No, lifelong Republicans have not established a liberal Deep State at the FBI.
In 2021, I raised the question “What makes a good conspiracy theory?” People obviously do conspire to do bad things from time to time, so we shouldn’t reject out of hand every claim that some group of malefactors is conspiring. But can we at least limit ourselves to good conspiracy theories, i.e., ones that at least have a chance to be true?
In that post I identified one clear marker of a bad conspiracy theory: The size of the conspiracy has to keep increasing as more facts come out. The deeper people dig, the larger the conspiracy has to grow to account for all the pieces that don’t fit the original theory. (Really good conspiracy theories, on the other hand, tend to shrink. The better you understand how things work, the more you realize that a few well-placed conspirators really could pull this off.)
With that principle in mind, every time a conspiracy theorist says “They must be in on it too”, you should reevaluate the whole conspiracy. If you would have rejected a massive they’re-all-in-on-it claim at the start, you shouldn’t let yourself drift into accepting one without a good reason.
Lately we’ve been seeing a lot of expansion in the Right’s Biden-crime-family conspiracy theory. Consider David Weiss, the Trump-appointed US attorney that Trump-appointed Attorney General Bill Barr assigned to run the Hunter Biden investigation. Weiss was one of the few Trump US attorneys Biden left in place, probably because it would have looked bad to pick his own guy to investigate his son.
Weiss filed some tax charges and a firearms charge against Hunter, and negotiated a plea deal that most experts say is not out of line with what any defendant in a similar situation could get: repay the taxes and accept two years probation, but don’t go to jail.
The conspiracy theorists’ initial reaction was that Merrick Garland must have blocked Weiss from filing the real charges (i.e., massive bribery schemes that implicated his father). But Weiss himself has been going out of his way to deny that this happened. So Weiss must be in on it.
Same thing for Trump-appointed FBI Director Chris Wray, who was grilled by the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday. “Are you protecting the Bidens?” Rep. Matt Gaetz demanded. Republicans also accused Wray of persecuting Donald Trump, the January 6 rioters, and conservatives in general.
“If you are a Trump, you will be prosecuted. If you are a Biden, you will be protected,” said Rep. Wesley Hunt, claiming a double standard in the justice system.
Wray seemed to have a hard time taking such claims seriously.
“The idea that I’m biased against conservatives seems somewhat insane to me given my own personal background,” said Wray, a Republican who served in President George W. Bush’s Justice Department.
Equally insane is the idea that the FBI (in Sean Hannity‘s words) “has now sadly been transformed into nothing short of an arm of the Democratic Party.”
As I’ve explained in the past, there really is a Deep State — an entrenched bureaucracy that resists certain kinds of top-down change — but it arises in a fairly natural way: The reason young people decide to join an organization and commit themselves to it (the way you have to to rise in the ranks) is that the organization’s mission harmonizes with their values.
So if direction from on high conflicts with an organization’s perceived mission, people up and down the chain of command will resist: Items will fall off the agenda, orders will be carried out in ineffective ways, and so on. Probably the resisters don’t even need to conspire, because people at all levels just know that “that’s not how we do things here”.
Top-down pressure can change the culture of an organization, but it requires either consistent attention over a very long time or a large-scale purge of the rank-and-file employees. (Trump is planning such a purge if he gets another term: “MAGA Republicans believe that they will be able to enact their programme only if they first defang the deep state by making tens of thousands of top civil servants sackable. Around 50,000 officials would be newly subject to being fired at will, under a proposed scheme known as Schedule F.”)
You could see that Deep State resistance happening in the Trump EPA. Trump appointed directors who wanted to give industry more freedom to pollute, and that’s not why people chose to make a career at the EPA. Similarly, the Pentagon resisted Trump’s efforts to draw its troops into domestic politics.
Now think about why idealistic young people make a career at the FBI: They want to catch the bad guys. Fundamentally, it’s a rules-and-punishments mindset, which tends to appeal to conservatives. (Stereotypically, liberals are more driven to understand the bad guys, and to figure out why they don’t find places in lawful society.) That’s why law enforcement in general tends to be a bastion of conservatism. (Think about it: When you meet someone and find out that they’re a cop, what expectations do you have about their opinions?)
So yes, there would naturally be a Deep State in the FBI: a conservative Deep State. The fantasy of a liberal Deep State at the FBI, led by lifelong Republicans like Chris Wray and James Comey, is truly nutty.
So what’s the FBI been up to as it investigates Donald Trump? Not persecuting conservatives, but catching the bad guy.
The Weekly Sift 
Comments
Politics are high stakes games and perception becomes reality. Both sides are playing to win. Media is biased on both sides.
When you negotiate a big employment contract will millions at stake legal maneuvering would take forever but reciprocal approach always works. What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
Hunter laptop is a laptop from hell. It was known to FBI before election and could have impacted election. A court should decide.
Trump was pompous about documents and a court should decide with a judge not appointed by Trump.
We the people must take back power from the two parties and its politicians!
I’m glad comments like those from “Prof Tom” are left up on the Sift: they provide such excellent examples of the conspiratorial insanity that Doug’s talking about.
“Are left up” – says more about you Geoff and why it’s hard to unite our people
The assertion that all commentary has equal merit and thus deserves to be platformed is one of the more toxic aspects of contemporary social media. Inevitably, it’s the untethered-to-reality flood of rantings that drive serious, thoughtful, well-considered and factually-based participation away. Look no farther than what’s become of Twitter and the mass exodus to other options.
And they’re why the only forums that enjoy long-term success have moderators. At some point, enough is enough, and an adult needs to step in. You want to “unite our people”? Let’s start by insisting that all discussion be required to be fact-based and rational. If anything, Geoff’s characterization of the comments to which he refers is charitable and his effort to find value in them admirable.
Generally, the only way to get your comment removed from the Sift is if you abuse the other commenters. I could imagine changing that policy, but so far it seems to be working for me.
Finally, a simple uncluttered definition of the deep state.
As a general rule of human dynamics, we see a reflection of ourselves in the world around us. So many of the MAGA accusations have come to reveal their own thinking and aims that at this point, I hear their own intentions in what they project elsewhere.
In general, your definition of what makes a good conspiracy theory is a good one. But I can think of instances where large numbers of people have joined in nefarious acts and then acted to cover them up. Many genocides might be characterized in this way.
A more nuanced version: Any good conspiracy theory has to provide a motivation for ALL the conspirators, one that is adequate to inspire each of them to do what they do (which includes not defecting from the conspiracy). The larger the conspiracy grows, the harder that gets.
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