2.0, unconstrained and backed by a disciplined movement of true believers, offers revolutionary promise. To much of the rest of the nation and the world, it represents an alarming risk.

– Eric Cortellessa, “How Far Trump Would Go

This week’s featured post is “What Trump Would Do“.

On my week off I led a Sunday service at the Unitarian Church of Quincy, Illinois. The topic may be of some interest to Sift readers: “Hope, Denial, and Healthy Relationship with the News“.

This week everybody was talking about Trump’s legal problems

As I reported two weeks ago, the prosecution continues to build a very strong case. The fireworks this week were over the testimony of Stormy Daniels, but it’s important to remember where she fits into the overall case: Trump is accused of falsifying business documents to cover up reimbursing Michael Cohen, who paid $130K for Daniels’ agreeing not to tell her story before the 2016 election.

So the actual truth of Daniels account isn’t relevant. The point is that her story would have damaged Trump politically, motivating him to pay her off and cover up doing so. I’ve heard a commentator describe her as an “exhibit” rather than a “witness”, i.e., the important fact is that her story exists. If it’s true, that’s just a bonus.

A great deal of Trump’s lawyer Susan Necheles’ cross-examination of Daniels attempted to make the jury doubt that her story is true. (Personally, I think Daniels sounds credible, and did a good job fending off the attempted slut-shaming.) But the fact that this story would have been damaging (especially in the weeks between the Access Hollywood tape and the election) seems indisputable. Even if you believe Trump’s claim that Daniels made her story up to extort money from him, you can still find him guilty.

After her testimony, Trump’s lawyers asked for a mistrial, on the grounds that the details of her alleged encounter with Trump were unnecessary and prejudiced the jury against him. Judge Merchan denied the motion, essentially saying that the defense had created the problem itself: It invited a detailed account by claiming in its opening statement that Daniels was lying, and failed to object to the questions that elicited the prejudicial information.

As I observed two weeks ago, the defense still tells no plausible story. The only part of the prosecution’s case that isn’t totally nailed down is that Trump knew about the payment and the reimbursement scheme. (This is the one undocumented part of the prosecution’s account. Like a Mafia boss, Trump is famously reluctant to use email or put anything in writing. Cohen will start testifying today about his instructions from Trump, but there are no corroborating documents or other witnesses.) But Trump is the only one with a motive to set the scheme in motion. Otherwise, you have to believe that Cohen completely on his own borrowed $130K to pay Daniels, that Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg came up with the reimbursement plan without telling his boss, and that the notoriously stingy Trump signed over $400K worth of checks to Cohen with no explanation beyond “legal fees”.

That’s a story, I suppose. But I don’t find it plausible enough to create reasonable doubt.


I wish this trial could be televised, because the transcript makes it look like Daniels won the battle of wits with Necheles. When Necheles characterized Daniels’ porn-directing career as “a lot of experience making phony stories about sex”, Daniels shot back: “If that story was untrue, I would’ve written it to be a lot better.”


After Daniels’ testimony, Trump asked for his gag order to be amended to allow him to respond. That motion was denied for an obvious reason: If Trump wants to respond to Daniels sworn testimony, he can take an oath and testify himself, facing the threat of perjury just like she did.

But that’s not what Trump wants. He wants to smear her in forums where he can lie without consequences.

He’s bound to make a similar request after Michael Cohen testifies, and he’ll get the same result. Trump claims it’s unfair that Daniels and Cohen aren’t gagged, so they can criticize him and he can’t respond. But they aren’t under indictment, and they have no record of inciting violence against people they attack online.


Meanwhile, the most open-and-shut case against Trump, the Mar-a-Lago documents case is indefinitely delayed. Judge Cannon plans a public hearing where Trump will get to air his baseless “malicious prosecution” theory.


ProPublica and the New York Times report on a tax problem that might cost Trump $100 million.

If you’ve ever wandered around downtown Chicago, you’ve undoubtedly seen the 92-story Trump International Hotel and Tower, which sits on the Chicago River proclaiming Trump’s name in giant letters. It looks like a monument to wealth and success.

Actually it’s anything but. The Tower opened into the worst of the Great Recession, and has been a money-loser from Day 1. Losing money, though, isn’t entirely bad, because it produces a tax write-off. The problem is that Trump appears to have written off the loss twice.

and Biden’s increasing rift with Netanyahu

Israel has begun attacking Rafah and is showing intentions to launch a full-scale invasion of the one piece of Gaza where civilians have been taking refuge. Wednesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Congress that the administration was “pausing” shipments of certain weapons to Israel.

Austin said that the US is pausing the shipment of “high-payload munitions” due to Israel’s possible operations in Rafah without a plan for the civilians there.

Friday, a State Department report to Congress gave mixed reviews to Israel’s usage of American weapons so far.

The US says it is “reasonable to assess” that the weapons it has provided to Israel have been used in ways that are “inconsistent” with international human rights law, but that there is not enough concrete evidence to link specific US-supplied weapons to violations or warrant cutting the supply of arms.

Netanyahu continues to have no plan for governing Gaza after the killing stops. This is not just a political problem, it has turned into a military problem as Hamas reinfiltrates areas that had already been cleared.

Criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has increased within the IDF and includes Defense Minister Yoav Gallant who want to know who will replace Hamas. procrastination, they say, has given the terror group space to regroup and force the IDF back into Gaza in larger numbers.

Netanyahu has argued that deciding on a new political manager for Gaza must wait until the war is over, but the IDF and Gallant have countered that during the last few months in which the military have had operational control of nearly all of Gaza avoiding a decision was a missed opportunity.

In my opinion, it is Biden and not Netanyahu who is truly looking out for Israel’s best interests. Netanyahu appears to me to think of Hamas as a leadership structure commanding some number of fighters; capture or kill all those people, and the problem is solved. But I think it’s more accurate to think of Hamas as an idea: Peace with Israel is impossible.

If at the end of this campaign Palestinians are convinced more than ever that peace with Israel is impossible, Hamas will reform — no matter how many of its current members Israel kills.

Meanwhile, the current war erodes the possibility of finding Arab partners to administer Gaza after the war ends. Yesterday, Egypt announced that it would support South Africa’s genocide charges against Israel at the International Court of Justice.


Pro-Palestine voters who are thinking of not supporting Democrats in the fall need to consider what Republicans will do if they get into power. Here, Lindsey Graham defends how Israel is prosecuting the war in Gaza by invoking the US nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

That was the right decision. Give Israel the bombs they need to end the war they can’t afford to lose.


When violent counter-protesters broke up the pro-Palestinian encampment at UCLA, the obvious people to suspect were pro-Israel students. But that appears not to be true.

researchers studying hate and anti-government groups have confirmed the presence at the counter-demonstrations of several far-right activists who have been involved in anti-LGBTQ+ and anti-vaccine protests across southern California over the past three years.

This is in line with previous reporting that anti-Muslim and antisemitic online trolls are often the same people. Spreading hate is the point. Any target of opportunity will do.

and the New York Times

I’ve seen a certain amount of debate in opinion columns about whether the NYT slants left or right. The answer, from my view, is complicated, because I think different things are happening at different levels.

You can’t really understand left/right journalistic bias without this observation: Most MAGA positions rely on believing (or at least arguing) things that simply aren’t true: an immigrant crime wave is sweeping through America’s cities, crime in general is up, climate change isn’t real, the Covid vaccine did more harm than good, the economy is terrible, Trump really won the 2020 election (which entails its own full basket of untruths: undocumented immigrants voted, dead people voted, voting machines were rigged …), healthy fetuses get aborted up to (and even past) the moment of birth, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is justified, the Southern border is “open“, January 6 was a peaceful protest led by patriots, the Black Lives Matter protests burned American cities to the ground, and so on. (I’m sure I missed a few.)

At the reporter level, the NYT remains committed to accuracy, so to that extent it has a liberal bias. On any given day, a MAGA true believer who scans the front page of the Times will almost certainly find something to offend his beliefs about the world.

Similarly, NYT columnists are more likely to lean left than right, and conservative NYT columnists are likely to by anti-Trump. (Of course, yesterday they published a guest essay headlined “Biden is Doing it All Wrong.”) I have little doubt that as the November election approaches, the Times will officially endorse Biden.

But at the level where decisions about what to cover get made, the Times has been showing a decidedly conservative bias. Here’s some data gathered by the CSS Lab at the Annenberg School for Communication.

During the week that [Special Counsel Hur’s] report [on Biden’s retention of classified documents] came out, we examined the top 20 articles on the Times’ landing page every four hours. In that time, they published 26 unique articles about Biden’s age, of which 1 of them explored the possibility that Trump’s age was of equal or more concern. This seems like a lot of articles in a short amount of time, but it’s hard to say whether or not it is excessive without some other equally relevant issue to compare it with. Helpfully, an obvious comparison arose when, on February 10, 2024, Trump announced that if he regained power he would pull the US out of NATO and even encourage Russian invasions of democratic allies if their financial commitments were not to his liking. This announcement that Trump would upend the world’s core military alignment of the last 75+ years, garnered 10 unique articles in the timeframe.

Less quantitatively, I’ve been noticing slanted coverage of Trump/Biden polls. Polls that show Trump leading are highlighted, and sometimes garner multiple articles. Polls that show Biden leading get much less coverage. (Again, the polls themselves are reported accurately; reporters seem to be honest and objective.) Among the polls included in 538’s polling average so far in May, Biden leads in four, Trump in two, and they are tied in one. Would you have guessed that from reading the Times?

In general, if the Right wants the public to pay attention to some issue, that issue will get extensive coverage in the Times. It won’t always be covered in the (false) way the Right wants it covered, but the Times will draw its readers’ attention in that direction.

I have no inside knowledge about the NYT. But from the outside it looks like pro-Trump bias at higher levels competes with commitment to accuracy at lower levels.

and you also might be interested in …

Wednesday, the House voted 359-43 to table Marjorie Taylor Greene’s motion to oust Speaker Mike Johnson. Democrats joined Republicans to avoid yet another protracted leadership battle. It’s not clear what Greene thought she would gain by presenting this motion, which protests all the times in recent months Johnson has allowed bipartisan majorities to pass legislation.

“This is the ‘uni-party’ for the American people watching,” Greene said, as if the two parties working together for common goals constituted some kind of betrayal.


A couple of what-Trump-would-do things that have come in recently: He says he’d deport pro-Palestinian protesters and eliminate protections for transgender students.


Not so long ago, “Will you accept the election results even if your side loses?” wasn’t considered a gotcha question. But today’s MAGA Republicans seem to think it is. Watch Tim Scott squirm around answering it. When the interviewer tries to insist, Scott accuses her of bias: “This is why so many Americans believe that NBC is an extension of the Democrat Party.”

What Scott is indirectly pointing to is the main difference between the parties: Democrats remain committed to democracy even when they lose, but Republicans don’t.


Steve Bannon’s conviction for contempt of Congress was upheld by a federal appeals court. Former US attorney Joyce Vance comments:

Bannon is effectively out of appeals. He can delay a little bit longer, asking for the full court to review the decision en banc & asking SCOTUS to hear his case on cert, but neither one of those things will happen. Bannon is going to prison.


Remember how horrible it was when Biden said “Mexico” instead of “Egypt”? Well, Saturday Trump said “Beijing” when he seems to have meant “Taiwan”. And I have no idea what his tribute to “the late, great Hannibal Lecter” was about.

More serious than replacing one word with another, Trump increasingly utters noises that aren’t words at all, like “carrydoubtitebyrite” and “bordeninriviv“. We all call something by the wrong name occasionally, but I know I’ve never heard my verbal centers glitch like that. Something is wrong.


I was glad to see Brian Broome answer Jerry Seinfeld’s old-man complaint that America has lost its sense of humor due to “the extreme left and PC crap”.

I remember my Mom telling me that nobody was funny any more, not like Bob Hope or Red Skelton or the comedians she remembered. This was during the prime of people like Richard Pryor, Eddie Murphy, and Robin Williams, who I found hilarious.

I remember many of Mom’s favorite comedians. They made fun of drunks and mothers-in-law and so forth. At some point that stopped being funny, because comedy is always changing. If Seinfeld’s routines have stopped being funny, that’s on him, not “the extreme left”.

and let’s close with something colorful

A cloudy evening caused me to miss this weekend’s spectacular display of the northern lights across much of the world. This photo comes from Brunswick, Maine.

Incentives

No Sift next week. The next new posts will appear on May 13.

If someone with those kinds of powers, the most powerful person in the world, with the greatest amount of authority, could go into office knowing that there would be no potential penalty for committing crimes, I’m trying to understand what the disincentive is from turning the Oval Office into the seat of criminal activity in this country. … If the potential for criminal liability is taken off the table, wouldn’t there be a significant risk that future presidents would be emboldened to commit crimes with abandon while they’re in office?

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson during the discussion of presidential immunity

This week’s featured posts are “The Manhattan case against Trump is stronger than I expected“, “What to make of student protests?“, and “The Supreme Court is breaking America’s faith in the law“.

This week everybody was talking about student protests

This is the subject of a featured post.

After I pushed the button on that piece, I noticed this tweet by GOP opinion-shaper Frank Luntz:

Last night at the [White House Correspondents] dinner, I spoke privately with 4 members of Congress: 2 Dems and 2 GOPers. All 4 are big foreign policy players and all 4 are strongly pro-Israel in every way. However… All 4 spoke with significant and serious concern (bordering on anger) about Israel’s impact on humanitarian aid in Gaza. None of them called for a ceasefire, but all of them were deeply critical of what they believe is Israel’s interference and lack of cooperation in getting aid to the Palestinian people. For more than a decade, some Israeli leaders dismissed what was happening on college campuses. They were wrong then, and they would be wrong now to dismiss this warning about what’s happening in Congress.

and Trump’s trial

This is covered in another featured post. I’ll include here some details that didn’t fit into that article.

The trial has given Trump many things to complain about, from the courtroom being cold to the judge’s gag order that takes away “my constitutional rights to speak“, i.e. fairly ineffectively preventing him from trying to intimidate witnesses and jurors.

His weirdest complaint, though, was that the trial prevented him from being with his wife Melania on her birthday Friday. The court proceedings ended for the day at 4:30, so there was plenty of time for the Trumps to have a night on the town, if only Melania had decided to leave their Florida home and come to their Trump Tower apartment to support her husband during his trial. But clearly it is Judge Merchan’s cruelty and not Melania’s indifference that is keeping them apart.


Another reality-denying Trump complaint is that his supporters are being kept away from the trial. He posted:

Thousands of people were turned away from the Courthouse in Lower Manhattan by steel stanchions and police, literally blocks from the tiny side door from where I enter and leave.

None of that is true. In fact, MAGA supporters have almost unanimously ignored his pleas for them to act out. More than a year ago, Trump predicted “potential death and destruction” if he were charged in this case. Again and again, he has warned that the American people would not stand for any attempt to put him on trial, and has done his best to incite January 6 style violence. But it hasn’t worked. Every day, a mere handful of docile Trump supporters show up outside the courthouse.

and the Supreme Court

People who believe in our legal system generally found Thursday’s discussion of Trump’s “absolute immunity” claim not just annoying or enraging, but depressing. Our highest court is corrupt. There’s just no getting around that any more. I discuss why in the third featured post.

One aside, concerning several cases discussed this week: The arguments underline a basic difference between how liberals and conservatives think: Liberals are more grounded in reality. Again and again, the liberal justices referenced things that are actually happening, while the conservative justices were far more interested in imagining scenarios that could happen, but are highly unlikely.

I’ve made this observation before, with respect to guns.

If you’ve ever wandered into an argument over guns and gun control, you’ve undoubtedly noticed that the two sides talk past each other. Proponents of gun control quote statistics: how many more shooting deaths we have in America than there are in countries with fewer guns, how many more suicides or police deaths there are in well-armed states, and so on.

Pro-gun advocates are more likely to tell stories, and often those stories are dark what-if fantasies: What if home invaders came to kill you, kidnap your baby, or rape your teen-age daughter? What if you were a hostage in a bank robbery? What if you were at a restaurant or grocery store when terrorists broke in and started killing people? Wouldn’t you wish you had a gun then?

Such stories are easily stretched to indict even the mildest forms of gun control, like limiting magazines to ten shots: Picture your wife hiding in a closet with a handgun. Before she hid, she already gotten off a few shots at the invaders, and now she’s not sure how many shots she has left. Don’t you wish now you’d been able to buy her a gun with a larger magazine?

In the featured post on the Court, I described how Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh wanted to discuss just about every possibility other than the one in front of them, where a grand jury has found probable cause to charge Trump with crimes.

Something similar happened in the Court’s discussion of how the federal EMTALA law conflicted with Idaho’s abortion law. Conservative justices wanted to talk about bizarre hypotheticals in which deceitful women could lie about their suicidal impulses in order to get late-term abortions. Liberals wanted to talk about actual cases in which women with problem pregnancies have to wait until they are near death to get care.

You can see it across the board: Men might claim to be women to get into your daughter’s bathroom. Has that ever happened? Well, maybe not, but it could. Librarians could be grooming your children for pedophilia. Can you name one? Transwomen might drive “real” women out of women’s sports. Well, we just saw the NCAA basketball tournament. Is that happening? On and on.

and new indictments in Arizona

This week Arizona indicted a number of people involved in the Trump fake-elector plot, including all the electors themselves, Mark Meadows, Rudy Giuliani, and a few other Trump administration insiders.

and you also might be interested in …

Harvey Weinstein’s rape conviction was overturned by the New York court of appeals, on the grounds that the trial judge allowed the jury to hear too much about crimes that weren’t directly related. The state has the option to try him again, and in the meantime New York can send him to California, where he faces a 16-year sentence.

It’s a tricky point of the law, which comes up again in the current Trump trial: You’re supposed to be on trial for the specific crime in the indictment, and not for being a bad person in general. But if other crimes indicate a pattern of behavior, they might be relevant. So a judge has to decide: How does the illustrative value of a defendant’s previous bad behavior balance against the possibility of prejudicing the jury against him?


Texas Senator Ted Cruz may have thought his arrangement with iHeart Media circumvented both Senate rules banning outside jobs and election laws preventing candidates from coordinating with or directly raising money for their super PACs. But he may have gotten a little too clever.

Here’s the arrangement: Cruz hosts a three-episodes-a-week podcast, which would be a full-time job for a lot of people. He does it “for free” in the sense that he does not get direct payments from iHeart, which carries the podcast and sells advertising on it. However, iHeart does make regular payments to Cruz’ super PAC, which so far have totaled at least $630K and constitute more than a third of the PAC’s total contributions.

It’s undeniable that this violates the intention of the laws regulating super PACs. But it’s possible Cruz has found an unethical loophole in the law. No one can say for sure at the moment, because Cruz and iHeart refuse to reveal the exact terms of their agreement.

One line of the Texas Observer article on this strikes me as hilarious:

Cruz claims he does the podcast as a service to the public by pulling back the curtain on corruption in Washington.

I can’t argue with him there.


BTW, you might wonder how Cruz’ podcast differs from a Substack blog I often quote: Quick Update by Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-NC). The difference is that Jackson’s blog generates no revenue: subscriptions are free and there are no ads.


President Biden at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner:

The 2024 election is in full swing, and yes, age is an issue. I’m a grown man running against a six-year-old.


I don’t know what to make of South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem’s account of killing her 14-month-old dog Cricket. She tells the story in her new book No Going Back, which isn’t out yet. The Guardian, which got an advance copy, summarizes:

She includes her story about the ill-fated Cricket, she says, to illustrate her willingness, in politics as well as in South Dakota life, to do anything “difficult, messy and ugly” if it simply needs to be done.

Maybe this is where the Republican Party is these days. In 2022, many GOP candidates carried or shot guns in their ads. So maybe the next step is to show you’re not afraid to kill. Or maybe Noem is sending a message specifically to Trump, who is said to be considering her as a possible VP candidate: Mike Pence wasn’t willing to betray the Republic for you, but I’ll do whatever ugly things need doing. (And Trump famously hates dogs.)

and let’s close with something ominous

I suspect I’m not the only one who sees himself Tom Gauld’s “To Be Read” cartoon.

Trustworthiness

I wouldn’t believe Donald Trump if his tongue were notarized.

potential juror not seated for Trump trial

This week’s featured post is “Defending American Values: Trial by Jury“.

This week everybody was talking about the dysfunction of the House GOP

I guess all’s well that ends well. Saturday, pro-Russia House Republicans were finally overcome and the Ukraine aid President Biden requested last September was approved. The aid passed with Democrats voting 210-0 in favor and Republicans 101-112 against.

The road to that vote was very strange. Typically, passing a bill begins with passing a set of rules for the vote. The rules resolution defines the process for passing the bill, including the timing of the vote and what amendments will be in order. This is done through the Rules Committee, which typically is a rubber-stamp for the Speaker, whose party has a majority on that committee. Rules Committee votes are often party-line.

This time, though three Republicans voted against the rule, which only got out of the committee because Democrats supported it. Similarly on the floor of the House, 55 Republicans voted against the rule, which would have failed without Democratic support.


The Senate is expected to pass the Ukraine aid package tomorrow, and the weaponry (some of which is already stockpiled in Europe), should start arriving within days.


Marjorie Taylor Greene, who Colorado Republican Rep. Ken Buck accused of “mouthing Russian propaganda“, reiterated her threat to oust Johnson (in the same manner Kevin McCarthy was removed in October after refusing to shut down the government), but did not bring her vacate-the-chair resolution to the floor before the House adjourned.

That could mean that she knows she doesn’t have the votes, but it’s hard to say for sure.


This whole episode points out the dysfunction of the House’s right wing. They managed to delay Ukraine aid, but not stop it. And they got nothing in exchange for letting it pass.

In February, Senator Lankford (R-OK) had negotiated a Ukraine-aid package that included very much of what the GOP wanted in a border bill. But Trump decided he wanted the border as an issue in November, so he torpedoed that compromise.

So now Republicans get to complain that we are spending money to secure Ukraine but not to secure our southern border, but it’s empty rhetoric. Democrats were willing to take action on the border, but Republicans weren’t.


One of the most ridiculous stories of the week was the Freedom Caucus worrying that Speaker Johnson was going to launch a surprise attack on them.

Conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus are signing up to take shifts to monitor the chamber floor in order to prevent their own party leaders from making unilateral moves that could curb their power.

This group called itself the Floor Action Response Team, a.k.a. FART. You can’t make this stuff up.

and Trump’s trial

Last week I was hearing that it might take as long as a month to find a jury for Trump’s Manhattan trial, which began last Monday. In fact, 12 jurors and six alternates were in place by Friday. Opening statements are happening this morning.

The most unsettling story of the week (other than the disturbed man who set himself on fire to send a message that no one has been able to decipher) was MAGA-world’s attempt to rig and intimidate the jury. In the featured post, I take a step back and consider Trumpists’ attacks on the jury system as part of their larger authoritarian project.


Trump has quite obviously been defying Judge Merchan’s gag order. The judge will hold a hearing tomorrow. What he decides to do should tell us a lot about how the trial will proceed.

It’s obvious that Trump believes he can’t be jailed, and that any fines will just be the cost of doing business. I’ll be curious to see how Merchan punctures that confidence. I hope he has had somebody working on the logistical problem of jailing a man with Secret Service protection. A good first step would be to send Trump on a tour of the facilities Merchan has picked out.


Trump is having trouble accepting the fact that he has been indicted by a grand jury of American citizens, and so is a criminal defendant.

Case in point: Barron Trump’s high school graduation. Trump asked Judge Merchan to adjourn the trial for a day on May 17 so that he can go to the ceremony. Merchan said maybe; if the trial is on schedule then, an adjournment might happen. Trump took this as a rejection and complained bitterly on social media, inciting his followers to denounce the judge. (Michael Cohen then posted that Trump had never attended his other children’s graduations, which seems not to be true.)

But the upshot is that Trump is being treated like what he is: a criminal defendant. Defendants don’t typically get to arrange the court schedule for their own convenience. They also don’t get to control the court sketch artist or the room’s thermostat, or to prevent reporters from mentioning that they fall asleep in court.

Merchan is simply using the levers he has to keep Trump under control: If Trump keeps trying to delay the trial any way he can, he won’t get to go to Barron’s graduation. In other words: If you want something from me, behave yourself.

My conclusion: Trump knows he won’t behave, and is already setting up to deny that it will be his own fault when he misses the graduation.


Trump scheduled a rally Saturday in North Carolina, but cancelled it due to weather. It’s got to be wearing on him to go so long without the encouragement of a worshiping crowd.


If there’s one person who’s enjoying all this, it’s Jimmy Kimmel. While he was hosting the Oscars over a month ago, Kimmel read aloud Trump’s social-media rant against Kimmel’s performance, and then addressed Trump directly:

Thank you for watching. I’m surprised you’re still [up]. Isn’t it past your jail time?

Five weeks later, Trump hasn’t been able to let that go, so Wednesday he used his day off from court to post another rant about Kimmel and the Oscars, pretending it was Kimmel who couldn’t get over it.

Stupid Jimmy Kimmel, who still hasn’t recovered from his horrendous performance and big ratings drop as Host of The Academy Awards, especially when he showed he suffered from TDS, commonly known as TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME, to the entire World by reading on air my TRUTH about how bad a job he was doing that night, right before he stumbled through announcing the biggest award of all, ‘Picture of the Year.’

Wednesday night, Kimmel took this apart line by line: Ratings were up, and as the host, Kimmel didn’t present any awards.

The person who presented the [Best Picture] award was Al Pacino, not me. We are different people. … You’d think he would know that because I’m pretty sure ‘Say hello to my little friend’ is what he said to Stormy Daniels that got him in all this trouble.

Kimmel later suggested that if he hosted again next year, Trump might be able to watch “on the TV in the Rec Room at Rikers”. The whole monologue is worth watching, and proves that a politician should never get into a back-and-forth with a comedian.


The phrase “Trump derangement syndrome” is a classic projection, as Kimmel pointed out. (“There’s only one person who suffers from Trump derangement syndrome. His name is Donald Trump.”) The surest way to get yourself diagnosed with TDS is to look at facts about Trump, apply ordinary standards of morality and decency, and reach the obvious conclusion that the man is a piece of shit.

But what’s truly deranged is the way Trump cultists distort reality to justify whatever their idol does. Take sexual assault, for example. At least two dozen women have publicly accused Trump of some form of inappropriate sexual advances, up to and including rape. Their stories are remarkably similar, and they track with the behavior Trump bragged about on the Access Hollywood tape.

The Trump cult explanation is simple: All the women are lying, and Trump’s confession was meaningless “locker room talk”.

Who’s deranged here?


Kevin McCarthy is trying to normalize Trump’s denial of the 2020 election by asking “Has Hillary Clinton ever said she lost the 2016 election?” Yeah, she did. On national TV. There’s video.

and Israel/Iran

Cooler heads may be prevailing. The tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran seems to be dying down and may have ended. After Israel bombed Iran’s diplomatic compound in Damascus, Iran vowed to retaliate. On April 13, it sent over 300 drones and missiles flying towards Israel, nearly all of which got knocked down. Then it was Israel who vowed to retaliate, which it did early Friday morning.

Israel attacked a military base very close to a major Iranian nuclear facility. So the attack was mostly a message: If we had wanted to strike something much more important, you couldn’t have stopped us. So far, Iran seems to be ignoring this attack, at least in public.

So we can hope that this particular episode is over, and Iran will go back to fighting Israel through proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah.

and the Supreme Court

The Court has some interesting cases lined up this week, which is the final week of arguments in this term. Thursday, it will hear arguments on Trump’s claim of criminal immunity. The big question here is not whether it will find in his favor, but whether it will continue playing along with his delay strategy. (I have a fantasy in which the Biden administration files an amicus brief, urging the Court to decide this case quickly so that Biden knows what laws he can break before his term ends. In particular, can he order the assassinations of certain justices while he still has time to nominate replacements?)

Liz Cheney writes:

Mr. Trump believes he can threaten and intimidate judges and their families, assert baseless legal defenses and thereby avoid accountability altogether. Through this conduct, he seeks to break our institutions. If Mr. Trump’s tactics prevent his Jan. 6 trial from proceeding in the ordinary course, he will also have succeeded in concealing critical evidence from the American people — evidence demonstrating his disregard for the rule of law, his cruelty on Jan. 6 and the deep flaws in character that make him unfit to serve as president. The Supreme Court should understand this reality and conclude without delay that no immunity applies here.


Today, the Court is hearing arguments in Grants Pass v Johnson, which involves a longstanding principle of American law: In order to break the law, you have to do something, not just be a certain kind of person.

The issue here is homelessness. Grants Pass has such sweeping laws against sleeping in public that it is nearly impossible for a homeless person to live there and stay within the law. On the one hand, it seems like it shouldn’t be illegal simply to be homeless. On the other, municipalities want to have some way to regulate homeless encampments, which can be health hazards.


Wednesday, it’s time for Idaho v United States. Here the issue is a Reagan-era law known as the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act, Emtala for short. Emtala requires emergency rooms to treat people who show up there (or risk losing Medicare and Medicaid funding).

The case was brought after Idaho imposed a near-total abortion ban that allowed doctors to perform an emergency abortion only if a pregnant patient was on the brink of death.

That law is in direct conflict with Emtala, which requires doctors to stabilize emergency patients so they won’t face severe health consequences – a radically lower bar for intervention than Idaho’s. Shortly after Roe was overturned, the Biden administration issued a guidance stating that the federal law pre-empts state abortion bans, ultimately suing Idaho over its ban.

So if a woman with a problem pregnancy shows up at an emergency room in Idaho, and isn’t at death’s door, but needs an abortion to, say, preserve her future fertility or prevent some problem that may lead to death in a week or two, what should happen?

These cases should all be decided by the end of the term in June.

and you also might be interested in …

Not content to simply waste its own time, the House Republican majority tried to waste the Senate’s time as well. The Senate refused.

The House had impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas essentially for policy differences. Ostensibly, he was charged with refusing to observe a 1952 law requiring applicants for asylum to be detained until a decision is reached — something no administration has done in recent years, largely because Congress hasn’t appropriated the money to do it. (One of the goals of the border bill that Trump torpedoed was to streamline the asylum process by funding more courts and judges.)

Once an impeachment has been voted by the House, the Senate is supposed to drop all its other business and hold a trial. Republicans were hoping for a grand show trial that would give them a stage to pontificate about border issues.

Democrats refused to play ball. In short order, a party-line vote (where Republican Lisa Murkowski voted Present rather than No) ended the trial because the bill of impeachment “does not allege conduct that rises to the level of a high crime or misdemeanor” as required in the Constitution.


Workers at a Volkswagen factory in Chattanooga overwhelmingly voted to join the United Auto Workers. The factory had rejected the union in 2014 and 2019, but this time the union held nearly a 3-1 majority. Historically, the South has not been welcoming to unions.

and let’s close with something spectacular

Two of nature’s most striking spectacles are the Northern Lights and a volcano erupting at night. In Iceland, you can sometimes get both.

Dreams of ease

The fact of the matter is that almost nobody who works for a living has the time they wish they did to look, feel or be their best, much less to cultivate a highly aesthetic relationship with a thing called ease.

– Monica Hesse
Tradwives, stay-at-home girlfriends and the dream of feminine leisure

This week’s featured posts are “A Different Take on Retro Conservative Fantasy“, “The Arizona Abortion Ruling“, and “Republicans Scramble to Contain their Abortion Disaster“.

This week everybody was talking about abortion

My thoughts about the week’s developments are parceled out between two featured posts. I specifically examine the Arizona Supreme Court’s reinstatement of a draconian 1864 law in “The Arizona Abortion Ruling“. (Surprise: I agree that the majority read the state’s horrible laws correctly.) And I look at the larger political situation in “Republicans Scramble to Contain their Abortion Disaster“.

and Iran’s retaliation against Israel

Ever since Hamas’ October 7 attacks, one of the main goals of the Biden administration has been to keep the situation from escalating into a larger war involving Iran directly, and possibly drawing in Saudi Arabia and other regional powers. That got more difficult two weeks ago when Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Syria, killing two Iranian generals.

Iran vowed to respond, and Sunday it launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel. With American help, Israeli air defenses seem to have handled the attack, which resulted in little damage.

If this were a playground spat — something I think the Middle East often resembles — the proper Israeli response would be something like “Nyah, nyah, missed me.” But apparently not everyone thinks so. So Biden is now trying to talk Israel out of launching some kind of attack on Iran.

and Trump’s first criminal trial

So the day has actually arrived: Trump is in court as a criminal defendant. Jury selection is underway.

Nobody has come up with the right name for this case yet. Sometimes it’s called the “hush money” indictment, but that makes it sound as if Trump were accused of paying hush money to cover up his affair with porn star Stormy Daniels — which isn’t true. Cheating on your wife with a porn star and then paying her not to tell anybody may be sleazy, but it isn’t illegal.

The actual charge here is falsifying business records, which makes the case sound like some technical bookkeeping error. That also is misleading. The course of illegality here is more circuitous: Trump had his fixer, Michael Cohen, pay for Stormy’s silence out of his own funds just before the 2016 election. (I can imagine the conversation where Cohen explained to his wife that he had taken out a home equity loan so that he could give money to a porn star.) That money wasn’t recorded as either a campaign expense or an in-kind contribution. And then the Trump Organization reimbursed Cohen, recording the expense as legal fees. Those legal-fee invoices are the false business records.

So at its root, the case is about defrauding the electorate in 2016.

Anyway, all Trump’s last-minute motions to try to get the trial delayed failed, so here we are. Estimates on the timing vary, but most legal commentators predict a verdict well before the summer conventions.

There’s a lot of debate over what political impact the trial will have. One school of thought says this is all good for Trump, because it plays into his persecution narrative. His voters are never going to believe he’s guilty anyway, so there’s nothing to gain by convicting him.

I disagree. Trump is strongest politically when his campaign can spin gauzy tales about how great everything was in 2019. (They’ve shoved the nightmare of 2020 down the memory hole.) He’s weakest when his personality is front and center, reminding people of how much most of us hated having him as our president.

Trump on trial is going to be Trump at his worst: glowering, muttering, unable to control himself, and doing his best to incite violence against the long list of people he thinks have wronged him. The main issue at the trial is going to be whether Trump knew how this whole scheme worked, and numerous witnesses are going to say that he did. The only person in a position to testify that he didn’t is Trump himself, and Trump (as we’ve seen in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case) is a terrible witness. If he testifies — which he says he’ll do, but I doubt — he’ll insult the judge, alienate the jury, and probably convict himself.

One thing I’ve picked up from online interactions with Trump defenders is that most of them have preserved their faith in his general innocence by refusing to see the evidence against him. They didn’t watch the January 6 Committee hearings, haven’t read the indictments, and so on. They don’t have some alternate interpretation of the evidence that clears him, but they just say “politically motivated persecution”, believe him when he says “I did nothing wrong”, and refuse to delve any deeper. That kind of intentional ignorance is going to be hard to maintain once this trial takes over the news cycle.

In particular, it’s going to be hard for members of the jury. So even if a juror or two comes in as a Trump sympathizer, they might end up voting to convict. Especially after he glowers at them for several weeks.


Trump’s cognitive decline is getting harder to explain away. Here, he doesn’t just get the wrong word (as Biden sometimes does), his verbal center seems to glitch completely.

and you also might be interested in …

Kansas’ Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, vetoed a bill banning gender-affirming care, saying that it “tramples on parental rights”. Republicans have a supermajority in the legislature and are going to try to override the veto.

This is typical of Republicans: They support the rights of parents until the parents do something they don’t like. Similarly, they support local control until local governments do something they don’t like. All their apparent “principles” are just rhetoric.


The NYT is reaching the point where parodies just can’t keep up. Wednesday, it did a both-sides treatment of abortion: “Two Imperfect Messengers Take On Abortion“. I mean, Trump brags about torpedoing Roe v Wade and Biden supports legislation to restore it, but they’re basically the same.


The WaPo talked to Trump Media investors who are trying to keep the faith in the face of a plunging stock price. No matter how much they lose, they’ll never admit that they’ve been had by a lifelong conman.

Meanwhile, the conman and his insider cronies took steps this morning to offer more shares for sale, driving the stock price down to a new low: $27.55 a little before noon today. That’s down 15% since this morning, and down from its March 27 peak around $70.


So O. J. Simpson died of cancer this week. I’m somewhat amazed by how much coverage this has gotten. Yes, his murder trial dominated the news in 1994 and was an important moment in the transition to news-as-entertainment. But if you’re under 40, you may not know who he was.

I thought I’d add something to the discussion nobody else seems to remember: what a cultural presence OJ was before the murder and the trial. Here’s a 1978 clip from the Robin Williams comedy Mork and Mindy, where Mork was an alien sent to explore Earth. (This was the role that first made Williams famous.)

Every episode would end with Mork reporting to Orson, his contact back on Ork. This episode’s report included a terrible pun. Mork told Orson that some Earth people worship O. J. Simpson. “The Juice?” Orson asked, displaying a mysterious familiarity with OJ’s nickname. Mork replied: “Yes. And the gentiles also.”

and let’s close with something dark

Last Monday’s eclipse dominated public attention for a few hours. Maybe you watched a partial eclipse, or traveled to see totality, or missed it completely. But never mind. Lots of people took pictures. Here’s Wired magazine’s selections of the best ones.

Systems

This is tragic but it is not an anomaly.
The killing of aid workers in Gaza has been systemic.

Scott Paul of Oxfam,
commenting on the death of seven World Central Kitchen workers

This week’s featured post is “Will the World Central Kitchen attack change anything?

This week everybody was talking about signs and wonders

This morning, all eyes are on the narrow corridor of the total eclipse, which stretches from Texas in the South to Maine in the North, and goes through Dallas, Cleveland, and Buffalo along the way.

I’ve never experienced a total eclipse myself (and won’t see this one either), but I imagine there must be a significant oh-wow effect to seeing the Sun go dark in the middle of the sky. It’s not hard to see why pre-scientific peoples tried to read portents into such an event, just as they read meaning into the appearance of comets and other celestial phenomena.

It’s much harder for me to understand why so many people are still doing it. We know what causes eclipses and can predict them hundreds of years in advance.

Friday, Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted:

God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent. Earthquakes and eclipses and many more things to come. I pray that our country listens.

and then doubled down yesterday:

Many have mocked and scoffed at this post and even put community notes. Jesus talked about that in Luke 12:54-56. Yes eclipses are predictable and earthquakes happen and we know when comets are passing by, however God created all of these things and uses them to be signs for those of us who believe.

First off, MTG should re-read Luke 12:54-56. I don’t think it says what she thinks it does.

But more importantly, I think signs and wonders appeal to charlatans like MTG precisely because they have no content of their own. The event itself is striking, but its meaning is wide open for whatever claims people want to make.

So America should repent? OK, how about we repent our long history of racism? our wasteful burning of fossil fuels? our cruelty towards refugees who arrive at our border seeking help? our willingness to let people die of preventable causes rather than provide medical care? the vast gulf between our rich and our poor?

No? Not what you wanted us to repent? Show me what part of the eclipse points out same-sex marriage or drag shows or socialism or letting people use the “wrong” bathrooms.

And what counts as a sign that demands interpretation? As several people have pointed out, the recent earthquake was centered in New Jersey, not far from the Bedminster golf club of a noted Bible salesman. Could that be what God is angry about?

Oh, and what about this sign? During the previous administration, God sent an actual plague that killed over a million Americans. The deaths continue to be concentrated in counties that support that leader. Is that something to interpret?

When MTG talks about “those of us who believe”, she means authoritarian communities, where some leader is empowered to define a sign and attach an interpretation to it without debate. As soon as the meaning is open to discussion, though, the underlying emptiness of the “sign” quickly becomes apparent.

and the World Central Kitchen attack

This is the subject of the featured post.

and Caitlin Clark

In the women’s NCAA basketball tournament, both the Iowa/Connecticut final-four game Friday and the Iowa/South Carolina championship last night set records for TV ratings. Final numbers for last night’s game aren’t in yet, but Friday’s game drew 14.2 million viewers, making it the most-watched basketball game ever on ESPN.

Friday’s blockbuster matchup with a controversial finish peaked at 17 million viewers, surpassing every NBA Finals and MLB World Series game last year. It was only topped by five college football games in 2023. Meanwhile, no Daytona 500 race or Masters Tournament final round has exceeded Friday’s numbers since 2013. Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals between the Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors beat Iowa vs. UConn with 18.59 million viewers, but it was aired on ABC.

People who don’t watch sports usually don’t grasp the soap-opera aspect of being a fan. You watch not just for the competition and the beauty of the sport, but because you’re in the middle of a story and want to see how it comes out. Like soap opera, each episode/game answers some questions, but raises others that will keep you watching future games.

Women’s sports have languished behind men’s sports largely because of the inherent chicken/egg problem of attracting new fans: If you haven’t been watching, you don’t know what questions the next game is supposed to be answering.

This year, the stardom of Iowa’s Caitlin Clark got women’s basketball over the hump. Once you started watching, you also began to wonder about Paige Bueckers, Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso, and a bunch of other stars. You might continue to follow them in the WNBA or watch next year’s college games.

Women’s basketball is on the map now.

and trials

It increasingly looks like Trump is actually going to face a criminal trial. The fake-business-records-to-cover-up-paying-off-the-porn-star case is due to start next week.

That may not be the case you’d really like to see. The Mar-a-Lago documents case is more open-and-shut, and the two January 6 conspiracy cases go to the heart of Trump’s assault on democracy. But it is a real indictment of a real crime. If any other ex-president faced such a thing, it would be extraordinary. We’ve just gotten used to taking Trump’s wrongdoing for granted.

You can tell Trump himself is worried, because he’s acting out. He’s been attacking the judge’s adult daughter, and now says that he is willing to go to jail on the free-speech principle that he can attack anybody he wants, no matter what the judge’s gag order says.

Trump says a lot of things, and most of them turn out not to be true. I think he’ll whimper like a small child if he has to go to a real jail. I also think Judge Merchan will have to do something to establish who is in control of his courtroom.


The drama of Trump’s bond isn’t over yet. So, two weeks ago, he was supposed to come up with nearly half a billion dollars to secure the civil fraud judgment against him while he appealed. But then at the last minute, a NY appeals court lowered it to $175 million and gave him ten more days to come up with it, which he appeared to do.

The coverage came from Knight Specialty Insurance, whose CEO is Don Hankey, the “king of subprime car loans” and a major Republican donor. State AG Letitia James noticed that Knight is “not an admitted carrier in New York, and lacks the certificate of qualification required by New York Insurance Law Section 1111” so she challenged the sufficiency of the bond.

So now the question isn’t whether Trump has the money, it’s whether Knight does.


Steve Bannon, you may recall, was criminally charged in a scheme to defraud people who wanted to build chunks of Trump’s border wall with private funding. Trump pardoned him, so he wasn’t convicted with his co-conspirators, one of whom was recently sentenced to more than four years in prison. (Think about the weirdness of that for a second: Somebody defrauds your supporters, so you pardon them.)

But presidential pardons don’t get you out of state court, so Bannon is scheduled to go to trial in New York in May.

and you also might be interested in …

The House goes back to work today, which means something will have to happen with Ukraine funding. Speaker Mike Johnson is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t, so he might as well do the right thing. But we’ll see.


A group of psychologists, gerontologists, and other mental-health professionals explain why Trump’s dementia symptoms are far more worrying than anything about Biden.

what I feel is happening right now is that we’re being gaslit. The press is pathologizing Biden’s normal signs of aging, and they’re normalizing Trump’s blatant signs of of dementia. And so the people are really being told a kind of double lie. Either it’s twice as many people believe Biden is not as cognitively fit as Trump. Or we have the tired old “two old men” narrative, you know, we have a gerontocracy. And the point is that, look, we’re talking about a tale of two brains here. Biden’s brain is aging, Trump’s brain is dementing. We’re comparing apples to rotted oranges here. They’re not the same.

One example I found persuasive is the Nancy/Nikki incident:

The Dementia Care Society says that a sign of advanced dementia is when you start combining people and generations. You literally mash people together into one person. … Trump showed us the combination of people when he made Nancy Pelosi and Nikki Haley one person. It wasn’t a slip of the tongue, okay? It wasn’t that he meant to say one name and he said the other. He gave a speech about the person I’m running against in this primary who was responsible for security at the Capitol. He actually confused the two people. You see the difference?


The Trump Media stock meltdown seems to be underway. It began publicly trading under the symbol DJT on March 26, and jumped up above $70 a share on the 27th. It closed Friday at $40.59. Last I checked this morning, it was $36.52.

DJT’s main problem is that the underlying business is worthless. The usual start-up story is that a company may be losing money right now, but its revenues and user base are growing fast, so profitability is going to happen eventually. DJT is losing money now, isn’t growing, and has no plausible plan to ever make money.

Meanwhile, it’s paying six-figure salaries to a small band of Trump loyalists, and a bunch of stakeholders are suing each other.


WaPo speculates on Trump’s plan to end the Ukraine War, which he has said he could do in 24 hours. The gist: Russia gets to keep Crimea and some section of eastern Ukraine. Ukraine gets … I’m not sure what. And the US drops its sanctions in an effort to make Russia less dependent on China.

The Munich analogy gets way over-used, but this does sound awfully Munich-like.


After much angst and fanfare, No Labels is not going to run a candidate in 2024.

The underlying problem of No Labels is that it reads the electorate wrong. Yes, most people do wish that the two major parties would compromise and govern, rather than posture and logjam. But that desire for compromise has no content on particular issues. There is no centrist philosophy that informs centrist positions on economic and cultural matters, and no centrist vision of America’s future.

Worse, most of the specific positions centrist politicians stake out are actually compromises already proposed by Democrats and rejected by Republicans. Take the budget deficit. Want to split the difference between Democratic tax increases and Republican spending cuts? Good luck with that; Obama already tried it.


The lack of a No Labels candidate means RFK Jr. is the only significant third-party option. I think the way to run against him is to let him talk. He’s a loon who never met a conspiracy theory he didn’t like. The more people see him, the less they’re going to want him to be president.


Jon Tester’s seat in Montana might decide the Senate majority. (Democrats currently hold a 51-49 advantage, but the seat Joe Manchin is retiring from is considered unwinnable.) This week WaPo published a weird and complicated story about the main Republican challlenger, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy.

It’s about the bullet in his forearm, which he says he picked up in Afghanistan but never reported. Then he later told a park ranger a story about shooting himself accidentally in a national park. That lie was technically a crime, but the statute of limitations has passed. As to why he covered up the wound to begin with, I’m still confused.

and let’s close with something natural

One of the best photo contests online is Smithsonian Magazine’s. Here we see a glacial lake in Denali National Park in Alaska.

Advanced development

A developed country is not a place where the poor have cars. It’s where the rich use public transportation.

– Gustavo Petro, then Mayor of Bogotá

This week’s featured post is “The Supreme Court will have to carry this case to term“.

This week everybody was talking about the Key Bridge collapse

My wife and I drive past Baltimore at least twice a year, and we disagree about whether we’ve ever been on the Key Bridge. (Usually we take the I-895 tunnel.) Nonetheless, I’ve seen an exit for the bridge many, many times, and it feels like a real place to me.

Anyway, the bridge’s collapse looks like a series of unfortunate events: A big container ship lost power, lost control of its steering, and rammed the bridge, bringing it down. Some quick work closing the bridge to traffic saved a lot of lives. (In the video, you can see the last few cars and trucks getting across.) The lives not saved were workers doing maintenance late at night. All six were Central American migrants here legally.

The Port of Baltimore, one of the East Coast’s busiest harbors, is closed until the wreckage can be cleared away. That’s going to have economic consequences all over the country.


What should happen next is fairly obvious: rebuild. Baltimore needs its outer beltway. People (like me) who drive down the east coast do not need or want to add to the city’s congestion. And the two alternate routes are tunnels where it’s illegal to carry hazardous materials. If this bridge were in a red state, Congress would quickly approve bipartisan funding and the rebuilding process would begin.

But Maryland is a blue state and Baltimore is the kind of city Republicans like to demonize. So nothing will be simple.


The immediate media response to the disaster illustrated the disadvantage pundits labor under when they care about facts.

TV talking heads who were trying to be honest and responsible had to admit they didn’t know what had happened or why. Not so, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who instantly raised the issue of whether this was a terrorist attack. Misogynist Andrew Tate (who had been successfully deplatformed from social media until Elon Musk brought him back) declared the event a “cyber attack” and predicted a “Black Swan event” would follow. Alex Jones then upped the ante, announcing “WW3 has already started.”

Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo immediately thought of “the potential for wrongdoing or the potential for foul play given the wide open border”. Utah legislator and candidate for governor Phil Lyman tweeted, “This is what happens when you have Governors who prioritize diversity over the wellbeing and security of citizens.” Matt Schlapp of the American Conservative Union pointed at “drug-addled” employees and Covid lockdowns as possible causes. Both the Baltimore mayor and the Maryland governor are Black, which has made them tempting targets.

But remember: All the local emergency response people performed admirably. Eventually we’ll find out the root causes, which quite probably have nothing to do with the mayor or governor. And the central victims of the tragedy — the people who died — were migrants doing hard jobs.

I wish Fox Business had interviewed me. I could have raised my theory that God was angry over the blasphemy of the Trump Bible. It makes as much sense as anything else.

and the Supreme Court

The mifepristone case is the subject of the featured post. But another outrage got comparatively little coverage: the Court’s foot-dragging on a South Carolina gerrymandering case.

More than a year ago, a three-judge panel ruled that the congressional districts drawn by the South Carolina legislature were an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. In particular, Black voters were intentionally moved out of the 1st district, currently represented by Republican Nance Mace.

South Carolina appealed to the Supreme Court almost exactly a year ago, and the Court has done nothing. But while the Court was “considering” the appeal, nobody else could do anything either. So there is no alternative map, and the electoral process has to move forward, with the state required to mail overseas and military ballots by April 27 for the primary June 1.

Thursday the three-judge panel relented, giving the state the OK to use the racially gerrymandered map for this election cycle. Quite possibly, this will result in an ill-gotten House seat for the Republicans.

MSNBC’s Chris Hayes was apoplectic about this:

We see what they’re doing. We know the conservative majority of this Supreme Court decided to let Black voters continue to be discriminated against in South Carolina this year in violation of the Constitution

This was part of a larger segment where Hayes also discussed the Court helping Trump stall his federal January 6 case until after the election.

and other right-wing freakouts

The Fox News silo worked itself into a lather about the ways Joe Biden has “disrespected” Easter. Jay Kuo explains two that Trump raged about in one tweet. The marketer of the Trump Bible described these actions as “blasphemous” and “examples of the Biden Administration’s years-long assault on the Christian faith”.

First, Biden proclaimed Easter as Transgender Day of Visibility. OK, Biden did make a proclamation recognizing the Transgender Day of Visibility, which has been on March 31 since it was established in 2009. Easter, which is the first Sunday after the first full moon after the vernal equinox, happened to fall on March 31 this year, as it tends to about one year in every 23. If this upsets you, you should blame the Sun and Moon, not Biden.

BTW. The whole idea that Christianity has something to do with gender Identities is suspect. No matter how hard people work to inject their bigotries into the Bible, their bigotries remain their bigotries, not their religious convictions.

Second, Biden supposedly banned religious designs from the White House Easter-egg art contest. This also is true, sort of. But religious designs have been banned from the contest for 47 years, including the four Trump-administration Easters. The contest, it turns out, is partially funded by the Department of Agriculture in cooperation with the American Egg Board as a promotional event for eggs. (There had to be a propaganda purpose somewhere, right?) AEB President Emily Metz explains:

So when we say, “can’t be overtly religious”, we just can’t be seen to be promoting one religion over the other, the same way we can’t be seen to be promoting one political viewpoint or ideology over the other. We have to be totally neutral in everything we do and have it just be focused on egg promotion and marketing activities.

If you ever find yourself wondering why MAGA conservatives can’t raise any outrage over climate change or mass shootings, just remember that they have far more important things to get upset about.

and Ronna McDaniel

NBC and MSNBC briefly employed former RNC head Ronna Romney McDaniel, until protests from the staff convinced the executives to reverse course.

A day after NBC chief political analyst Chuck Todd told “Meet the Press” viewers that McDaniel “has credibility issues that she still has to deal with,” hosts on the network’s cable affiliate — including Rachel Maddow, Nicolle Wallace, Joy Reid, Joe Scarborough, Lawrence O’Donnell and Jen Psaki — echoed the rebuke, citing her support of Donald Trump’s baseless claims of a stolen 2020 presidential election.

The Detroit News reported that McDaniel was on a phone call where Trump pressured Michigan election officials not to certify the election returns from Wayne County. MSNBC host Joy Reid commented:

We welcome Republican voices. The reality is: This isn’t a difference of opinion. She literally backed an illegal scheme to steal an election in the state of Michigan.

The rationale for hiring McDaniel in the first placed was summarized by NBCUniversal Group Chairman Cesar Conde:

Conde said in his memo that the decision to bring McDaniel on board was made “because of our deep commitment to presenting our audiences with a widely diverse set of viewpoints and experiences, particularly during these consequential times. We continue to be committed to the principle that we must have diverse viewpoints on our programs, and to that end, we will redouble our efforts to seek voices that represent different parts of the political spectrum.”

David Roberts, who has no connection to NBC, summed up my point of view:

The basic dilemma facing media, which they are still trying to wriggle around (see: the McDaniel affair), is that elevating voices genuinely representative of MAGA means tolerating lies, bigotry, & anti-democratic sentiment. You can’t have one without the other.

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I had expected the Right not to start their campaign against the 22nd Amendment (which stops presidents from running for a third term) until Trump had actually won his second. But no.

Conservatives have gritted their teeth for years as the Left, in their hatred of Trump, has attempted to pervert the meaning of first the Twenty-fifth Amendment and, more recently, the Fourteenth Amendment. The case for repealing the Twenty-second Amendment is far more straightforward: As with Prohibition, it is simply a matter of finding the will to get rid of a bad idea that needlessly limits Americans’ freedom.

And don’t worry about him being five months older in 2028 than Biden is now because of “the glaringly obvious differences between the men in their brain power, physical strength, and ability to walk in a straight line”.

They’re clearly not seeing the fat, out-of-shape Trump I see, or listening to the incoherent speeches I hear.

The motivating vision here is of the Great Leader as president for life. Anything that stands in the way will have to go.


Crypto-currency fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for a multi-billion-dollar scheme that caused the collapse of FTX, the crypto exchange Bankman-Fried founded. He simultaneously ran a hedge fund that made risky bets with clients’ assets.

The FTX fraud has no direct connection to the Trump real-estate fraud, but it does illustrate a related point: Fraud is fraud, whether the target loses money or not. The FTX collapse started when the relationship to the hedge fund was exposed by CoinDesk. But if everyone had stayed ignorant, the risky bets might well have paid off and everyone would still have their money. That wouldn’t make the whole scheme any less fraudulent.


Trump misbehaved in his typical democracy-threatening ways this week. He repeatedly attacked the adult daughter of the judge in the Stormy Daniels case. And he reposted on Truth Social a video involving a truck with a life-sized full-color back-gate image of Joe Biden bound and gagged.

Joyce Vance:

Imagine the impact all of this is having on potential witnesses and jurors in the criminal cases against Trump. If Trump can get away with threatening a Judge’s daughter, if he can do this to the President of the United States, then what’s going to happen to them if they take the witness stand against him or vote to convict?

I don’t know whether Judge Juan Merchan could scare Trump straight with a few days of revoked bail pretrial detention, or whether that’s what Trump wants to happen, the better to make his victimhood case to the voters. But I’m starting to think the experiment is worth trying.


The October 7 attacks unified Israel, but that unity is starting to come undone again. Sunday evening, thousands protested in Jerusalem.

But an issue most Americans never think about could be what brings down Netanyahu’s coalition: the exemption of ultra-orthodox yeshiva students from the draft.


Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich has now been under arrest in Russia for a year. Many voices in America noted the anniversary, but one did not: Trump. America-First clearly has an exception when it comes to Putin’s Russia.


I had no idea how close we are to dealing with driverless trucks.

By the end of this year, the trucks will for the first time start traveling alone, without human minders like Jenkins, as two major companies — Aurora and Kodiak Robotics — launch fully autonomous trucks in Texas. …

By default, driverless passenger vehicles and trucks can ride anywhere in the United States, unless a state explicitly says they can’t. That means companies can test and operate their vehicles across most of the country. Two dozen states, including Texas, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, specifically allow driverless operations, according to data compiled by Aurora, while another 16 states have no regulations specific to autonomous vehicles.

The number of jobs that could be replaced here is in the millions.

Here’s what I predict: The overall accident rate of autonomous trucks will be lower than human-driven trucks, but they will have different accidents. The question is what the public will do when somebody dies in a way that would never have happened if a human were involved.


Kat Abu’s summary of the week on Fox News. And I just discovered a similarly guilty pleasure: Jeff Tiedrich’s “This week in stupid“.

and let’s close with something

For reasons I explained in the teaser, I’ve had to cut corners this week. The closing is supposed to be orthogonal to the news, with a touch of the humorous, amazing, uplifting, or silly. I don’t have one this week, so please help me out: Talk among yourselves about suitable closings for a week like this one.

Public investment

The great improvement in health that high-income countries experienced in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries was not a result of better medicine — as William McNeill claimed — or even economic growth per se. It was, rather, the consequence of political decisions to make massive investments in drinking water, sanitation, housing and poverty reduction.

– Jonathan Kennedy, Pathogenesis: A history of the world in eight plagues

This week’s featured posts are “Is Donald Trump Still Rich?” and “What Republicans Want“. The two posts together are quite long, so I’ll be a little terser than usual in this weekly summary.

I intend the quote above as a general comment on the House Study Committee’s report on its FY 2025 budget proposals (the subject of “What Republicans Want”). If 19th century leaders had demonized “spending” the way the HSC does, we’d still be having cholera epidemics.

This week everybody was talking about Trump’s finances

At the last minute, the NY Appeals Court lowered Trump’s bond to $175 million and gave him ten more days to pay. My take on the Trump-bond issue is in one of the featured posts.

The other Trump-related thing happening today is a hearing on his New York criminal case, the one concerning the fraudulent business records that hid his payoff to Stormy Daniels prior to the 2016 election. What most observers expect to come out of today’s hearing is a trial date in April.

and funding the government

We finally have an FY 2024 budget. President Biden signed a keep-the-government open bill Saturday morning.

House conservatives are of course unhappy that the government is going to keep governing. Marjorie Taylor Greene filed a motion to recall Speaker Johnson, but did it in such a way that it won’t immediately come to the floor. She’s being coy about exactly what would cause her to force a vote.

and Gaza

The UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for a Ramadan ceasefire. The US abstained. Meanwhile, Israel agreed to a US proposal to exchange prisoners for hostages, but Hamas says there are still issues to be resolved.

An excellent Economist article outlines the problems Israel faces.

There is still narrow path out of the hellscape of Gaza. A temporary ceasefire and hostage release could cause a change of Israel’s government; the rump of Hamas fighters in south Gaza could be contained or fade away; and from the rubble, talks on a two-state solution could begin, underwritten by America and its Gulf allies. It is just as likely, however, that ceasefire talks will fail. That could leave Israel locked in the bleakest trajectory of its 75-year existence, featuring endless occupation, hard-right politics and isolation. Today many Israelis are in denial about this, but a political reckoning will come eventually. It will determine not only the fate of Palestinians, but also whether Israel thrives in the next 75 years.

If you are a friend of Israel this is a deeply uncomfortable moment. In October it launched a justified war of self-defence against Hamas, whose terrorists had committed atrocities that threaten the idea of Israel as a land where Jews are safe. Today Israel has destroyed perhaps half of Hamas’s forces. But in important ways its mission has failed.

The left wing of the Democratic Party has been skeptical of Israel for some while now. So it’s not surprising that AOC told Jake Tapper yesterday that Israel had “crossed a threshold” that justifies use of the very serious term “genocide”. Most progressives are reluctant to consider Israel’s post-Holocaust mission as a special case, and instead see the Palestinians as just another victim of Western colonialism. (Among European nations, Ireland in particular identifies with Palestine, casting Israel in the role England played in Irish history, right down to causing a famine.)

What’s new is that the Netanyahu government has alienated such committed pro-Israel Democrats as Chuck Schumer. It seems determined to alienate President Biden as well, as it announced an expansion of West Bank settlements (which the US regards as illegal) during a recent visit by Secretary of State Blinken. In a policy shift, the US recently backed a ceasefire resolution in the UN Security Council, only to see it vetoed by Russia and China.

A recent Pew Research poll found Americans marginally supporting Israel’s conduct of the war, with 38% finding it either completely or somewhat acceptable, compared to 34% who found it completely or somewhat unacceptable. This is a remarkably small margin given Americans’ longstanding sympathy with Israel, and it could quickly vanish if the famine that the World Food Programme calls “imminent” becomes a reality that Americans regularly see on their TVs.


Jared Kushner is thinking about Gaza’s “valuable waterfront property” that might become available for development after Israel moves current residents to the Negev Desert. (Plans for such a move have not been announced. So far, I think, this is just Jared’s fantasy.)

and the Moscow terrorist attack

Armed men attacked a shopping-and-entertainment complex in Moscow Friday while a concert was underway. So far 137 people are known to be dead. An offshoot of ISIS has claimed responsibility, but Putin really wants to link Ukraine to the attack.

and you also might be interested in …


North Carolina Republicans have gotten a lot of bad press nationally for their loony candidate for governor, Mark Robinson. But the rest of the ticket is pretty far out too. Their nominee for State Superintendent of Public Instruction is Michele Morrow, who defeated the incumbent Republican Catherine Truitt in the GOP primary.

She called public schools “socialist indoctrination centers” and accused Truitt of allowing pedophiles to flourish in schools. … Morrow grabbed national attention last week when CNN ran a story highlighting her social media posts that advocated executing prominent Democrats, including Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Instead of trying to equivocate, she doubled down with a tweet accusing Obama of committing treason for drone attacks on “hundreds of innocent Muslims in Yemen.”

North Carolina is not that red a state any more. Due to gerrymandering, its legislature has a substantial Republican majority. But the state also has a two-term Democratic governor (Roy Cooper, who can’t run for a third term), and Trump carried it in 2020 by less than 75K votes out of more than 5 million.


Facing attention from Congress (particularly Bernie Sanders), a couple big drug makers (AstraZeneca and Boehringer Ingelheim) cut the price of their inhalers to $35 per month from as much $645. The other two major suppliers (Teva and GSK) so far have not responded.


There’s a lot of competition to be the wackiest red-state legislature, but Tennessee is definitely in the running.

Last Monday, the Tennessee Senate has passed SB2691, including an amendment “to prohibit the intentional injection, release, or dispersion, by any means, of chemicals, chemical compounds, substances, or apparatus within the borders of this state into the atmosphere with the express purpose of affecting temperature, weather, or the intensity of the sunlight”. According to The Tennessean, the amendment is based on the chemtrail conspiracy theory, which holds that the contrails of airplanes contain chemicals “sprayed for nefarious purposes undisclosed to the general public”.

But don’t worry, good citizens of Tennessee, your legislature is on the case.

and let’s close with something unexpected

Once in a while, days don’t go the way you planned. Buzzerilla collects a few examples.